Putin's "Christmas ceasefire" was rejected by Ukraine, and Russia warned that the "New Year gift" was approaching NATO
[Global Times special correspondent Sui Xin Feng Yaren Global Times reporter Ding Yazhi Liu Zhi in Russia and the United States] Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed the Russian army to be on the entire contact line in the special military operation zone from 12:00 on January 6 to 24:00 on January 7 On the implementation of a ceasefire, while calling on Ukraine to also implement a ceasefire.
But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky refused and questioned Russia's motives.
Polyansky, Russia's first deputy permanent representative to the United Nations, refuted that the Kyiv regime is willing to sacrifice its own people and country for Western geopolitical games.
At the same time, the United States and the West continued to "fire", announcing that they would provide Ukraine with weapons and equipment such as "Patriot" air defense missile systems and infantry fighting vehicles.
Medvedev, vice chairman of the Russian Federation Security Council, warned on the 5th that the "New Year's gift" with the "Zircon" hypersonic missile will be close to the coast of NATO countries.
The German "Handelsblatt" listed six factors that may affect the direction of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, namely, ammunition supply, the degree of US participation, the severity of the European energy crisis, the morale of the Ukrainian people, Russia's domestic political stability, and whether Ukraine can get enough supplies. tank.
Various parties react to the "ceasefire"
According to the website of the Russian President, Putin instructed Russian Defense Minister Shoigu on the 5th to request the Russian army to implement a ceasefire along the line of contact between the Russian and Ukrainian armies from 12:00 Moscow time on the 6th to 24:00 on the 7th.
Putin said the move was in response to a ceasefire proposal by Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill.
He also called on the Ukrainian side to also implement a ceasefire to give believers the opportunity to carry out religious activities during the Orthodox Christmas period.
January 7th is Orthodox Christmas.
Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill earlier on the 5th called on all parties to the conflict to cease fire during the holiday.
Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on February 24, 2022, in order to allow the evacuation of civilians or other humanitarian considerations, Russia has repeatedly ordered a limited ceasefire in the local area, but the ceasefire order on the 5th is the first time that Putin instructed the army to operate in Ukraine. Ceasefire throughout.
Ukraine did not buy into Putin's appeal.
Zelensky said in a video speech on social media on the 5th that he does not think it is necessary to cease fire during the traditional holiday, and that Russia "want to use Christmas as a cover" to prevent the Ukrainian army from launching a counterattack and take the opportunity to deliver equipment and ammunition.
Podolyak, an adviser to the Ukrainian president's office, also posted on social media that a "temporary truce" is only possible if the Russian army leaves Ukrainian territory.
Russia's first deputy permanent representative to the United Nations Polyansky tweeted: "This is another reminder of who we are fighting in Ukraine - brutal nationalist criminals who are willing to sacrifice their country for the geopolitical games of the West and people, they have no respect for sacred things."
The United Nations welcomed Russia's decision to cease fire.
The spokesman for the United Nations Secretary-General, Dugarik, said at a press conference on the 5th: "Christmas is a sacred time for both Russians and Ukrainians. At this moment, the Secretary-General of the United Nations has always been concerned about the possibility of seeing the war stop Welcome."
When asked about Putin's announcement of a ceasefire on the 5th, U.S. President Biden said that he believed Putin's decision was to "give yourself some air and take it easy."
U.S. State Department spokesman Price said the Russian ceasefire order appeared to be a tactic aimed at "resting, refitting, reorganizing, and eventually attacking again."
European Council President Michel accused Putin's ceasefire order on Twitter on the 5th as "ridiculous and hypocritical".
Some analysts believe that the United States questioned Russia's "ceasefire" intention, but it does not want the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to end.
The US "Foreign Affairs" magazine stated on the 5th that currently only Washington has the ability to push Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table, but it has decided not to do so. "As a result, the war continues and a painful human price has been paid."
Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times reporter on the 6th that the United States does not want Ukraine to "exchange land for peace" and the West does not want to admit defeat on the Ukraine issue, so the United States only makes peace gestures , but in fact has been "passing the knife" to Wu.
From the perspective of the United States, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is a rare opportunity to consume and contain Russia, and an important starting point for integrating and revitalizing NATO and promoting NATO's Asia-Pacificization and globalization.
The United States also hopes to use the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to prevent economic and energy cooperation between Russia and the European Union.
Russia Responds Strongly to Western Military Aid to Ukraine
The German Federal Government issued a statement on the 5th stating that German Chancellor Scholz had a phone call with Biden on the same day, and the two sides reached an agreement during the call that Germany will provide Ukraine with "Weasel" infantry fighting vehicles and a "Patriot" air defense missile system.
The United States will provide Ukraine with Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and, as planned, Patriot air defense missile systems.
Reuters quoted US officials as saying that this round of US military aid includes 50 "Bradley" infantry fighting vehicles.
The U.S. Department of Defense has not yet confirmed where the "Patriot" system that is going to aid Ukraine will come from.
The U.S. Congressional Research Service stated in a report on the 2nd that the U.S.-aided Ukrainian air defense system and related interceptors "are likely to be transferred from the Army and inventory."
According to the report, it is widely speculated that the "Patriot" system will be delivered in the first half of 2023, but it will take about 53 weeks to train local maintenance personnel. "Ukraine will not be able to use the 'Patriot' until 2024 at the earliest."
The British "Financial Times" stated that the provision of infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine marked a huge shift in Scholz's policy towards Ukraine. Before that, he had been very reluctant to provide heavy weapons to Ukraine, fearing that it might drag NATO into the war.
"Voice of America" quoted American military expert Bowman as saying that the "Bradley" combat vehicle is "a major upgrade of the US military aid to Ukraine."
The Russian "Newspaper" stated that the use of American infantry fighting vehicles will enhance the maneuverability of the Ukrainian army when carrying out operations such as troop transfers, raids, and interspersed encirclements. The terrain in southern Ukraine is very conducive to related operations.
But the problem is that the "Bradley" combat vehicle may not appear in Ukraine until April or May this year at the earliest.
On the other hand, these aids from Western countries still fall short of Uzbekistan's requirements.
On the 4th, Zelensky once again called on Western countries to provide heavier weapons.
U.S. media reported that Ukraine hopes that the United States and its allies will provide "Abrams" tanks and German "Leopard" tanks.
At the same time, Russia has also stepped up the deployment of strategic weapons.
Putin announced on the 4th that the Russian Navy's "Admiral Gorshkov" frigate equipped with "Zircon" hypersonic missiles began a long voyage.
Medvedev, vice chairman of the Russian Federation Security Council, warned the United States on the 5th that the "New Year's Gift" with the "Zircon" missile will soon approach the coasts of NATO countries. Everyone is enlightened."
"When the mud freezes, you will know the answer"
In 2023, will the conflict between Russia and Ukraine come to an end or further escalate?
Clark, deputy director of the Exeter Institute for Strategic Studies in the United Kingdom, believes that the decisive factor for the conflict in 2023 depends on Russia's spring offensive.
The Russian side has announced that about 50,000 newly mobilized troops have arrived at the front; 250,000 people who have just been mobilized are also being trained for this year's offensive.
Former NATO general Domreze said that the most likely time for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is from February to May this year. By then, both sides will realize that continuing combat operations will be futile.
Ratz, an expert on Russia at the German Council on Foreign Relations, predicts that negotiations between Ukraine and Russia may take place this summer.
He believes that Russia will hold a presidential election in 2024, so the intensity of fighting will be reduced within this year.
In addition, the supply problem of the Russian army is likely to intensify in the summer.
Suslov, deputy director of the European and International Studies Center of the Russian Higher School of Economics, said that the United States may provide Ukraine with long-range missiles, drones and other weapons capable of attacking Russian territory in 2023, which will lead to further escalation of confrontation.
Israeli military expert Gendelman believes that the goal that Russia and Ukraine want to achieve in the next stage is not how the conflict will end, but to maintain the status quo.
Russia is likely to continue its current tactics of slowly suppressing Ukrainian forces in a narrow direction and continuing to attack Ukrainian energy infrastructure in a slow advance.
For the Ukrainian army, the most strategically valuable direction is to go south, reaching Mariupol and Berdyansk, with the purpose of cutting off the passage from the Russian mainland to Crimea.
"When the mud freezes, we'll know the answer to the question of how the conflict will end."
Zhu Feng, dean of the School of International Relations at Nanjing University, told the Global Times reporter on the 6th that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in 2023 will focus on three aspects: "war", "talk" and "pressure".
Now the international community generally believes that the political negotiations between Russia and Ukraine should be restarted, but the premise is to what extent the current positions of all parties have changed.
On the one hand, if the United States wants to negotiate, it must reduce its military aid to Ukraine on a large scale, and it cannot continue to treat the conflict between Russia and Ukraine as a proxy war of major powers.
On the other hand, Ukraine also needs to face reality—the longer the war lasts, the heavier the humanitarian crisis Ukraine will encounter. Therefore, the Zelensky government needs to make a very clear political decision.
In addition, in terms of "pressure", the EU should further clarify its attitude, so that the United States can reduce its military support to Ukraine. At the same time, the international community should also put pressure on Russia and Ukraine to reduce air strikes on the other side's infrastructure.
(Source: Global Times Author: Sui Xin, Feng Yaren, Ding Yazhi, Liu Zhi)