Foreign Policy: Will 2023 be more peaceful than 2022?

The year 2022 gathers its papers, signaling the departure, and the world prepares to receive a new year, hoping that it will not be filled with conflicts and wars, as was the case before it.

Like other media outlets, the American magazine "Foreign Policy" published an article by two researchers on strategic and security issues that included their expectations for the year 2023.

In their joint article, which came in the form of a dialogue between them, Emma Ashford, a researcher at the Stimson Center, and Matthew Kroenig, deputy director of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security of the Atlantic Council, painted an optimistic picture - albeit with some caution - of what the situation will lead to in the new year.

The two agreed that the year marking the departure witnessed a slow and steady recovery from the effects of the emerging Corona virus (Covid-19).

The article devoted a lot of space to the Ukrainian crisis and its repercussions on the global economy, describing the war in that country as the largest geopolitical event in 2022.

unipolar end

Ashford says that the scale of the war - and the Western reaction to it - surprised almost everyone, adding that the war witnessed in its beginnings a rapid advance of the Russian army until it reached the outskirts of the capital, Kyiv, with the aim of overthrowing the government of President Volodymyr Zelensky, before it was stopped thanks to the exchange of information by Western intelligence agencies. Among them, the audacity of the Ukrainians, in addition to the shortcomings of Moscow's military competence.

For his part, Kroenig believes that the war in Ukraine showed that the European allies do not form a homogeneous bloc.

It also shed light - for the first time - on the new strategic concept of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) towards China.

The authors of the article - or rather the two interlocutors - believe that the "unipolar moment", which was characteristic of the post-Cold War era, has ended and that something else is taking shape.

The post-Cold War dream of integrating Russia and China as stakeholders in a rules-based order is now dead, says Ashford.

"economic fragmentation"

Her colleague Kroenig believes that the free world has begun to disengage from Russia, and has begun to separate selectively and deliberately from China.

The article/dialogue expects that the world will become more and more "fragmented" economically, and that trade and investment patterns will spread geopolitical alliances.

The economy will become a battleground between the great powers in the next few years.

As for what the trajectories of major events will look like in 2023, the Foreign Policy article answers by saying that it is likely that the Chinese government will face a problem related to the high death toll due to the outbreak of the Covid-19 epidemic again, and the outbreak of more social strikes as a result.

Also, the other big tracks that occurred in 2022 are expected to continue in the new year, as the energy crisis in Europe will worsen further, after its high prices forced many in the old continent to make difficult choices regarding their budgets.

Inflation and the repercussions of the war in Ukraine on food and fuel have their effects on the budgets of developing countries, with the possibility of starting a new round of sovereign debt crises.

Iran's nuclear programme

For his part, Kroenig expressed his hope that the pro-freedom protests in Iran would continue during the new year, although he did not expect its goals to be fully achieved in 2023, adding that he was nonetheless happy that it would be the beginning of what he calls a "fourth wave of democracy" that tends to transition. From one tyrannical political system to another adopting a democratic approach.

He said that he feared that international efforts would fail in 2023 to prevent Tehran from building a nuclear bomb, stressing that negotiations are stalling while Iran continues its nuclear program.

The war in Ukraine

As for Ukraine, the deputy director of the Scowcroft Center expects that the war will continue through 2023, and perhaps until 2024 and 2025.

Therefore, it is very important - in his view - that Western governments abandon their narrow-mindedness and short-term mentality and pursue a long-term strategy regarding the future of Ukraine.

Ashford agrees, adding that there is an opportunity for policymakers to push for a cease-fire in at least 2023, warning that the costs of the war are spiraling out of control for almost all sides.

The researcher at the Stimson Center believes that popular attitudes across Europe are moving towards pushing for a settlement of the conflict, even in the United States, where 47% of Americans demand President Joe Biden's administration to search for ways to end the war.

And she affirms that the world is now living in a different era, expressing - at the same time - her fear that the year 2023 does not seem to be more peaceful than it was this year.

The researcher points out that next year marks the 20th anniversary of the US invasion of Iraq, "which seems far away now and from a different era in history."

And she warns - at the end of the article - that the United States may make new mistakes in foreign policy, but at least it is no longer overthrowing regimes as it usually did.