ISLAMABAD -

The political scene in Pakistan has not been stable since the beginning of 2022, as the struggle for power was at its most intense, and now the scene is getting more tense with the start of a new year.

The conflict is still intense between the current government, which is led by a coalition of several parties, and the opposition led by the former prime minister and leader of the Pakistani "Insaf" Imran Khan.

What are the most prominent political events witnessed in 2022 in Pakistan?

Since the beginning of March, Imran Khan has been facing a vote in the National Assembly (Parliament) of no confidence in his government, a vote he had survived the year before as he called for a vote of renewal of confidence in his government after a crisis with the opposition accusing him of winning the elections with the support of from the army.

On April 9, the opposition in parliament succeeded in passing a motion of no confidence in Khan's government, which prompted him to accuse it and other parties in the country of conspiring with the United States to overthrow his government.

After only two days, Parliament elected a new government that included ministers from the parties that brought down the government of the Insaf Party, and Shahbaz Sharif, the leader of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz Sharif's wing), was elected prime minister, which made Imran Khan describe it as an "imported government."

Khan took advantage of the street heat to promote the conspiracy narrative and external interference to mobilize his supporters and put pressure on the new government, hoping to force it to hold early elections - which has not happened until now - despite the repeated protests and demonstrations that Khan has led over the past months.

At the beginning of November, in the midst of his pursuit of this goal, Khan was subjected to an assassination attempt in the city of Wazirabad in the Punjab province (east of the country), which made the political crisis enter a dark tunnel, especially after the accusation of Imran Khan, the Prime Minister, Minister of Interior, and a senior leader in Pakistan's military intelligence was implicated in that attempt.

A mass gathering of supporters of the Insaf Party led by Imran Khan in the city of Rawalpindi near the capital (communication sites)

Where did the conflict between the government and the opposition in Pakistan?

The state of tension escalated in the Pakistani arena, and the state of anger among Khan's supporters also escalated after the attempt on his life, which Imran Khan exploited to stress the necessity of holding early elections.

Some believe that Imran Khan is still very popular in Pakistan, according to the crowds that he is still able to gather, and the results of the by-elections won by his party in Punjab, the largest province in Pakistan in terms of the number of voters.

Some also believe that the appointment of a new army commander in November will have a major impact on the course of the conflict, especially in light of the prevailing belief in the country that the new commander's relationship is not good with Khan.

During the past months, Imran Khan did not stop hinting at the responsibility of the military establishment or prominent military figures for overthrowing his government, and here Khan confirms those statements as he accused the former army commander, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, of conspiring with the United States to overthrow his government.


What future awaits the struggle between the government and the opposition in Pakistan?

In another attempt to pressure the federal government into holding early elections, Khan announced his intention to dissolve the provincial assemblies of Punjab (east) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (northwest), which his party controls, and thus dissolve the two provincial governments.

On the future of the conflict between the government and the opposition in Pakistan, some suggest that the conflict will continue as it is, especially in light of the absence of anything new in Imran Khan's speech.

In this context, the political and strategic analyst, Hudhaifa Farid, believes that the elections will be held as scheduled in advance, after the end of the constitutional term of the current federal government in August, so that the elections will be in October.

In his interview with Al-Jazeera Net, Farid ruled out that early elections would be held, as Khan demands, even if the governments of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were dissolved.

Alternatively, the government could hold elections in the two regions only without going to general elections.

Farid believes that the current situation, which is witnessing an improvement in the economic situation, the value of the currency, and a decrease in the inflation rate, which is expected to continue during the next year, is in the interest of the government, especially if we take into account that "people's memory is weak," as he put it.

On the other hand, Farid believes that Imran Khan's statements against the former army commander have led to a clash between him and one of his closest allies in the Pakistan Muslim League (Qaid-i-Azam).

This is confirmed by the writer and journalist Zahid Hussain in an opinion article on the Pakistani newspaper DAWN, who says that Khan's statements against the former army chief made Ally Khan and the leader of the League party (Jannah Commander-in-Chief) retreat from the idea of ​​dissolving the regional parliaments.

Hussain believes that the federal government alliance will take full advantage of the widening gap in the ruling coalition in Punjab (Insaf Party and the League Party - the wing of the Greatest Leader), and may even dissolve the alliance between them.

Regarding Khan's options for dealing with the next stage, Farid says that Imran Khan risks the cards he plays with, and he has no choice but to wait until the general elections and not take any other step.

He also believes that the solution of the governments of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is not in his favor.

The door to conflict between the political parties remains wide open at a time when some are talking about Imran Khan's political cards running out.

The question also remains about the return of Khan and his party to the street again as a fixed card to put pressure on the government, at a time when he still has popularity that will keep him present and strong in the political scene during the coming period.