A new player in the arena.. Will the "Wagner" mercenaries turn the war equation in favor of Moscow?

Moscow/London

- The role of the Russian Wagner Group in the war in Ukraine has come to light again, in light of its prominent participation in the fierce battles that permeated the process of controlling the strategic city of Solidar.

Russian and even Western media described the capture of Solidar as "salt on Ukraine's wounds" and an opportunity for Russian forces to advance towards Bakhmut and get closer to Kramatorsk and Slaviansk.

However, the media focus and observers' readings of the developments of the battles in Ukraine, this time, were focused in particular on the emergence of Wagner, as a basic combat unit in the battles in Ukraine, alongside the regular forces and military units from Donetsk and Luhansk.

The Syrian "test" phase

Military affairs expert Victor Litovkin describes the Wagner Group's participation in the war in Syria (where it had a different name in the Russian military operation there) as a "test phase" from the Ministry of Defense, which the group passed successfully, qualifying it to become a spearhead for the Russian forces in the war in Ukraine, as he put it.

Litovkin expected, in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, that Wagner would lead the field scene in the subsequent battles, due to its high-level professionalism and discipline, which would enable it to take on more precise and complex combat missions.

Control of Solidar, according to him, gives the Russian army a wider room for maneuver in the battle of Bakhmut, and increases the ability of the Russian forces to engage in confrontations to drain and exhaust the Ukrainian forces, which could be a new round to test Wagner's performance.

Litovkin proceeds from the fact that if control of Bakhmut is tightened, the Ukrainian leadership will then be forced to call more reserve forces to this axis, which is a confrontation entitlement that requires fighting of a special kind that Wagner is now qualified to do, according to his opinion.

In turn, military expert Sergey Prostakov says that the talk about the growing role of Wagner is related to the nature of the special training it underwent, which includes dealing with different methods of fighting foreign "mercenaries", who have special combat experience, which they received during their service in different "hot" areas around the world. .

On the other hand, he denies what US State Department spokesman Ned Price said that Wagner will become an alternative to the Russian forces in Ukraine, and that the focus on them reflects two undeclared desperation and resentment within the ranks of the army.

A British military expert acknowledged the progress made by Wagner in the battle in Ukraine, but saw it as a tactical and temporary progress (Reuters)

In this context, he explains, "Wagner's successful tactics in the conflict in Ukraine prompted the United States to finally be convinced that the group has become a threat to it."

On the verge of a war of attrition

Prostakov adds that Wagner is a professional tactical combat unit, but it is not dedicated to carrying out large-scale military operations independently, as is the case in the Russian operation in Ukraine, and on this basis, its role will in any case be local, and through careful and integrated coordination with the Russian army, adding The armed conflict in the coming months will depend not so much on weather conditions, but on the ability of the warring parties to deplete their reserves and resources.

Limited effectiveness

For his part, Shashank Joshi, editor of military affairs in the British magazine "The Economist", believes that Russia's decision to resort to Wagner's mercenaries "shows the weakness that afflicted the Russian army, as almost all of the capabilities of the Russian army were relied upon, and there are many wounded and dead." And fatigue after the war approached its second year.

The British military expert confirmed - in his interview with Al-Jazeera Net - that Russia decided to add the Wagner Group to a number of mercenaries already present in Ukraine, "because the Wagner Group are the most effective, and indeed they have made some progress on the battlefield, and they have great military capabilities, and the ability to fight battles until at night, which was not possible for the Russian army."

Despite the progress achieved by Wagner, Shashank believes that it is "tactical and temporary progress, and it cannot last for a long time, nor are they decisive victories that make Russia able to resolve the battle."

On the other hand, the same spokesman underestimated the ability of the tanks that Britain and Poland plan to deliver to the Ukrainian army to overturn the balance of power. It remains important in the front lines of the battle, due to its great offensive capabilities."

And the military affairs editor at The Economist revealed that he spoke with generals in the Ukrainian army, "and all of them confirmed that a major operation is being prepared by the spring, but it is not known yet its location or the fronts that will target it, because this is related to the course of the current battles."

weakness indicator

Pascal Boniface, founder and director of the Institute for International Relations and Strategy (IRIS), described calling the Wagner Group "evidence of the weakness of the Russian forces, and an indication that Putin is convinced that he needs more forces, after the army's inability to achieve any real victory." Pointing out at the same time that the call-up of mercenaries or "private armies is not new, as the United States has previously used mercenaries in Iraq and Afghanistan."

The strategic expert confirmed - in his interview with Al-Jazeera Net - that "the Wagner Group will not achieve any decisive victory in the battle, but it will achieve some local and geographically limited victories, because the method of fighting this group enables it to carry out special operations in a short time, but it is not ready to fight." Great battles for a long time.

The director of the "Iris" Institute explained that the Russian president resorted to Wagner's forces by saying that "Putin searched for announcing any victory and preserving the lands that were previously controlled, but it is impossible for Russia to control more lands, and this is what puts the Russian president in an embarrassing situation, because he needs To a victory that he presents to public opinion, especially in view of the losses incurred by the Russian army.

In a pessimistic language, Boniface ruled out any imminent end to the war in Ukraine, pointing out that "this matter is impossible, unless the regime is changed in Russia, and this is unlikely, and therefore Russia will not achieve any victory in this war, just as Ukraine will not be able to restore All lands despite Western support, because the number of Ukrainian soldiers remains less than the Russian army, even if its forces are exhausted and have suffered heavy losses.