The year ended was marked by radical changes in Russia's foreign policy, as it witnessed the deepest crisis with Western countries after the outbreak of the war on Ukraine last February, which exploded all the accumulated contradictions between Moscow and the West.

The Russian newspaper Profile published a report by writer Ivan Timofeev, in which he said that the economic sanctions against Russia were one of the results of that crisis. In a short time, it was removed from the circle of Western globalization, while the local economy succeeded in dealing with the sanctions. It's not catastrophic.

Timofeev asked what can be expected from the sanctions against Russia in 2023, indicating that the sanctions are considered the largest since World War II against one of the major countries, as they included banning financial transactions and investment, stopping exports to Russia, imposing restrictions on Russian imports, transportation and visas, and setting a price ceiling. Russian oil.


Friends warned

The writer pointed out that the fear of secondary sanctions and punitive measures for violating the sanctions regime includes even friendly countries whose companies show excessive caution in working with Russia, as the delay or cancellation of bank payments has become evident everywhere, in addition to the loss of foreign markets, and a remarkable disruption in the chain of transmission. Familiar supply.

Timofeev explained that what is surprising is the stability of the Russian domestic economy in the short term. Although inflation, the ruble exchange rate, prices, unemployment and other indicators have led to unpleasant decisions, the repercussions have generally remained under control, and there is a noticeable decline in a number of industries. But it is not noticeable and does not have a cumulative effect yet.

2023

Regarding what is expected during the new year, the writer indicated that the first and clear answer is that the sanctions will deepen more, as it is expected that the sanctions will be strengthened within the framework of the existing mechanisms, or in other words, the sanctions will not increase in breadth, but they will deepen.


Timofeev believes that the most expected scenario is the renewal of the lists of banned persons, as well as the group of goods prohibited for export and import from Russia, considering that the renewal of the "black lists" to include all new Russian political and public figures will not affect the economy in any way.

And he indicated that the sanctions currently imposed are more dangerous, and their effects will accumulate. Although Russia managed to transfer large quantities of its oil to Asian markets, it sells it at a cheaper price, and because it will be difficult to replace the markets for petroleum products, reorientation to Asia is inevitable, but the costs It will be higher and the return lower. Therefore, a decrease in the production and export of oil, gas, petroleum products, coal and ferrous metal products is expected in the next few years.

The writer referred to what he considered another serious problem, which is the shortage of industrial and high-tech goods and components.


parallel ocean

According to the author, in order to overcome these problems, a "parallel ocean" will be formed for cooperation with Russia in China, India, Turkey and other countries, taking into account the danger of sanctions that include those who deal with Moscow, and industrial and financial groups that focus exclusively on cooperation with the Russian Federation will begin to Appearance, and secondary sanctions will not stop it.

He stressed that the West will not be able to isolate Russia, but in return sanctions can increase costs and complicate foreign trade.