The attempts by Sweden continue to convince Turkey to say yes to a Swedish NATO membership.

Shortly, a new high-level meeting will be held in Brussels between representatives of Sweden, Finland, Turkey and NATO.

Here, renewed efforts will be made to convince Turkey that Sweden is fulfilling the agreement from last year on expanded security cooperation between the countries.

Bill a pawn in the game

The changes to the law that have been made and are being made in Sweden are also important parts of the Swedish negotiation strategy.

And here the government can shortly point to yet another concrete example.

The government is currently preparing a bill on the criminalization of participation in terrorist organizations, a proposal that has been discussed for a long time but now looks set to become a reality.

A legislative council referral, which criminalizes participation in a terrorist organization, is expected as early as next week, and after a legislative council review, a bill is planned to be put on the Riksdag's table on March 7.

The idea is that the Riksdag should be able to make a decision in the spring and that the new law should be in place this summer – in good time before the NATO summit in Vilnius.

Thus, this law also becomes a pawn in the game about Sweden's NATO membership.

"Gravel thrown in the negotiation process"

But other factors can also influence Turkey to finally say yes to Sweden's and Finland's membership applications.

At the beginning of July, for example, the next NATO summit is held.

Then Sweden and Finland could be formally welcomed as full members.

What will happen with that matter currently seems unclear.

Not least after the recent harsh outcome from Turkish President Erdogan.

The Rojava Committees' actions in Sweden with dolls depicting an executed Erdogan have thrown gravel into the negotiation process and will continue to disrupt it.

However, few believe that these protest actions will have any decisive influence on the outcome.

From the Swedish side, the assessment is made that the fierce tone from Ankara is largely due to the election campaign that is now approaching in Turkey, an election campaign in which security issues are given a lot of space.

At the same time, there are other factors that suggest that Turkey will ultimately say yes to Swedish and Finnish NATO membership.

Broad NATO support for Sweden and Finland

First of all, there is broad support within NATO for bringing in Sweden and Finland as new members.

It would strengthen NATO in a serious security policy situation where Russia is perceived as a growing threat to European security.

It would also be a political success for NATO to expand the alliance in the midst of an ongoing war.

Correspondingly, it would be a loss of prestige if NATO fails to complete this process by this summer's summit in Vilnius.

All this means that the political pressure on Turkey from NATO and individual NATO countries to approve Sweden and Finland will increase as the summit approaches.

Another factor that may play an important, perhaps decisive, role is the deal planned between the US and Turkey with US fighter jets.

President Biden is preparing a proposal to sell F16 planes to Turkey, which could pave the way for a Turkish yes to NATO expansion.

But the deal requires the approval of the US Congress and it is not yet clear if this will be the case.