Statements after hints.. Is Turkey heading for early elections?

Istanbul -

The desire of the ruling Justice and Development Party in Turkey to advance the date of the elections has moved from the hints that were issued by its officials and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last December to statements, and the option of early elections has become more likely in Turkey.

The presidential and parliamentary general elections were scheduled to be held on June 18, but AKP officials recently expressed fears of a low turnout at the planned date as a result of its coinciding with various occasions.

Last Monday, Turkish Vice President Erkan Candemir in the Justice and Development Party announced the government's intention to advance the date of the general elections, to be after Eid al-Fitr and before the supposed date of next June.

However, he confirmed that no decision had been taken on the date yet, explaining that "the dates are discussed within the Justice Party and within the ruling Republican Alliance, through the evaluation of party delegations, after which the results will be presented to the leaders of the ruling coalition."

A spokesman for the Justice and Development Party, Omer Celik, confirmed that they are considering bringing forward the election date, but he played down the importance of that, saying that "changing the date will not amount to early elections."

While he pointed out that his party is looking to advance the date "a little", he indicated that the party's Supreme Council "has not taken a final decision yet."

Analysts see the trend to early presidential elections as pressure on the Turkish opposition, especially the six-party (French) table

Logistical and political reasons

Party officials talked about the reasons for thinking about advancing the date of the elections, stressing that it is due to the desire to provide an opportunity for broader popular participation, given that the scheduled date of June 18 coincides with the summer holidays, holidays and university exams.

The leader of the party, Erkan Kandemir, said, "Citizens leave for their towns and villages after closing schools, in addition to the summer vacation, and" that is why we hope that the electoral period will end before June.

Political analyst and researcher Saeed Al-Hajj considered that the reasons for bringing the elections closer, which are being talked about among the ruling party, are related to "pure logistical reasons, which they call seasonal reasons."

Al-Hajj confirmed to Al-Jazeera Net that the Justice and Development Party believes that the aforementioned reasons may affect the participation rate, given that a large proportion of Turkish citizens return to their original villages during this period.

However, the researcher on Turkish affairs expressed his belief that there are other "important political reasons" behind the study of advancing the date of the elections, which include some gains and benefits for the Justice and Development Party.

He explained that the first of them is narrowing the time space for the Turkish opposition, especially the six-party table, which until this moment has not agreed on a unified candidate for it to compete with Erdogan. The chances of Erdogan and his party, according to Al-Hajj.

Al-Hajj added that the second reason is that the Justice and Development Party wants to hold the elections in the best economic conditions to ensure the best repercussions on the citizens, as bringing the date closer brings the citizen closer to the financial government support provided, such as raising the minimum wage and raising the salaries of employees, which will start at the end of this month. And the later the election date, the less beneficial and impactful these decisions will be.

The Justice and Development Party wants to hold the elections in the best economic situation to ensure greater support (Al-Jazeera)

Avoid discussions of the "third term"

For her part, journalist Dilara Arslan, director of the Ankara office in the Daily Sabah newspaper, which is close to the government, told Al Jazeera Net about additional reasons behind the ruling party's efforts to advance the election date and related to the ongoing discussions between the government and the opposition regarding President Erdogan's eligibility to run for a third presidential term.

The Turkish opposition has recently - without taking a decisive stand - raised doubts about the constitutionality of Erdogan's candidacy for elections for a third presidential term, while government departments confirm that the amendment of the constitution that was held in the referendum and entered into force in 2017 and the transfer of the country to the presidential system created a new reality and became Erdogan after the return His election in 2018 is governed by the new amendment for a first term, not a second.

Despite the Justice and Development Party’s adherence to this legal position, according to Arslan, Article 101 of the Turkish constitution stipulates that “the term of the president’s term is 5 years, and any person can be elected president for a maximum of two times” that may make Erdogan’s presidency in elections he wins “without holding early elections.” The subject of greater controversy and criticism by the opposition, that is, going to early elections before the completion of 10 years, which is the duration of the two presidential terms, would reduce the importance of this debate.

Arslan believes that another advantage of the early elections is the elimination of instability and uncertainty in this period of economic difficulties that Turkey is going through.

The decision to advance the election date must either be approved by the Turkish Parliament by a majority of 360 deputies, or through the President of the Republic (Anatolia)

How will the decision to early elections be taken?

And about the chances of going to early elections in the event that the Justice and Development Party and its partner in the People's Alliance are decided;

The National Movement Party, their decision in this regard, Arslan explained that there are two ways to go to early elections, one of which is that it be taken by parliament, with a majority of at least 360 deputies, but the number of seats in the People’s Alliance will not be sufficient and support for the opposition is required, which opens the door before the second option.

The second option is for the president to make the decision based on his powers.

But the first option, according to the Turkish journalist, will be more strategic for the Justice and Development Party.

In this regard, she pointed out that, according to Article 116 of the Turkish constitution, if the parliament decides by a majority of 3-fifths to call for early elections, this means that the current term of the president is not counted, and he can run for another term if his term is the second.

Observers suggested that the ruling coalition would be able to pass the decision to advance the date of the elections without hindrance.

"The option of early elections is a strong possibility," said Ahmed Uysal, head of the "Orsam" Center for Studies in Ankara.

However, Uysal said, speaking to Al-Jazeera Net, that the decision to early elections will not witness "a major change, as it is most likely related to advancing the date by a month or two only, to avoid conflicts with the scheduled date in mid-June with the activities of the education and tourism sectors."