On the 24th, it will be 11 months since Russia began its military invasion of Ukraine.
While the Russian military appears to be preparing for a large-scale attack under the new commander, Ukraine is appealing to Western countries for the provision of tanks with high offensive capabilities, aiming for a counteroffensive. .
Russia, which is planning to invade Ukraine, is said to be preparing for a large-scale attack by appointing Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov, the head of the army's uniformed group, as commander of the military invasion in January, rebuilding the chain of command. I have a point of view.
In addition to continuing attacks in Donetsk Oblast in the east and Zaporizhia Oblast in the south, the Russian military has been conducting joint exercises in northern Ukraine and adjacent Belarus since January 16 to shake up the military.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said during a visit to South Africa on the 23rd, "What is happening in Ukraine is no longer a hybrid war, it is a real war. The West is trying to destroy everything in Russia." He strongly restrained the Western side that supports Ukraine.
In response, Ukraine, which has high offensive capabilities due to its reversal offensive, is appealing to Western countries for further military support, such as requesting the provision of German-made tanks "Leopard 2" owned by European countries.
Regarding "Leopard 2", the German government postponed the decision whether to provide it to Ukraine, but the foreign ministers of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in the Baltics called on Germany to provide it immediately, and Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki announced on the 23rd that it would seek permission from Germany to provide its own Leopard 2.
In the future, the focus will be on whether "Leopard 2" will be provided to Ukraine.
Expert ``Both sides are timing the next big offensive''
Yuyuki Hasegawa, a researcher at the Ministry of Defense Research Institute for Defense who is familiar with Russian security, said that the current situation in Ukraine is in a stalemate, and said, ``Both Russia and Ukraine are waiting for the timing to launch their next major offensive. We are at the stage where we are,” he said.
Regarding the offensive and defense around Bakhmut, one of the Ukrainian strongholds in the eastern Donetsk region, which the Russian side is aiming to seize, "The Russian side is gradually expanding the occupied area. We are forced to make a difficult choice whether to spare the money."
On the other hand, regarding the fact that the Russian military is deploying troops in Belarus, which adjoins Ukraine in the north, under the pretext of joint exercises, he said, "It is believed that the aim is to put pressure on the capital Kyiv and the Zelensky administration to place the Ukrainian army in the north. He said that he was trying to shake the Ukrainian side by dispersing its forces.
Regarding future prospects, Hasegawa points out that the Russian side has appointed General Gerasimov, the head of the army's uniformed group, as the new supreme commander to lead the military invasion. A person who has proposed and realized a new concept of , and can be said to be the `` last trump card '', his failure cannot be forgiven. , pointed out the possibility that the Russian army would go on a fierce attack in search of a clear victory.
On the other hand, regarding the Ukrainian side, he said, "If it continues for a long time, it will become increasingly difficult to maintain a high level of interest in international public opinion. It will be necessary to achieve great results during the limited period of continued military assistance from the United States and Europe." The government may be impatient as well," he said.
After that, he added, "Ukraine is now calling for full-scale military assistance from the West, with a stronger tone than before, and the West is also beginning to provide higher-order military assistance in line with this." He pointed out that the key to the large-scale recapture operation in the spring will be the extent to which Western countries will provide military support, such as the provision of tanks.