Analysts do not rule out the outbreak of new violence
Questions about the future of Bolsonaria after the riots in Brasilia
Pro-Bolsonaro demonstrators storm the presidential palace.
Reuters
Bolsonaro supporters are protesting the election result.
Reuters
Lola fears for his safety.
EPA
picture
Brazilian democracy has withstood a wave of demonstrations by the most extreme supporters of the far-right former president, Jair Bolsonaro, but the Bolsonarianism may continue, according to analysts who do not rule out the outbreak of new violence.
The Brazilian military did not respond to the constant calls for a coup against the new president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and deputies, senators and rulers from all political stripes chose to stand behind the Brazilian constitution.
The demonstrations that were called for, last Wednesday, in several Brazilian cities, were somewhat shy.
Despite this, riot police were deployed, and were prepared with helicopters in anticipation of any major mobilization.
Agence France-Presse correspondents noted an almost complete absence of demonstrators in Brasilia, Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo, in a scene that completely contradicts the promise of a "giant" march to "restore power" from Lula da Silva.
The arrest of hundreds of demonstrators, and the dismissal of senior officials suspected of conspiring with the rioters, may have simply discouraged Bolsonaro's supporters from taking to the streets, days after riots shocked Brazil.
They did not give up
"I think it would be a mistake to believe that they have completely given up," said Michael Schefter, an analyst with the Inter-American Dialogue Institute.
He adds, "The country is still in a state of bitter polarization, and I do not think that the absence (from the streets) of the Bolsonarians less than a week after January 8th should be interpreted as a sign that the country has united in some way to defend democracy."
Bolsonarian fanaticism is complex
Lula had a narrow lead over Bolsonaro in the October presidential elections, after a campaign that created deep divisions in Brazil.
"Bolsonaro's loss of re-election despite 58 million votes - by the narrowest margin in Brazil's democratic history - says a lot about the underlying risk of unrest," said Mariano Machado, senior analyst for the Americas at risk analysis institute Verisk Maplecroft.
He adds, "The tendency towards a coup does not enjoy the support of the majority."
And Lula himself had confirmed (Thursday) that the storming of the presidential palace, the Congress building and the Supreme Court "was a warning, so that we could be more careful."
He added, "We won elections in which we defeated Bolsonaro, but Bolsonarianism is present here, and Bolsonarianism and Bolsonarian intolerance are complicated, because it does not respect anyone."
The Brazilian President confirmed (Thursday) that he is convinced that the demonstrators who stormed the presidential palace in Brasilia (Sunday) received help from the inside, saying: “I am convinced that the doors of the Planalto Palace were opened so that people could enter, because no door was removed,” adding: “ This means that someone facilitated their entry here.”
He continued, "The truth is that the palace was full of Bolsonaro's supporters and the military."
The movement is still there
Jair Bolsonaro, who has never openly admitted his defeat, denounced the riots (Sunday), but reluctantly.
His supporters were so imbued with his repeated criticisms of the electoral system that many of them became convinced that the victory was stolen from him, just like Trump's supporters in the United States.
Guillermo Casaroes, an analyst at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, believes that the firmness in the government's response - by arresting large numbers of demonstrators, large security reinforcements, and accusing rioters of "terrorism" - discourages the Bolsonarians from moving again.
"Of course, there may still be smaller groups that choose terrorist actions," Casarois says, noting that the movement operates without a clear leadership.
It is likely that most of Bolsonaro's supporters will return "to their homes in the hope of electing Bolsonao in 2026 or moving to a more moderate leader, as is the case in the United States, for example."
Sociologist Gerardo Montero, who is co-authoring a book on Bolsonarianism, considers that the riot movement was not organized enough "for a counterattack".
"The vast majority (of the Bolsonarians) are ordinary people," he told AFP. "They are not equipped to fight. This movement does not have the necessary experience to move forward."
But Michael Schefter believes that "the movement is still there," pointing out that Brazil should expect "more unrest, limited protests, and some violence," adding, "I don't think it will disappear."
• The Brazilian army did not respond to the continuous calls for a coup against the new president, Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, and representatives, senators and rulers of all political spectrums chose to stand behind the Brazilian constitution.
• The arrest of hundreds of demonstrators, and the dismissal of senior government officials suspected of conspiring with the perpetrators of the riots, has simply discouraged Bolsonaro's supporters from taking to the streets, days after riots shocked Brazil.
Reorganization of the security of the presidential residence
The Brazilian government is tightening the cordon around the participants, organizers, and financiers of the riots that took place (Sunday) in Brasilia, and prompted President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva to carry out a "deep reorganization" of his security in the presidential palace.
The authorities continue to clamp down on the protesters, as a large number of rioters were identified through surveillance cameras, pictures published in newspapers, or selfies they published on social media.
But the authorities' priority is now to punish the networks that worked behind the scenes to fund and organize the insurgency.
The Federal Prosecutor's Office, which defends the interests of the state from the district of Brasilia, requested the freezing of sums of 6.5 million reais (1.2 million euros) to 52 people and seven companies all accused of financing the transport of hooligans in 100 buses from across the country on Saturday night.
Brazilian media reported that a large number of the alleged financiers are linked to the commercial agricultural sector, which is a source of support for Bolsonaro.
The national heritage was severely damaged, offices looted and works of art destroyed.
In both houses of parliament alone, the value of these damages is estimated at more than one million euros, according to preliminary estimates announced by the government.
The Brazilian Institute of Historical and Artistic Heritage presented the first damage assessment report (Thursday), which included among the damage a urine-soaked carpet and another by Brazilian artist Roberto Burley Marx.
Last Tuesday, Supreme Court Judge Alexandre de Moraes ordered the arrest of Fabio Augusto, chief of the military police in Brasília, and Anderson Torres, former justice minister of the far-right leader and security minister in the capital at the time of the riots.
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