Beirut -
Perhaps the most prominent thing that Lebanon witnessed was the completion of parliamentary elections in May 2022, which led to a parliament in which no political party prevailed, which was evident in the inability of the blocs to elect a president for the country.
The year concluded with 10 sessions, the star of which was the "white paper", after the term of President Michel Aoun, who left Baabda Palace on October 30, ended.
Many were optimistic about the completion of the demarcation of the southern maritime borders with Israel, noting that this would be reflected in controlling the rhythm of the border reality.
Some believe that the repercussions of the departure of the leader of the "Future Movement" Saad Hariri from the political and electoral scene in 2022 have not yet ended, not only at the level of the Sunni community, which suffers from dispersion in its representation, but also at the level of the balancing forces that lost one of their most prominent partners.
In parallel, the Christian political arena is witnessing a fierce struggle centered on the presidential elections, and the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gebran Bassil, is a common opponent of the other forces, from the Lebanese Forces Party, to the Kataeb Party, the Marada Movement, and other independents.
In anticipation of the coming year, Al Jazeera Net interviewed 3 writers and political analysts, namely Hussein Ayoub, Ali Hamadeh and George Alam.
How can the year 2022 be evaluated in the Lebanese political scene?
Hussein Ayoub goes back to the fall of 2019, which witnessed "the country's political, economic and livelihood collapse", leading to the Beirut port explosion in August 2020. He says that "the system, whose bones trembled at that time, regained its self-confidence in 2022 with the parliamentary elections that reproduced the structure It is itself grafted with a changing dye in form, but it does not differ much in content.
For his part, Ali Hamadeh believes that the year 2022 is characterized by 3 events:
The legislative elections that produced a council with 3 minorities (they are Hezbollah and its allies, the Lebanese forces and their allies, and the group of changeists and independents who are also divided among themselves).
Parliament was unable to provide a quorum of two-thirds to complete the presidential elections on time, after Aoun left the presidential palace.
The demarcation of the borders between Lebanon and Israel, which opened a window of hope for Lebanon to extract its right to explore and extract oil and gas within its fields, as well as the foundations for a long-term truce between Hezbollah and Israel.
While George Alam finds that Lebanon established in 2022, the vacuum of powers, and the exacerbation of the financial crisis that led to the inability of the Lebanese to obtain the most basic services and rights.
The Lebanese Parliament failed, through multiple sessions, to elect a new president for the country (Al-Jazeera)
Will parliament be able to elect a new president in 2023?
Ali Hamadeh finds that the presidential vacancy will last until external options intersect, Arab and Western.
"Hezbollah will not be able to impose a president, as it did in 2016 when electing Aoun," he said.
He believes that the Arab axis has an approach that does not have differences, and "the most prominent actors in this axis are Saudi Arabia, with which Qatar and Egypt stand, in addition to an Emirati position that is consistent with them."
Hamadeh believes that the most likely candidates are the army chief, Joseph Aoun, with what he represents in terms of security stability, or a technocratic figure that enjoys international acceptance.
George Alam questions Parliament's ability to elect a president in 2023 without external pressure, recalling that the political class rejects national dialogue.
For his part, Hussein Ayoub indicates that no one can say for sure whether the presidential elections will be held in 2023 or not.
He said, "Inevitably, we are facing a parliament of minorities in which everyone has the ability to obstruct, not the ability to produce, and it needs major consensus to produce a new president, which is impossible."
He believes that if Saudi Arabia decides to open the door to Suleiman Franjieh, he can be elected president the next day, but "if the internal and external political impasse continues, it is not excluded that the year 2023 will pass without a president."
Ayoub finds that there are two serious candidates for the presidency of the republic, Suleiman Franjieh and Joseph Aoun. ".
How will the caretaker government continue to manage the vacuum in light of the vacancy?
George Alam says, "Naguib Mikati's government is translating the exacerbation of the crisis, and has proven its failure to manage the crisis in return for the lira continuing its resounding collapse to shocking levels, as it crossed the threshold of 45,000 to the dollar."
However, Hussein Ayoub believes that Mikati is armed with the constitution and the strength of his position with what he represents sectarian and doctrinal, and he is certain that his position and position bring him closer to external forces such as Saudi Arabia.
Next year, "Mikati will continue to hold the stick from the middle, and his job is to pass the ball once to this political party and once to that."
It is noteworthy that he finally succeeded in overcoming the defense of his most prominent opponent, Gebran Bassil, and held a government session with a two-thirds majority, despite the latter's refusal to do so.
Ali Hamadeh says that Mikati's government is a fait accompli and no one can ignore it, and it is the only one capable of managing the vacuum, albeit nominally, with limited powers.
What is the political form of the new government if a president is elected?
George Alam says that if the outsiders agree to elect a new president for Lebanon, it will facilitate the formation of a new government, because it will translate a single basket of solutions more like a reform political road map, given that what is required of Lebanon is an integrated program to help it get out of its crisis.
Hamadeh points out that the government is the biggest challenge, ruling out that Mikati will be lucky to lead it. "After the parliamentary elections, the Arab axis may seek to be the first Sunni site to be closer to it," and Mikati - in his opinion - "does not possess the full specifications of this rapprochement."
Likewise, Hussein Ayoub believes that the identity of the next government will be part of a settlement that includes the presidency of the Republic, the government, the ministerial statement, and the priorities of the next reform phase, especially the signing of the agreement with the International Monetary Fund.
French President Emmanuel Macron visited Lebanon and presented two political initiatives, but they failed to resolve the (European) political crisis.
How will the influential regional powers deal with the Lebanese arena next year?
Hussein Ayoub says that Iran and America have a significant presence in Lebanon, and that France benefits from the American mandate, but there are limits to this authorization, and then Washington is forced to intervene directly.
As for Saudi Arabia, it is - in his opinion - in the stage of "testing and improvisation", just as it came late weeks before the parliamentary elections.
Ayoub expected the convening of an international regional meeting for Lebanon that could set a road map for the political and economic file in Lebanon.
Hamadeh believes that, starting from the beginning of next year, the level of interest and external interference in the Lebanese file may expand, and it may be necessary to elect a new president to ensure stability.
He finds that Washington assigning Paris to the presidential file, "because it is in contact with all Lebanese forces, including Hezbollah, and seeks to accomplish the merits by electing a consensual figure that does not constitute a provocation to any regional party."
And he adds, "As long as Hezbollah is an Iranian regional case inside Lebanon, major events, such as the presidential elections, cannot be accomplished without a parallel regional intervention."
Alam states that France had previously presented two political initiatives, but they failed.
He says that the Ukrainian-Russian war has had serious repercussions on the world, as Lebanon is no longer at the top of the list of global priorities in light of the multiplicity of major crises, the emergency shift in international alliances, and the absence of global consensus among the forces affecting it.