Damascus -

The devastating economic crisis left by the bloody war in Syria since 2012 continues, exacerbating the humanitarian, living and service suffering of Syrians.

In addition to the direct effects of the war on the Syrian economy in the past years, the disruption of the path of the political solution, the rampant mismanagement and corruption, and the military escalation in some areas contribute to depleting the remaining material capabilities and exacerbating the service and living crises throughout Syria.

The year 2022 is considered the harshest year for Syrians in regime-controlled areas, where a number of crises erupted, the latest of which was fuel scarcity, which led to almost complete paralysis of transportation, freezing most businesses and disrupting the public and private sectors.

In the past year, regime areas witnessed the implementation of unprecedented government policies that exacerbated crises and the suffering of the poorest segments.

A Syrian mother lights a fireplace made of tree branches in her house in Damascus, amid a harsh winter coinciding with a fuel and electricity crisis (Reuters)

Support policy

Since the beginning of last year, specifically last February, the Syrian government began implementing a policy of lifting subsidies on all basic food and consumer items, including bread, fuel and domestic gas.

In its first phase, this policy included about 600,000 families with the aim of transferring them to "the most fragile and vulnerable groups," according to the Syrian government's deputy minister of communications.

While the second phase of lifting subsidies, last June, targeted engineers, lawyers, pharmacists, and doctors who have practiced the profession for more than 10 years, along with first- and second-class merchants, large shareholders, and managers of private banks.

Subsequently, the government in Damascus continued its policy of lifting subsidies on basic materials in indirect ways, such as raising the subsidized price for these materials periodically, and privatizing some service sectors due to their inability to provide services at subsidized prices.

This policy is expected to continue in 2023 with the continued worsening of the economic crisis, the collapse of the lira’s exchange rate against foreign currencies, and the inability of the regime’s government to ensure stable supplies of oil derivatives.

Expensive waves and meager salaries

The Syrian markets in the areas of the regime witnessed successive waves of high prices at an accelerated pace, which doubled the prices of basic commodities in 2022, and made it even more difficult for the Syrians, who are mainly suffering from the collapse of the purchasing power of their salaries.

The average salary of employees in the public and private sectors in regime-controlled areas is about 150,000 pounds ($23), while the minimum wage is 92,000 ($15).

These salaries are not at all commensurate with the prices of most essential commodities in the markets.

It is estimated that a Syrian family of 5 needs a minimum of 1.8 million Syrian pounds ($280) to meet their monthly needs.

While the Syrian pound continues to collapse against foreign currencies, the exchange rate of one dollar recorded 6,400 pounds in trading on Tuesday, December 20.

All indications are that prices will continue to rise during 2023, affected by internal and external factors, especially the Western sanctions imposed on the Syrian regime, to which the American "Captagon" law was added, which is expected to enter into force in the first months of 2023.


The misery of reality in a harsh winter

In addition to the rampant high cost, service crises have sharply exacerbated in regime-controlled areas during the current year, and the hours of power outages in most Syrian cities - except for some Damascus neighborhoods - have increased from 18 to 22 and 23 hours, which has paralyzed various aspects of life.

This increase in the hours of power cuts coincides with a significant delay in the families’ delivery of their allotments of domestic gas and diesel (distributed via an electronic card), so the family now receives a gas cylinder (8 kilograms) only every 95 days, while diesel (50 liters per family) is distributed ) once or twice a year.

These crises exacerbated the suffering of the broader segment in obtaining the necessary heating means for the winter of 2022, which the United Nations described in a report as "the harshest winter for Syrians."

A queue of cars waiting to get fuel amid an acute crisis due to the scarcity of fuel in Damascus (Reuters)

new waves of migration

The misery of the living and service situation in the areas controlled by the regime has prompted many Syrians to knock on the doors of immigration again, whether through regular or irregular routes.

The wave of irregular migration reached its peak last September, before gradually declining after the catastrophic sinking of a refugee boat near the Syrian shores in the same month, which claimed the lives of 97 of its passengers.

Many Syrians are still looking for ways to migrate irregularly with the exacerbation of daily suffering, announcing their willingness to risk their lives in order to obtain an opportunity to live a decent life.

government deficit

Since the beginning of this December, the crisis of scarcity of fuel and oil derivatives has intensified, and its repercussions have reached an unprecedented level.

The government of the regime was forced to take emergency measures, which consisted of shutting down all official agencies and institutions - except for the health sector - on the 11th and 18th of December, and from the 25th of this month until the end of last year.

In addition to raising the prices of subsidized gasoline and diesel fuel by 25%, despite their scarcity at government-approved fuel stations, the prices of the two materials on the black market nearly doubled in less than 15 days.

Commenting on the repercussions of the crisis, Minister of Oil and Mineral Resources Bassam Tohme said, in a statement to state media, that "the variables that control oil supplies are beyond our control."

The crisis caused a paralysis of transportation, and half of the bakeries in the capital and its countryside stopped working due to a lack of fuel, and “electrical rationing” was imposed on the major industrial cities in Damascus, Aleppo and other governorates, extending to 72 hours a week.

Seasonal free meals distributed by civil associations at the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus (communication sites)

Will Syrians starve in 2023?

Despite the conclusion of the Prime Minister in the government of the regime, Hussein Arnous, his press conference, on Wednesday, December 14, with assurances of an imminent breakthrough regarding the availability of oil derivatives at the beginning of 2023. Observers of the Syrian affairs and experts unanimously agreed on the absence of the possibility of stabilizing oil supplies in light of the tightened Western sanctions. The decrease in the support of the regime’s allies, the continuous collapse of the Syrian pound against foreign currencies, and the significant decline in the actual value of the state’s general budget for the year 2023, which indicates a decrease in foreign currency reserves in the Central Bank of Syria, and a decrease in the national product.

90% of Syrians live below the poverty line, while 80% of them suffer from food insecurity since 2021, according to UN estimates.

The complex crises afflicting the regime-controlled areas warn of a decline in the standard of living of Syrians to unprecedented levels in the coming year.

However, the question remains: Will the Syrian regime be able to restore balance to its areas of influence and provide the minimum needs of the population for the year 2023?