Moving red lines: how the West is expanding the range of weapons supplied to Ukraine

The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, called on the allies to transfer to Kyiv any weapons that the Armed Forces of Ukraine can use.

She made such a statement in an interview with CNN on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos.

“As you know, (by itself. -

) The European Union does not have any military means.

But I have been saying from the very beginning of this horrific conflict that Ukraine should receive all kinds of military equipment that it needs and can handle, including advanced systems, ”the head of the EC said, answering the question whether she supports the transfer of German tanks to Kyiv Leopard.

Von der Leyen added that from the upcoming meeting of representatives of Western countries at Ramstein airbase, she expects "great progress and a much-needed decision" regarding assistance to Kyiv.

The aforementioned conference on the situation in Ukraine is scheduled for January 20.

According to political scientist Alexander Asafov, the words of the EC chairman about the possibility of supplying Kyiv with "any weapon" indicate an expansion of the discussion on this issue.

“Von der Leyen's statement does not directly affect the supply of weapons.

However, it indicates the expansion of the scope of the discussion, there is an attempt to bring the issue of supplying military assistance to Kyiv to a new level, since now it is considered acceptable to talk about the possibility of using any weapon, ”the source said.

In turn, commenting on this statement by the head of the European Commission, the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, asked a rhetorical question: “Von der Leyen called for giving Ukraine any weapon that it can use.

Nuclear, right?

• Ursula von der Leyen

• AP

• © Jean-Francois Badias

On January 17, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken also made important statements regarding the situation in Ukraine.

At a joint press conference with British Foreign Secretary James Cleverley, he said that Western countries are adapting their military assistance to the Ukrainian authorities and are determined that Kyiv will try to succeed on the battlefield.

“If you look at the trajectory - from (MANPADS. -

) Stinger to (ATGM. -

) Javelin, (MLRS. -

) HIMARS, Bradley combat vehicles and Patriot batteries - we consistently supply what Ukraine needs.

And we do this in a way that takes into account the real situation on the battlefield and its predicted development ... The bottom line is that we are determined to make sure that Ukraine has everything it needs to succeed on the battlefield, ”said the head State Department.

In his opinion, the fastest way to bring the conflict "to a just and lasting conclusion", to reach its diplomatic settlement, is to provide Ukraine with a strong position on the battlefield.

Speaking about the meeting in Ramstein, Blinken announced new steps to provide military assistance to Kyiv.

At the same time, he said that Moscow's demand for Kyiv to recognize the new territorial realities cannot become a starting point for negotiations.

"Maximize the conflict"

Analysts note that neither Ursula von der Leyen nor Anthony Blinken have clarified what kind of decisions they expect from the meeting in Ramstein.

However, experts recalled that the most active discussion in the West now is the possibility of sending Western-made tanks to Ukraine.

Thus, on January 13, Bloomberg, citing sources, reported that the German authorities would determine their position regarding the transfer of Leopard tanks to Ukraine before the meeting in Ramstein.

Until recently, Berlin was in no hurry to send such weapons to Kyiv, and also forbade other countries to transfer German-made tanks to Ukraine.

However, according to the American agency, with a high degree of probability, the leadership of Germany at the upcoming meeting will change its mind regarding the supply of Leopard.

• Anthony Blinken

• AP

• © Manuel Balce Ceneta

However, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, in a conversation with Bloomberg, avoided a direct answer to the question about the supply of tanks, noting only that Berlin is now discussing this topic with its allies in a non-public format.

Later, the Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper reported that Scholz was allegedly ready to allow the supply of Leopards if the United States transferred Abrams tanks to Kyiv.

In turn, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, at a regular briefing on January 17, refused to clarify whether the United States intends to supply Ukraine with its tanks.

At the same time, she noted that Washington supports the transfer of any military assistance to Kyiv by its allies.

According to experts, the position of the UK is an important indicator in the matter of Western supplies of tanks to Ukraine.

In mid-January, London announced that it would transfer 14 Challenger 2 tanks to Kyiv in the coming weeks. According to Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, this decision "won't change the course of history", but such a move could prompt Berlin to allow other European countries to provide Ukraine with their Leopard tanks. German production.

It is worth noting that Patrick Sanders, Chief of the General Staff of the British Armed Forces, said in this regard that the transfer of Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine will make the UK "weaker".

“Undoubtedly, our decision will affect our ability to mobilize the armed forces to counter the acute and persistent threat posed by Russia and fulfill our obligations to NATO ... It is critical for us to restore and increase the combat potential of the army in a short time to strengthen the combat capability and maintain its position as a leading NATO ally in Europe, ”The Times quoted Sanders as saying.

Political scientist Alexander Asafov believes that the supply of Western tanks to Ukraine is unlikely to be massive.

“These tanks for Kyiv need to be found somewhere else.

Therefore, the amount of such assistance will not be very significant.

And the task of the West now is not to win on the battlefield, but to prolong the conflict as much as possible.

And for this there is no need to supply everything at once.

It is enough just to ensure a not very intensive flow of arms supplies to Kyiv, ”he said.

• German tank Leopard 2

• AP

• © Michael Sohn

Oleg Matveychev, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Information Policy, Information Technologies and Communications, holds a slightly different point of view.

“The point is not only in the ability of NATO to supply Kyiv with a large amount of equipment, but also in the ability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to use it.

A significant part of the professional army has been knocked out there, there are problems with infrastructure and logistics.

Ukraine simply will not be able to "digest" large volumes of arms supplies.

Figuratively speaking, it is impossible to pour a bucket of water into a three-liter jar, ”the deputy said in an interview with RT.

"Ensure the necessary level of supplies"

According to analysts, an important step towards escalation by the West is the decision of the EU countries, following the United States, to provide Ukraine with the American Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems they have.

Thus, Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte said on January 17 that his country wants to join Washington and Berlin in the issue of supplying Kyiv with air defense systems.

According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Kyiv can already count on three Patriot batteries in total.

According to the head of state, this is only the beginning.

• SAM Patriot

• Legion Media

• © Newspix

It is worth noting that previously Western countries were not ready to transfer the Patriot to Ukraine.

So, back in December, the FRG stated that they were not able to provide such assistance to Kyiv, but less than a month later, Berlin changed its mind.

According to experts, the position of the United States plays an important role in making such decisions.

“In order for the Patriot to show its effectiveness, it is necessary that a layered system be built.

Single complexes will not have any effect.

Patriots are good only in large numbers and when a missile defense system is built at different levels.

This is understood in the West, so the US encourages other countries to send them to Ukraine.

This explains the decision of the Netherlands and the Federal Republic of Germany, ”said Sergey Ermakov, a leading RISS expert, in a conversation with RT.

Analysts state that the West is gradually abandoning any red lines and self-restrictions on the issue of the supply of military equipment to Ukraine.

“In the West, there are now very mobile red lines in determining the range of arms supplies to Kyiv.

Depending on the dynamics of the situation, the US and the EU will decide on the expansion of military assistance.

Another question is whether they will be able to provide the necessary level of supplies and production - there have already been reports about the depletion of stocks of certain types of weapons in Western countries.

But the situation here also does not stand still, so it is very difficult to make any forecasts,” said Alexander Asafov.  

The expert believes that the rejection of the US and the EU from the red lines could lead to a further escalation of the conflict in Ukraine.

“Such a policy can lead to the expansion of the territory of the conflict, which will have very deplorable consequences for Europe.

But since only Europe will face these consequences, the Americans, who determine the policy of the West, do not care too much, ”Asafov concluded.