Occupied Jerusalem -

Coinciding with the return of Benjamin Netanyahu to power in Israel, who is considered the godfather of the option of a military strike on the Iranian nuclear project, political assessments are unanimous that Washington is interested in returning to the nuclear agreement, despite President Joe Biden's statements that the agreement has "died", and the Israelis believe that This path is of strategic interest to them.

According to the Hebrew newspaper Haaretz, Israeli security assessments regarding Washington's desire to return to the track of negotiations with Tehran carry messages to Netanyahu, who is the main catalyst for former US President Donald Trump's withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and the reinstatement of sanctions imposed on it.

These messages call on Netanyahu's new government to avoid a clash with the White House, and the need to define a clear strategy to deal with the nuclear file, through an international and European alliance, especially in light of the consensus on Israel's unpreparedness for a direct military confrontation with Iran, and its inability to launch a military strike on its own. for its nuclear facilities.

In assessing the position of the "National Security" Research Center affiliated with Tel Aviv University regarding the difficulties in negotiations to renew the nuclear agreement and its repercussions on Israel, the center believes that the continuation of the status quo has serious repercussions for Israel.

Therefore, the course of negotiations and a return to the agreement, no matter how bad it may be, is a strategic interest for Israel, in order to prevent Tehran from accumulating enough fissile material to enrich large quantities of uranium.

Security research estimates urge the Israeli government to support a return to the Iranian nuclear agreement (agencies)

Correct the error

On the other hand, the estimates of the Military Intelligence Division of the Israeli army, Aman, and its recommendations to the new Netanyahu government seemed more clear, as it is believed that Israel should push for a return to the nuclear agreement or reach a new nuclear agreement with Iran, to replace the previous deal that collapsed due to Trump's withdrawal. This was considered a "strategic mistake".

According to Israeli intelligence estimates, Tel Aviv is increasingly concerned about the progress in the Iranian nuclear program, especially since Western intelligence agencies agree that Iran has become a "nuclear threshold state", which enables it to move to uranium enrichment at the military level by 90%, and reach in Within a few weeks, it produced enough enriched uranium to build a nuclear bomb.


Fears and crises re-negotiations

These Israeli estimates came while the international community and the United States are preoccupied with tensions with China and Russia's war in Ukraine, at a time when Iran is racing against time with escalating steps - according to analysts - towards stabilizing the nuclear project, especially in light of the suspension of negotiations to return to the 2015 agreement with the superpowers and Washington.

Yoav Limor, a military analyst for "Israel Hayom" newspaper, suggested that Washington's concerns about the rate of accumulation of highly enriched uranium were behind the resumption of the administration of President Joe Badin's negotiations with Iran in order to return to the original nuclear agreement, and these are the same reasons that push Washington to the negotiating table. New, and it is also in the interest of Iran, which is witnessing internal protests and dire economic conditions.

The military analyst explained that the various Israeli security services, with the exception of the Mossad, agree on the need for Washington to return to the agreement with Iran, given that Tehran's monitoring without an agreement is very limited and almost non-existent.

The Mossad opposes a return to the original agreement, and stipulates a new agreement that would actually make Iran away from nuclear weapons for a long time, and limit its influence in the Middle East and its military position in Syria.

Previous Israeli-American security consultations on the Iranian nuclear file (Al-Jazeera)

agreement or the military option

The former head of the Military Intelligence Division in the Israeli army, AMAN, Major General Reserve Tamir Hayman, believes that scenarios for negotiations between Iran and the superpowers still exist, suggesting that this path may be continuing behind the scenes, while Tehran is moving forward with the nuclear project.

Hayman said - in his interview with Al-Jazeera Net - that there is a strategic Israeli interest in containing the Iranian nuclear project, whether by returning to the old agreement, which is led by America, or by turning the page on the past and heading to conclude a new nuclear agreement according to developments, in addition to discussing alternative paths, including The military option through a global and regional strategic alliance centered on Israel.

He pointed out that the regional conditions, as well as the Russian-Ukrainian war and the strengthening of China's influence in the Middle East, are all factors that indicate that the interest of America and the West is to return to negotiations and reach a nuclear agreement with Tehran, while the outgoing Israeli government, as well as the new one, does not have a strategic vision. clear to deal with the Iranian nuclear project.

He hinted that it was in the interest of America, Europe and Israel to reach a formula for an agreement with Tehran.

He attributed this to the failure of negotiations, the absence of any understandings, and the lack of international oversight over Iran's nuclear energy facilities, bringing Iran closer to becoming a nuclear power, which means strengthening the rule of the current Iranian regime.

The former head of AMAN believes that the Iranian nuclear file presents Netanyahu's new government with great challenges, especially in light of the Russian-Iranian rapprochement in Ukraine and Syria, which necessitates refraining from clashing with the US administration and coordinating more with Europe to deter Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, whether With the option of negotiations and agreement, or even with the military option, at his discretion.


A common interest for Iran and America

At the diplomatic level and regional and international alignment, Nimrod Goren, head of the Israeli Institute "Mitvim" that specializes in the foreign policies of Israel and the Middle East, saw that returning to the path of nuclear negotiations is a common interest for Iran - which is witnessing internal protests and a crisis economy - and for America because of the Russian war in Ukraine and the escalation of tension. With China in a lot of files.

Jorn attributed - in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net - Washington's return to negotiations with Iran to the Russian-Iranian rapprochement, Tehran's support for Moscow in the war in Ukraine and its repercussions for allies in Europe, as well as the strengthening of Chinese influence in the Middle East, and Netanyahu's assumption of the premiership in Israel and "he is the godfather of the military option." and strike Iran's nuclear facilities.

The Israeli expert believes that the aforementioned factors combined would contribute to the decline of America's presence as a superpower, and undermine its ability to influence incendiary files in the event that its alliances in Europe or even with the Arab countries in the Middle East are shaken. It is likely that Biden betrayed his expression when he stated that the nuclear agreement had He died, especially since the Pentagon is pushing and supporting the signing of a nuclear agreement with Iran.