- Don't drink too much, don't take drugs, don't rape girls.

That was the call when the Russian mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin thanked the first group of prisoners pardoned for their war in Ukraine.

After long denying any connection to the "Wagner group", last year Prigozhin stepped forward and admitted that he was in fact behind the mercenaries that in recent years have been increasingly visible around the world.

In Syria, African countries – and of course Ukraine in particular.

And who recruited all sorts of criminals from Russian prisons to fill the thinned ranks of Russia's offensive war.

Businessman with catering empire

Through political contacts, the 61-year-old has transformed himself from a common criminal behind bars, to a businessman with a catering empire with lucrative public contracts as a source of income.

More recently also to political player and warlord - partly in the field abroad but also in the corridors of the Kremlin.

People often talk about the struggle between the "Kremlin towers", i.e. different interest groups.

For example, the military around Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, more economically liberal technocrats and hardline war-mongering nationalists like Prigozhin.

Channel with connection to Prigozhin

The battle for President Putin's favor is fought both behind the scenes and in public.

With his crudely crude actions, Prigozhin has proven to be a shrewd PR actor for his own cause.

Perhaps he is Russia's main self-promoter today, and more than a spoonful of salt should be kept close at hand if one is to take note of his claims.

There are also more indirect methods.

So-called "military bloggers" who write about the war online, not infrequently criticizing the military and the Ministry of Defense, have become important channels of information both for a Russian audience and for international observers.

The bottom line is that even the blogs are tied to the interests of various Russian actors and are far less free than many Western observers seem to think.

In fact, they are most similar to influencers who write themselves, many of whom are happy to include "sponsored collaborations" with the rich and powerful, which affects their reporting.

The channel "Rybar" is one of the most famous, but according to media reports, has connections to Prigozhin in particular.

Capitalized on the war

Prigozhin has capitalized on the war against Ukraine and his rising star is said to worry parts of the elite.

In their eyes, Prigozhin is a boisterous gangster who has made his way into the fine rooms.

Along with Prigozhin's increasing visibility, there is speculation that he is aiming for high political office for himself, perhaps by starting a party or perhaps even as a possible successor to Putin.

But media visibility is not the same as real power.

Putin's loyal vassal

Of course, unexpected things can happen in times of war and crisis.

But Prigozhin's role today is not as Putin's equal but as a useful henchman.

He is rich and influential with a valuable commodity to sell: soldiers for Russia's war.

But he is not part of the inner circle around Putin.

His background as a prison customer rhymes badly with "statesmanlike image".

He has not challenged Putin but rather has been helpful in directing criticism about the failures of the Ukraine war towards the military and away from Putin.

Prigozhin is – at least at the moment – ​​by all accounts not Putin's crown prince but his loyal vassal.

A problem solver who is not afraid to get his hands dirty.

What despot wouldn't want one?