South Korean analyst: Pyongyang has 40 nuclear warheads and missiles that can reach America

China's support for the North Korean nuclear program is in its interest

• Biden called on Xi Jinping to put pressure on Pyongyang to halt its nuclear activity.

  A.F.B

• Pyongyang continues to develop nuclear weapons.

  Reuters

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The United States and South Korea continue to urge Beijing to prevent a seventh nuclear test by North Korea.

There was a flurry of meetings and statements, including requests from US President Joe Biden and his South Korean counterpart, Yun Sok Yol, for Chinese leader Xi Jinping to put pressure on Pyongyang during face-to-face meetings during the G20 summit. On the Indonesian island of Bali last month.

“There is an assumption behind all this activity that Beijing does not really want North Korea to have nuclear weapons,” said Joel Atkinson, a professor at the School of International Studies at Hankuk University in Seoul, South Korea.

It is said that if the United States and its allies can find the right mix of intimidation and intimidation, they can push Beijing to act according to its interests.

China's role

On the other hand, opponents of this approach generally agree that China would be able to work to roll back Pyongyang's nuclear program if it could, but this is very costly for Beijing and the United States, because it involves changing the calculations.

North Korea now has about 40 nuclear warheads and missiles that can reach the US mainland.

In any case, it is entirely plausible that China would actually support North Korea's nuclear program rather than oppose it.

Analysts should take into account the interests of North Korea and China, which are more closely aligned on nuclear weapons than many suppose, Atkinson said.

First, there is a broad consensus among experts that China fears that South Korea and Japan will develop nuclear weapons in response to North Korea's arsenal.

thoughtlessness

But in order to be clear with them on this issue, it can be said that there is no need for North Korea to care whether South Korea and Japan have nuclear weapons or not.

This is unlikely, given that North Korea is much smaller than China, that a nuclear attack against it would be comparatively worse, and that it has far fewer resources to spend on a retaliatory deterrent.

More likely is that both China and North Korea agree that it would be bad for South Korea or Japan or both to have nuclear weapons, but the danger can be controlled.

And you will be right.

This is the end of 2022, and North Korea has a nuclear arsenal that is growing, and as it is known, Japan and South Korea have not even initiated the implementation of nuclear programs.

"It may or may not change in the future, but no one should expect Pyongyang to give up its nuclear weapons now that it has come so far just because there is an indefinite danger ahead," Atkinson said.

Expert consensus

The question is: “Why is the consensus of experts?” There is a simple explanation, which is misinformation on the part of China. While North Korea is busy developing weapons, using some Chinese components and technology, China strongly opposes South Korea and Japan having nuclear weapons, and raises the possibility that it will put pressure on Korea. North for nuclear disarmament.

The second widespread assumption is that China fears the instability and increased war risks that North Korea brings to the region.

This seems unlikely, because Pyongyang would lose even more than China if a war breaks out, as it is smaller and weaker and is the main target.

But what about the impact of "instability" on China's development?

The truth is that after decades of crises caused by North Korea, you will not find any noticeable impact on China's economy.

One could still say that North Korea sees more benefit in having nuclear weapons than China does, and is therefore more willing to take risks and pay the associated price.

China has been reluctant to join US-led efforts against Pyongyang's nuclear program because it fears North Korea's collapse.

According to this view, China is concerned about an influx of refugees, and the loss of an important buffer against the American threat.

But it is clear that North Korea is more interested in avoiding its collapse.

Does Pyongyang not see nuclear weapons as a way to ensure the security of the regime?

It is then clear, Atkinson noted, that it should not simply be assumed that Beijing does not share Pyongyang's view that nuclear weapons strengthen the regime.

Nor should we rule out the possibility that the weapons are not for defense, but for offense to pressure the United States to get off the Korean peninsula so that unification with the South can be achieved on the North's terms.

After all, the regime itself says that weapons are "a means of securing the peaceful unification and survival of the ethnic race."

If so, there is no reason to assume that China opposes North Korea's nuclear arsenal.

China's general strategic situation will improve if the US forces leave the Korean Peninsula and South Korea leaves the US alliance system.

Atkinson concluded his report by saying, "There is nothing so different between the interests of North Korea and China that it should simply be assumed that China opposes Pyongyang's nuclear weapons. On the contrary, in light of North Korea already developing capabilities without China taking effective action." To prevent it, it is certainly assumed that Beijing supports Pyongyang's nuclear weapons programme.

• It is more likely that both China and North Korea agree that it would be a bad thing for South Korea or Japan or both to have nuclear weapons, but the danger can be controlled.

• Analysts must take into account the interests of North Korea and China, which are more closely aligned on nuclear weapons than many assume.

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