Washington

- The Russian attack on Ukraine on the one hand, and the increasing Chinese threats to invade Taiwan on the other hand, sent negative messages to Japan and Germany regarding the doctrine of arming their armies.

The development of military and economic relations between Russia and China, and their regularity in carrying out massive military maneuvers in which tens of thousands of their soldiers participate, doubled the sense of the absence of a German or Japanese military deterrent against any Russian or Chinese escalation.

Since the end of World War II with their defeat and surrender, the two countries have adopted pacifist constitutions that have limited their ability to build strong armies or play any military role in foreign conflicts.

And very quickly, Japan and Germany are witnessing accelerated steps towards changing the doctrine of arming their armies, which raises a lot of concern among the opponents of the two countries in China, Russia and North Korea, at a time when these steps are very welcomed in Washington.

In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, Steve Pifer, an expert on European affairs and disarmament at the Brookings Institution, commented on this shift, saying that there is "American understanding and broad support for the decisions taken in Tokyo and Berlin to increase defense spending and enhance the capabilities of their armies."


Armament budgets

Last week, Japan revealed a record military budget of $51.4 billion, justified its approval of a new defense policy to counter Chinese military influence, and described China as an "unprecedented strategic challenge" to its security, in addition to North Korea's threats.

On the other hand, the German parliament (Bundestag) recently approved by a large majority a constitutional amendment that allows billions in investments for the benefit of the German army.

On May 31, German Chancellor Olaf Schultz said that his country will soon have the largest regular army of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Europe, adding that this will greatly enhance the security of Germany and its allies.

Tokyo feels dangerous

Japan has been looking to boost its military capacity and boost its defense spending since Prime Minister Fumio Kishida came to power in October 2021.

Because of the geographical proximity of Taiwan, which is only about 100 kilometers from Japan's Yonaguni Island, many experts believe that the security of the Taiwan Strait is a natural concern for Tokyo.

Japan also has disputes with China over the Senkaku island chain in the East China Sea.

In addition to the "risks" posed by China, earlier this year North Korea launched long-range ballistic missiles over Japan.

Under Article 9 of Japan's constitution, Tokyo pledged to "renounce war forever" after its defeat in World War II, allowing its armed forces to fight only to defend the country.

However, two years ago, Japan became one of the pillars of a quadruple alliance of Australia, India and the United States to counter China's growing influence.

"Over the past two decades, Japan has watched China steadily build its military forces and take a more threatening stance towards Taiwan, while North Korea this year launched a record number of long and medium-range missiles, some of which passed over Japanese territory," says the expert Beaver.

The German chancellor walks near an F-35 during an exhibition in Berlin last summer (Getty Images)

Lost trust

On the other hand, on the European scene, Peifer believes that "the German government has realized that Russia is not the partner it had hoped to be, and that the Kremlin's ambitions may extend beyond Ukraine."

Moreover, the Germans are likely to realize that "Asia and dealing with the rise of China will take more American attention, resources, and military focus."

Germany was among the NATO members criticized by former President Donald Trump for failing to meet the organization's minimum commitment of 2% of GDP for defense spending.

Berlin also hesitated to impose strong sanctions on Russia given Germany's heavy dependence on Russian gas, which constitutes about 30% of energy supplies.

Germany has shut down the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline supplying gas from Russia, an $11 billion joint venture that would have doubled Russian gas exports to Germany after Russia's military intervention in Ukraine.

On the first of last July, the German federal government approved the draft federal budget for 2023, as well as the special fund for the German army that was announced after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The volume of military spending in 2023 will be approximately $55.4 billion. Germany has also begun steps to establish a special fund worth 100 billion euros to modernize the German army. Recently, Berlin announced that it had concluded a deal with Washington to purchase 35 F-35 aircraft. ).

Germany took unprecedented military steps since the end of World War II, as it provided Ukraine with more than a thousand anti-tank missiles and 500 anti-aircraft Stinger missiles.

The German government also stopped many restrictions on German-made weapons being sent to conflict zones, enabling more third countries to send weapons to Ukraine as well.

Elements of the Japanese army during the maneuvers that took place in Hokkaido last year (French)

American interest

Japanese and German decisions to enhance their conventional defense capabilities are largely in the interest of the United States.

In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, Robert Pearson, professor of international relations at West Point, the most famous US military academy, considered that with regard to the rearmament of Japan and Germany, two of America's most important allies in East Asia and Europe, "this is a positive development for Washington, We are in an era of increasing great power competition, in which reactionary authoritarian powers like Russia and China pose growing threats to their neighbors, many of whom are democratic allies of the United States.

Pearson pointed out that "the Western alliance is stronger when all partners share the burden of defending our common interest in global stability and security, hence the increasing investments made by Germany and Japan constitute a positive contribution to that common mission."

For his part, the European expert told Al-Jazeera Net that "the presence of stronger allies relieves some of the burden on the United States and can enhance deterrence of potential adversaries."

He adds that it is likely that decisions to spend more on defense in both Tokyo and Berlin will be affected if the Republicans return to the White House, especially since former President Donald Trump adopted the "America First" policy, which was translated in the capitals of the two countries as an American abandonment of its defense commitments. about them.