Demonstrations, closed schools and dribbling trains: France is preparing for an eventful day.

"A rough Thursday", as the Minister of Transport, Clément Beaune, summed it up, even before the traffic forecasts fell.

Prognosis confirmed by the SNCF, which provides for "very strongly disturbed" traffic with one TGV in three, or even one in five depending on the line, and barely one TER in ten on average.

The Paris metro will also be reduced to the essentials, with three lines closed, ten others open "only at peak times" and a "risk of saturation" on the last three, according to the RATP.

The sky will not be spared, since 20% of flights should be canceled at Orly airport, where "delays are to be expected" for the connections that will be maintained, warned the DGAC.

A display panel at Roissy-Charles de Gaulle terminal 2 during an air traffic controller movement on September 16, 2022 © JULIEN DE ROSA / AFP/Archives

Those who opt for the car will still be able to find fuel, even if refineries and oil depots are called to cease their activities for 24 hours.

Many will have to keep their children, however, as 70% of primary school teachers will be on strike and many schools will be entirely closed - "at least a third" in Paris - according to their main union, the Snuipp-FSU.

In the secondary too, "we are moving towards a very well-attended strike", indicates the Snes-FSU.

Blockades of high schools are particularly expected, several youth organizations calling to join the day of action organized by the eight major trade unions.

Recognizing that it was impossible to predict what the height of the mobilization in the private sector would be, the general secretary of the CGT, Philippe Martinez, however anticipated Wednesday on France 2 that there would be "in certain large groups, rates of strikers who will be around 60, 70%", and wanted a renewable movement "wherever possible".

Philippe Martinez after an interview at Matignon on the pension reform project, January 4, 2023 © Christophe ARCHAMBAULT / AFP/Archives

discordant voices

United for the first time in twelve years, they plan rallies in more than 200 cities and hope for a "massive" mobilization exceeding "one million" demonstrators.

A symbolic gauge which would give impetus to a social movement called to register in the long term.

The police unsurprisingly set the bar lower: several media have reported a note from Territorial Intelligence banking on a range of 550,000 to 750,000 demonstrators, including 50,000 to 80,000 in the capital.

Interprofessional mobilization for wages and employment, in Paris on January 27, 2022 © Thomas SAMSON / AFP/Archives

Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin announced on Wednesday that more than 10,000 police and gendarmes would be mobilized, including 3,500 in Paris, where the authorities expect the arrival of "a few thousand" elements who could be violent, he said.

Faced with this broad challenge, the government is working to defend its reform, like the Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne, boasting to the National Assembly "a project of justice" and affirming that "four out of ten French people, the the most fragile, the most modest, those who have difficult jobs, will be able to leave before the age of 64".

Or his Minister of Labor, Olivier Dussopt, taking over in the Hemicycle to promote the rise in small pensions - "we protect the purchasing power of the elderly" - key to a political agreement with the right.

Labor Minister Olivier Dussopt during questions to the government at the National Assembly in Paris on January 17, 2023 © Thomas SAMSON / AFP/Archives

Arguments that struggle to convince public opinion, which polls still show as a majority opposed to the postponement of the legal age.

A hundred artists and intellectuals, including Annie Ernaux, Nobel Prize for Literature, the actress Adèle Haenel or the writer Nicolas Mathieu, wrote a column in the left-wing weekly Politis to denounce an "archaic and unequal reform ".

Even within the majority, discordant voices are raised, such as that of deputy Patrick Vignal: "If it does not change, I will not vote for this law".

His colleague Barbara Pompili either "could not vote for", because "at this stage" the project involves too many "social injustices".

Barbara Pompili in Brussels on May 2, 2022 © JOHN THYS / AFP/Archives

Doubts which contrast with the unity displayed by the left-wing opposition, whose leaders gathered in a meeting on Tuesday evening urged their troops to "shake the walls of the Elysée".

© 2023 AFP