5 basic questions about the development of the war in Ukraine in 2023

In his New Year's wishes, the Ukrainian president promised his people victory in 2023, while the Kremlin is talking about "war" instead of "special military operation" in Ukraine.

As this conflict approaches its second year, what are its main bets?

This is what the French newspaper "Le Figaro" tried to clarify by answering 5 questions, which included military objectives, negotiations, and even the extent to which Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are likely to stay.

First: What is the expected balance of power during this year?

General Michel Yakovlev, a former senior NATO official, expects Ukraine's 700,000-strong army to maintain its numerical advantage this year.

According to the Director of the General Staff of the European Union, Admiral Hervé Bligan, the Ukrainians are preparing, in order to maintain their numerical superiority, to "create 3 new military corps by March 2023, with an estimated size of 75,000 men."

As for the Russian army, this year will witness an extensive deployment of 300,000 soldiers who were mobilized last September, and Peligan expects that they will be used to double the lines of defense in the territories occupied by Russia, and Ukrainian intelligence has expressed concern about a new Russian mobilization that may reach 500,000 additional soldiers. .

The Russians have problems with ammunition.

For example, they should limit the shooting in Bakhmut, as General Yakovlev asserts.

"The Russian army is extracting old equipment from its stocks and trying to produce more quickly," added the geopolitical consultant, expert in communication and information sciences, General Francois Chovanci.

Second: Will the West continue to provide weapons to Kiev?

According to an estimate by Admiral Bligan, the Russian forces suffered heavy material losses amounting to 70% of their stock of missiles suitable for land targets, 60% of their combat tanks, and 20% of their artillery, while Ukraine lost more than 400 tanks and more than 1,500 combat vehicles, according to the website. Oryx specializes in defense affairs.

But the reconfiguration of Russian equipment, despite the depth of Soviet stocks, faces Western bans on some technologies, forcing "the Russian army to extract old equipment from its stocks and try to produce more quickly," according to some sources.

Kyiv relies heavily on Western deliveries to maintain its technological edge.

The West has not shown - so far - any slackness in this direction, but has begun to send offensive weapons.

While the West is concerned about its stockpiles of weapons, experts expect that Russian stocks will run out before the West.

Third: What are the military objectives after the great fall maneuvers?

The year 2022 ended with the status quo between the two warring parties.

After the great fallout maneuvers on the Ukrainian side and the desire to soften the blow on the Russian side, the two sides will certainly race to strike each other as early as possible in 2023, perhaps at the end of winter.

And General Yakovlev believes: "Russia is forced to strive to achieve a very symbolic goal," adding that if it were Putin, he would use the most important remaining card he had, which is the siege of Kyiv, thus bringing back memories of the siege of Sarajevo.

As for the Ukrainians, Yakovlev believes that it is best for them to “wait for the Russians to come out of the woods” to defeat them, but if the Russian forces do not take any action, then Kyiv may want to target the Sea of ​​Azov first and perhaps even Mariupol, and if that scenario materializes, it will be tantamount to “ Hell for the Russians," according to his description.

Fourth: Are negotiations possible?

At the end of the fall, after several months of Ukrainian counterattacks, there was suddenly talk of possible negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow, but that has not yet borne fruit.

Will 2023 be the end of the war?

Nothing is less certain than that, according to the writer, as both sides are intransigent in his demands: the Russians want Ukraine to recognize what they consider their new borders, and Ukraine requires the return of all its occupied territories and the return of the Russians to the pre-war borders.

"These are two irreconcilable positions," asserts French general and geopolitical expert François Chovanci, noting that "negotiations will not be possible unless one of the belligerents collapses or both accept that there is no way for either of them to win in this war."

Fifth: Will Putin and Zelensky survive the repercussions of the war in 2023?

Opinion polls indicate that 97% of Ukrainians support the war, which means that Zelensky will continue to enjoy popular support during the current year, especially since Ukrainians see Russia as an existential threat, so they either resist it or disappear from existence.

As for Russia, the situation of the regime appears to be more sensitive, and yet observers see that the strongest criticism comes from those who do not see aggression against Ukraine as a problem, but rather feel that the Kremlin does not go far enough.” The problem - according to some observers - is that even If Putin's current regime collapses within this year, there is no guarantee that his successor will change his policy on the Ukraine war.