China's population, which had only been growing, has collapsed.
It is only a matter of time before India loses the world's most populous country.
In addition, various indicators such as fertility rates are changing records to the bad side.
The population decline is 'in 61 years' and the birth rate is 'the lowest since the founding of the country'.
China's population cliff problem is a structural problem.
Also, the lowest fertility rate since the founding of the country
The National Bureau of Statistics of China announced the population at the end of last year, which is 1.41175 billion.
It is important that the growing population has turned to a decreasing trend, and compared to a year ago, it is said that 850,000 people have decreased.
Since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949, the population has decreased only twice.
The first time the population decreased was in 1961, because millions of people starved to death in the great famine caused by the 'Great Leap Forward'.
It was the first time in 61 years that the population had declined.
However, the population decline of 61 years ago is a temporary phenomenon caused by the disastrous failure of Mao Zedong's policies.
On the other hand, the current population decline is due to changes in the population structure, such as a drop in the birth rate itself, and there is a big difference in that it predicts a continued population decline.
It's safe to say that last year was actually the first population decline.
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China's fertility rate is calculated based on 1,000 births.
Looking at the trend of birth rate per 1,000 people, 12.43 (2017) → 10.94 (2018) → 10.48 (2019) → 8.52 (2020) → 7.52 (2021) → 6.77 (2022). is clear
It continues to break the lowest record since the founding of the country.
The total number of newborns was 9.56 million, down 10 million. According to Bloomberg, "China's birth population last year was the lowest since at least the 1950s."
Like us, we are driven to a population cliff, but there is also an analysis of the impact of the corona.
"Birth due to Corona ↓ Death ↑"
There were also a lot of deaths in China last year, and the death rate is said to be the highest since 1976 at 7.37 per 1,000 people.
There is speculation that the number of deaths may increase due to the spread of corona.
The Chinese government, which did not acknowledge corona deaths well, has recently announced a comprehensive number of deaths related to corona. .
December 8 of last year was the day after the 'zero corona' policy was virtually scrapped, and since then, 60,000 people have died in about a month.
Until now, Chinese authorities have only counted deaths from pneumonia or respiratory failure due to corona infection as "corona deaths", but from the 14th, people who died from underlying diseases after infection were also included in the statistics.
This is a death in the hospital, and the number of deaths will be higher if you add cases that died at home.
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However, in Western countries, it is expected to be 10 times more than China's announcement.
Airfinity, a British medical data analysis company, estimated that the death toll would reach 584,000 after China's implementation of the With Corona policy.
There is speculation that young couples are reluctant to get pregnant due to the oppressive atmosphere of the zero corona policy, and the birth rate has been lowered. Corona seems to have had some effect on lowering the birth rate and raising the death rate.
India moves to 'number 1 most populous country'
When the Song Dynasty dominated the Chinese continent, it is said that the population already exceeded 100 million people.
Maybe when India's demographics come out, it's likely to be overturned.
China's population is declining, while India's is growing, so isn't it only a matter of time before it turns over?
Foreign media are also putting out a lot of analysis about China's population decline.
The New York Times published an interview with Professor Wang Feng of the Department of Sociology, an expert on Chinese demographic change at the University of California, USA. It won't be a population," he said.
A red light was also turned on for the Chinese economy.
The engine of the Chinese economy was the population, as it has been driving the Chinese economy with its abundant labor force and strong domestic market.
A declining population can be predicted to pour cold water on China's economy, which is already slowing.
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However, if you look at the details of the population decline, it is more pessimistic, because the decline is steeper than expected and the number of young people is decreasing.
In its 2019 world population projections, the United Nations predicted that India's population will surpass China's by 2027, which has been advanced by about four years.
In addition, the working age population aged 16 to 59, compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, is about 880 million, accounting for 62% of the total population. Ten years ago, the proportion of the population in this age group was 70%.
Failure of population policy leads to demographic cliff
The rapid decline in China's birth rate can be attributed to the failure of population policies.
After the country's founding, as the population soared, food shortages appeared, and in the late 1970s, a coercive population control policy called the 'one family, one child policy' was used. The aftereffects of this policy continue to this day.
Of course, China's population policy has now changed almost 180 degrees.
In 2015, the 'one family, one child policy' that had been maintained for 36 years was abandoned and allowed up to two children, and in 2021, up to three children were allowed.
At the same time, several birth-inducing policies are being put forward.
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