The American "Stratfor" website said that the political environment in Brazil has become more polarized and conservative in the last 12 years, which followed the years of the rule of the re-elected president this week, Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva, who had ruled Brazil for two terms between 2003 and 2010.
The site expected that this polarization would restrict da Silva's ability to enact major political changes this time, especially if current President Jair Bolsonaro encouraged his right-wing supporters to put obstacles in Da Silva's face, especially since his victory was by a narrow margin.
The site indicated that Bolsonaro has been challenging the integrity of the elections, and may still be challenging them, which may result in disturbing right-wing demonstrations carried out by his supporters.
However, Stratfor, which is also an intelligence site, stressed that without the support of Brazil's prominent military and political leaders for Bolsonaro, it is unlikely that he will remain in power after da Silva's inauguration on January 1, 2023.
Stratfor believes that opposition from the center and far-right lawmakers in Congress will limit da Silva's ability to implement his political agenda once he takes office next year.
But while this will mitigate the risks of unsustainable increases in welfare spending, da Silva will still be able to unilaterally impose some environmental protections and sector-specific economic regulations, which could negatively affect the business environment in Brazil, according to him. for stratfor.
The site suggested that such a scenario would prompt da Silva to work to mobilize support from his political opponents for some of his political priorities, such as increasing spending on social welfare.
He concluded with da Silva's announcement on October 31 that he would send a delegation to the next United Nations climate summit this November in Egypt, although he would not have officially assumed power yet.
The site expected that the president-elect would try during the aforementioned conference to secure funding from other countries for his administration's next efforts to preserve the rainforest, indicating that he might also pledge to make Brazil's efforts to remove carbon more stringent.
Da Silva, the left-wing candidate and former president, won the presidential run-off on October 30 with 50.9% of the vote, narrowly defeating the incumbent right-wing candidate, Bolsonaro.