KHARTOUM -

During the year 2022, Sudan witnessed many events, most notably the occurrence of violence in some states, and a political division between the military component and the civilian component on the one hand, and within the civil forces on the other hand, before the year ended with the signing of the framework agreement.

There have been bloody acts of violence due to the conflict over resources and land, the weakness of the state, the fragility of the security situation, and the political vacuum, as the killing spread in several states, and thousands lost their homes and became displaced in their homeland.

According to United Nations estimates, tribal confrontations in the Darfur region have killed 1,091 people since the beginning of the year, and 410 people have been killed in the Blue Nile region and more than 160 people have been killed in the state of West Kordofan. These confrontations have caused the displacement of more than 220,000 people, bringing the number of displaced people to an increase. In the country to 3.7 million people.


Non-stop demonstrations

Last October, a year passed since the decision of the army commander, Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, to dissolve the Sovereignty Council and the Council of Ministers, dismiss the governors of the states, and impose a state of emergency, which are the measures that plunged the country into a political crisis, as the Alliance of the Forces of Freedom and Change - which was removed from power at the time - was considered - What happened as a "coup", and Sudan's membership in the African Union was suspended, and much international support for it stopped.

The demonstrations by the resistance committees continued throughout the year and are still continuing, and the authorities’ confrontation of the movement led to the killing of 121 demonstrators and the injury of more than 7 thousand others, some of whom had amputated limbs and lost their eyes, according to the Central Committee of Doctors.


external pressure agreement

After months of blockage of the political horizon and the inability of the political forces to find a settlement to the crisis in the country, the international Quartet - which includes the United States, Britain, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates - intervened, and behind it the tripartite mechanism - which consists of the United Nations, the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) - and put pressure on the parties. The conflict, which resulted in the framework agreement to return the country to the democratic path, the formation of a full civil authority that would lead Sudan to elections after two years, and the exit of the military from the political scene by returning to their barracks.

The signing of the agreement between the military component and some civilian forces did not open a door of hope with which the Sudanese could welcome the new year, but rather poured fuel on the fire and faced opposition from influential political alliances and forces such as the Forces for Freedom and Change - the Democratic Bloc that includes the Democratic Unionist Party led by Muhammad Osman al-Mirghani, and 6 Armed groups, most notably the Sudan Liberation Movement headed by Minni Arko Minawi, the Justice and Equality Movement headed by Jibril Ibrahim, tribal groups led by the head of the Beja Tribes Council, and the independent columns in eastern Sudan headed by Muhammad al-Amin Turk.

The agreement also opposes the "resistance committees" that have been leading a movement in the street for more than a year, the "Sudan Call" group, which includes many sects, most of which belong to the Islamic movement, and the coalition of "radical change" forces led by the Communist Party.


the future of the political process

The international Quartet and the tripartite mechanism are pushing towards the second phase of the political process, transforming the initial agreement into a comprehensive agreement, by addressing 5 issues, including:

  • Transitional Justice.

  • Evaluation of the peace agreement signed in Juba for the issues of Darfur and the regions of South Kordofan and Blue Nile.

  • Repair of military equipment.

  • Dismantling the regime of isolated President Omar al-Bashir.

  • Addressing the issue of eastern Sudan.

Observers believe that reaching consensus on these issues leads to a final agreement and the formation of a new transitional government.

However, informed political sources told Al-Jazeera Net that the expansion of the circle of opposition to the framework agreement prompted some of its parties to think about not rushing towards the final agreement, and seeking to attract opposition forces so that an isolated agreement would not be born that does not lead to stability, but rather to a new phase of the conflict, especially since the Alliance of Freedom Forces And the change - which is supported by international and regional powers - cracked due to the agreement with the exit of the Arab Socialist Baath Party, the largest active political faction in the coalition.

Uncertainty prevails in the future of Sudan due to several factors, most notably:

  • The growing opposition to the framework agreement.

  • The coalition of the forces of freedom and change split.

  • The military component signed the agreement under regional and international pressure, said Muhammad Hamdan Hamidti, deputy head of the Sovereignty Council and commander of the Rapid Support Forces.

  • The divergence of the positions of the international Quartet countries.

  • The split of the tripartite mechanism between the United Nations Transition Support Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS) on the one hand and the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) on the other.

The available data indicates that Sudan welcomes the year 2023 with 3 scenarios:

  • The first: the success of forming a transitional civilian government that will fill the political vacuum that has been going on for more than a year, but it will face broad and fierce opposition, which threatens its continuation.

  • Second: The framework agreement's partners retreated by making concessions to the opposition, which would allow a national consensus that would lead the country for two stable years until elections are held.

  • The third: the failure of the framework agreement, the continuation of military control, the formation of a caretaker government, and the holding of early elections.