Martin Kragh, deputy director of the Center for Eastern European Studies, believes we will see a continued war of attrition reminiscent of the fighting in the fall and winter.
At the same time, he predicts that there probably won't be any major breakthroughs, even though Ukraine will probably have a certain advantage.
- We haven't even seen the beginning of the end in this conflict.
The longer it drags on, the more unpredictable the end point will be, says Martin Kragh.
It could be decisive
You don't think the war will end in 2023?
- As it currently stands, both parties have incentives to continue fighting because they see that it strengthens their possible negotiating position further down the line.
What will be decisive in the war?
- For the Russian side, it's about succeeding in mobilizing in the way you have planned.
The original plan was for Ukraine to fall within just a few days.
What we have seen now is a kind of reactive behavior with mobilization and some kind of formal annexation of four regions.
"Dependence on Western support"
Ukraine has problems that resemble Russia's, according to Martin Kragh.
- They have no problem finding volunteer soldiers.
An overwhelming majority of the people are behind Zelenskyi but they are dependent on the support of the West in the form of artillery, ammunition and more advanced weapons.
In the clip above, you can hear several experts talk about how the war in Ukraine may develop in 2023.