The overwhelmingly good mood on the German stock market has evaporated somewhat.

On Thursday, the Dax opened lower for the first time this year compared to the previous day's closing price.

The drop of 0.3 percent to 14,443 points was by no means dramatic.

Hanno Mussler

Editor in Business.

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There were at least two pieces of news that weighed on the German stock market: German exports fell in November and interest rates in America will continue to rise, albeit probably not at the rapid pace of 2022.

On Wednesday, the Dax had increased for the third trading day in a row, with growth of 2.2 percent it was even the best day so far in the still young year 2023. After ending the old year below 14,000 points, the Dax closed on Wednesday at 14,490 points, the highest level since mid-December.

One driver of the small New Year's rally has so far been export-strong chemical stocks such as BASF, Brenntag and Covestro.

The news that German exports, according to data from the Federal Statistical Office on Thursday, contrary to expectations, fell by 0.3 percent in November compared to October.

The chief economist at ING-Bank, Carsten Brzeski, commented on the export figures as follows: “Trade is no longer an engine of growth, but has become a stumbling block for German economic growth.

Export orders have continued to weaken significantly in recent months, as the global economic slowdown, high inflation and great uncertainty have left their mark.”

The short-term prospects are anything but rosy.

"It could take at least until next spring before the global supply chains and a recovering global economy start reviving German exports," said Brzeski.

In the USA, the mood on the American stock markets had already shifted during the course of the day on Tuesday.

The triggers were obviously the minutes of the most recent central bank meeting of the American central bank.

After being released, stock indices gave back much of their day's gains.

The Dow Jones index of standard values ​​closed 0.4 percent higher at 33,269 points.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq advanced 0.7 percent to 10,458 points.

The broad S&P 500 gained 0.8 percent to 3852 points.

Minutes from December's Fed meeting show that US central bankers are leaning toward a slower pace of monetary tightening in 2023 after a series of aggressive rate hikes to fight inflation.

Because the central bankers see "considerable progress" in curbing the rise in prices as a reaction to their tight interest rate policy last year.

However, the task now is to balance the fight against high inflation and the risk of an excessive economic slowdown.

According to most currency watchdogs, “flexibility and optionality” are required on the way to a course that will dampen the economy even more.

This choice of words suggests that the pace of rate hikes at the Fed meeting in early February could be curbed – to a quarter of a percentage point after the last 0.5 percent and before XXL steps of 0.75 percentage points.

In a market commentary on Wednesday morning, Deutsche Bank pointed out that the minutes also show that the American labor market remains “incredibly tight”.

The number of vacancies is huge, applicants have a wide choice and can demand high wages.

This, in turn, will lead to further inflationary pressures and provide plenty of ammunition for those central bankers who are demanding further interest rate hikes, warned Deutsche Bank.

The US Federal Reserve has increased its key interest rate in 2022 by a total of 4 percentage points to now 4.25 to 4.5 as a target range for overnight funds.

So far, the market has “priced in” around 5 percent as the highest key interest rate for this year.

Hopes for the end of the Fed's XXL interest rate hikes spurred on US government bonds on Tuesday.

The yield on the 10-year bond fell to 3.6865 percent from 3.792 percent on Tuesday.