The threat of “Trumpism” threatens American democracy, even after the departure of the former president
2022 writes the beginning of the end for Trump and the "Maja" Republicans
Trump's reputation has suffered since announcing his candidacy for the 2024 elections, and he has lost much of his credibility within his party.
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Trump supporters attack the "Capitol" building on January 6, 2021. Archives
In this election, Biden enjoyed the strongest performance in the first-term midterm elections of any president in 88 years.
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Trump and his supporters were counting on the "red tide", but the results were disappointing.
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2022 is the year of conflicts erupting... and an attempt to redraw "maps"
It may be a matter of superficiality and ignoring the facts if we consider that 2022 was a normal year, because the events that took place in this year were truly exceptional and affected their consequences and effects, and perhaps their specificity, on the whole world, because some of them were an attempt to redraw maps.
Given that the world’s events are many and we cannot go over all of them, we will try to address the most important ones, such as the explosive demonstrations in Iran a few months ago, which shook the Iranian regime from within, and sparked mixed reactions across the world, and the Ukraine war and its economic and geopolitical effects on The countries of the world, especially the European continent, the departure of Queen Elizabeth, who formed a large part of Britain's modern history, and enjoyed great popularity around the world, the visit of the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, to Taiwan and the challenge of China, and the visit of President Joe Biden to the Middle East and the responses it provoked. Actions, the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Saudi Arabia and his holding of more than one summit in what can be considered a repositioning of Beijing towards the Middle East, and a reorientation by some Arab countries towards Beijing.
Samir Saeed ■ Dubai /
Since last November until now, former US President Donald Trump went through difficult times, perhaps the worst in his political life.
His chosen candidates in the US Senate lost the competition in the mid-term elections for President Joe Biden, in a race that could have been decided in favor of the Republican Party in the states of New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona, which blew up the Republicans' chances of regaining the Senate.
The same thing happened with his two gubernatorial candidates, who he endorsed in Pennsylvania and Arizona, in exchange for landslide victories for Republican governors who shied away from him or openly criticized him, who won re-election in New Hampshire, Ohio and Georgia.
In addition to previous setbacks, Trump's legal dilemmas are compounding, after his conviction on 17 felony counts of tax fraud and related offenses, along with numerous other federal and state investigations.
Last week also witnessed the release of Trump's long hidden tax returns, while on Monday of the same week, the "January 6" committee in the House of Representatives, concerned with the events of the attack on the "Capitol" building in January 2021, referred four criminal charges to the Ministry of Justice, accusing the president The former insurrection, conspiracy, to defraud the United States and to obstruct Congress.
"multi-part plot"
The commission's final report also accused the former president of a "multi-part conspiracy" to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election, and of failing to do anything to prevent his supporters from ransacking the building.
In this context, the members of the committee issued, last Thursday, their report consisting of 845 pages, after interviewing more than 1,000 witnesses, to find that the report concluded that “the main cause of the sixth of January was one man, former President Donald Trump, who was followed by many others.” .
None of the events of January 6 would have happened without him.
The reputation of the former president has also been damaged since announcing his candidacy for the 2024 elections, and he has lost much of his credibility within his party, especially after having dinner at his home in Florida in Mar-a-Lago with the white nationalist, a Holocaust denier, and anti-Semite, Nick Fuentes, along with the artist Ye (formerly known In the name of Kanye West), who was famous in America for his anti-Semitism, and that he admired Hitler.
Trump was not satisfied with all of the above, but rather began to demand the suspension of the US Constitution, to cancel or re-conduct the 2020 presidential elections, to be subjected to fierce criticism and attacks from Republican elected officials, and even his closest Jewish friends and supporters.
"Maja Republicans"
What preceded raised the level of hostility within the Republican Party towards Trump and his “Trumpist” supporters, whom Biden called “Maja Republicans,” referring to Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement, who see the man as a great burden on the party, and a major factor in the electoral setbacks for the Republicans in the elections. The middle of the session, and this was not the first time that he had caused a great loss to the party.
The former president, who some Republicans like to call a “loser,” led his party to lose 42 seats in the House of Representatives in 2018, then lost the presidential election two years later to Biden, with the latter’s advantage by seven million votes, by a majority of 74 votes in the Electoral College, as it moved Five states won by Republicans in 2016 move to the Democratic column.
Consequently, a large segment of the party has a logical view of the need to remove Trump from the party, or at least prevent him from running on behalf of the Republicans, as a result of that series of failure and collapse in the party's influence and popularity because of Trump.
Is Trump politically finished?
But does all of the above mean that Trump is finished politically?
The truth is that saying the end of Trump is premature. Despite all of the above, the picture is not that bleak that paves the way for a miserable end for the man. It is true that the Republican governor of Florida, Ron de Santis, who is competing with Trump for the party’s nomination for the presidential elections in 2024, enjoys great Republican acceptance and has Great popularity, but it is possible for Trump to win that competition due to the great division in the party, just as happened in 2016, when the votes of the Republican camp fragmented, so that Trump won the nomination, and then won the elections.
Also, the age of current President Joe Biden raises the concerns of Democrats, and many Americans, about the ability of the president, with his old age, to run in the presidential election battle, or his vice president, Kamala Harris, who does not have enough experience, or great influence, to decide the elections in favor of the Democrats.
Since Trump entered politics at the end of his life and became president, no one could have imagined that the man would achieve what he achieved, becoming president of the largest country in the world, after his activity in real estate and business far from politics subsided, to surprise everyone.
Back from scandals
This man has such an uncanny ability to bounce back from scandals that would ruin anyone else's career that they now see Trump as having miraculous powers.
It is true that there is a strong trend within the party against him, but the reality on the ground is that most Republicans are reluctant to move against him, regardless of what he has done or said.
In addition, the anti-Trump team within the party still fears Trump loyalists (Trumpists) to a large extent, after its influence increased during his term.
With regard to his hosting of Kanye West and Fuentes, the criticism and attack were not in a way that posed a threat to the future of the politician, as nothing happened to him, and the same applies to his call to suspend the constitution, although that was enough to end his political career.
The recent elections have clearly demonstrated that distance from Trump constitutes an electoral gain for any Republican candidate, and the issues involved in it that are reproducing over time give strong justifications for senior Republican figures to distance themselves from the man to avoid suspicion, especially after many of his files were officially referred to the Ministry of Justice.
What is certain is that Trump will not be removed from the party unless the cost of his remaining in the party is politically exorbitant, which Trump hastened to achieve over the past few weeks.
Great and favorable opportunity
So the former president has already become an unbearable heavy burden for the Republicans, and his indictments are increasing day by day. The Republicans in the House of Representatives may move to save him and pull him out of the quagmire of his files, but undoubtedly it will be a great and favorable opportunity for the counter-wing in the party to say out loud: The time has come. to get rid of this guy.
Here, it can be said that Trump reads this future trend, the signs of which are looming on the Republican horizon, so he made frantic efforts to attract attention, so he only made matters worse, and now he himself accelerates the pace to the finish line.
But as previously said, the man has an amazing ability to recover from scandals, survive his accumulated files, and the ball is in the court of the Republicans and their seniors now. Either get rid of Trump as soon as possible, or repeat the party’s experience in 2016, and here the party will turn to Trumpism more, to control it. Even if Trump himself is gone.
In addition, the man committed disgraceful precedents in American democracy, the effects of which could last for a long time and constitute a danger even after his departure, including non-acceptance of election results, the peaceful transfer of power, and mishandling of confidential documents.
• Trump committed disgraceful precedents in American democracy, the effects of which could last for a long time and pose a long-term threat to it even after Trump's departure, the most important of which is the non-acceptance of election results, the peaceful transfer of power, and the mishandling of confidential documents.
• Trump will not be removed from the party unless the cost of remaining in the party is politically exorbitant, which has been achieved in the past few weeks. Therefore, the former president has become an unbearable burden for the Republicans, and his indictments are increasing day by day.
• The recent elections have clearly demonstrated that distance from Trump constitutes an electoral gain for any Republican candidate, and the issues involved in it that are reproducing over time give strong justifications for senior Republican figures to distance themselves from the man to avoid suspicion, especially after many of his files were officially referred to the Ministry of Justice.
• Trump has such an uncanny ability to bounce back from scandals that would ruin anyone else's career that they now see Trump as having miraculous powers. It is true that there is a strong trend within the party against him, but the reality on the ground is that most Republicans are reluctant to move against him.
It formed a referendum on the Biden administration and the return of Trump
The congressional midterm elections... the dream of the "red tide" turns into a nightmare
Last November witnessed the midterm elections for Congress with both chambers, the Representatives and the Senate, in which the Republican Party won control of the House of Representatives with a marginal victory, with a majority of less than 10 seats, and failed to regain the Senate, as it lost in the state governors race.
On the other hand, President Joe Biden has every reason to celebrate the results of the midterm elections, especially after the Democrats added the 51st member of the Senate, with the re-election of Senator Raphael Warnock.
This came in light of the historic result of the midterm elections, as the expected result of the president's party was expected to be bleak, so what happened to Biden achieving historic results, which raised his shares and gave him a margin to take more decisions on major internal issues, such as abortion, and democracy that was at the top of the agenda Voter business, even with inflation high on that agenda, plus support for the war in Ukraine?
During that election, Biden enjoyed the strongest performance in a first-term midterm election for any president in 88 years.
He is only the third president in his first term to win or not lose Senate seats, while losing fewer than 10 House seats (along with JFK after the Cuban Missile Crisis, and George W. Bush after 9/11).
Another fact
But there is another fact, which is that this election was seen by many Americans as more like a referendum on Donald Trump, as much as it was related to a referendum on the Biden administration, and this was revealed by the results of the polls that preceded these elections.
In other words, it can be said that Trump has neutralized the impact of low poll results in regards to Biden's endorsement, so that many Americans find it difficult to evaluate Biden and his presidency, without referring to Trump, who is seen by many of his supporters as the elected president.
Trump harmed Republican congressional candidates in the midterm elections, especially those who supported them in the elections and supported his views, as it was evident that their performance was clearly less successful than other Republican candidates, in addition to that they faced strong Democratic candidates.
Perhaps the outcome of the midterm elections during the middle of Biden's term could be reduced to being more a vote against Trump and his supporters than a vote on the achievements of the Biden administration.
Dazzle obscuring the truth
Had Trump not interfered in the Republican primaries, there would have been more “ordinary” Republicans on the ballot, and predictions of a red wave might have been more accurate. good.
During the elections, Republicans who are not supportive of Trump performed well, and achieved significant electoral gains, compared to the camp of Trump supporters, or what we can call “Trumpians.”
A return to a Republican party without Trump may be more natural, and something good for America, but it may pose a problem for some Democrats who need to build a stronger logic for their party than “we are not Trump.”
clear split
The Republican Party has become suffering from a clear and blatant division, after Trump succeeded in splitting its ranks, and divided it into two warring camps within the party, one of which is the traditional wing that preserves the values and morals of the party, which has been tainted by many rumors about the support of some in it for the Democratic candidates in the recent elections, out of spite. The “Trumpists” are in an attempt to weaken Trump, block the way for him to win the party’s nomination in the upcoming presidential elections in 2024, and weaken his camp within the party.
And the second wing represented by Trump and his supporters, which adopts more extreme issues, and provokes crises that threaten the political process in particular, and American democracy, as Biden and his camp like to warn about.
Red tide damage
It also seems that the frequent talk about the "red tide" has greatly harmed the Republican Party, turning it into a nightmare and disappointment for the Republicans in general, and for Trump and his camp in particular, as the latter's camp is the biggest loser in those elections.
What is certain is that the results of those elections will perpetuate the political intrigue between the two parties, as it is expected that the Republicans will take advantage of their control of the House of Representatives by focusing on the issue of the suspicious business transactions of the president and his son, Hunter Biden, in Ukraine and China, and curtailing or closing legal cases related to Trump, especially the attack. On the Capitol Building.
While the small majority of the Democratic Party in the Senate will give the party the opportunity to appoint judges in the Supreme and Federal Constitutional Court, who embrace the ideas of the party, in exchange for the conservatives who currently control them, in addition to thwarting the Republicans’ attempts to open the files of suspicious business transactions for the president and his son Hunter, and thwarting the plans of some Republicans to isolate President.
Democrats will also be able to set the agenda and block bills.
• Excessive talk about the "red tide" greatly harmed the Republican Party, turning it into a nightmare and disappointment for the Republicans in general, and for Trump and his camp in particular.
• The Republican Party is suffering from a clear and blatant division, after Trump succeeded in splitting its ranks and dividing it into two warring camps.
• Perhaps the result of the midterm elections during the middle of Biden's term can be reduced to the fact that it was a vote against Trump and his supporters, rather than a vote on the achievements of the Biden administration.
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