Ice and Fire | Winter is coming, how far is spring in Europe?

　　Chinanews.com, Beijing, December 24.

　　Author Zhang Naiyue He Luman

　　In 2022, winter in the northern hemisphere is coming as promised.

　　"I just woke up from a shivering night and I'm tired." People shivered in the subfreezing cold, but the German Federal Grid Agency appealed-"Despite the cold weather, I still want everyone to pay attention to the use of natural gas." .

　　The sharply escalating Ukrainian crisis has spread for almost a year since the end of last winter.

Under the obstruction of artillery fire and sanctions, the supply of energy and food has encountered difficulties, the global supply chain has been affected, and the inflation tsunami has swept across.

With the Russia-Ukraine peace talks frozen indefinitely, under the economic woes and energy crisis, another unpredictable winter has arrived.

Ukrainian ice

　　"I expect the next winter, and possibly the next winter, to be much worse than this one."

——Serbian President Vucic

Data map: Azov Iron and Steel Works in Mariupol, Ukraine.

　　In the early morning of February 24, just after Putin announced in his nationally televised speech that Russia had launched a special military operation, many places in Ukraine were attacked and smoke was everywhere.

　　In the past 10 months, the situation between Russia and Ukraine has undergone many major turning points. Fierce conflicts broke out at the Azov Iron and Steel Plant, Severodonetsk, Kherson and even several nuclear power plants. Negotiations between the two sides failed several times. Nuclear safety issues, food supply , Energy crises one after another.

　　The growing estrangement between Russia and Ukraine, coupled with the continuous announcement of military aid to Ukraine by many Western countries, has made the already cooling Russia-Ukraine relations worse, and negotiations that were once close to achieving results have also been shelved and frozen into ice.

　　At the same time, snowfall has covered large areas of northeastern Ukraine, and temperatures in many places have hovered below freezing.

The most intense situation has shifted from the south to the Donbas region in the east, and Bakhmut has become one of the most tense places at the moment.

On February 24 local time, the capital of Ukraine, Kyiv, imposed a curfew throughout the city.

Subway stations have become places of refuge for the masses.

The picture shows the subway station in Kyiv, Ukraine.

　　Anastasia, a 25-year-old Ukrainian resident, lives on the 26th floor. She chose to leave in November and go to her parents' residence because she was worried that the floor would not be able to avoid missiles. Prepare".

　　"The best situation is that this situation ends as soon as possible, and then we hope that everything will return to normal." Kseniya, a 50-year-old Russian citizen, said.

　　At the turn of the year, the cold wave hit the land of Eastern Europe again.

Will military action be accelerated?

Analysts are divided.

But from the current point of view, whether it is ordinary people in Russia or Ukraine, it is still a spring with little hope.

energy supply ice

　　"I have two hot water bottles: one by my feet and one that's flexible enough to warm any cold body part."

——Susanna, a German citizen

Data map: "Beixi-1" natural gas pipeline.

　　The turbulent situation in Russia and Ukraine has affected all aspects of the world, and even everyone's life.

In the UK, there is a shortage of sunflower oil in supermarkets; in Germany, small, energy-intensive companies are on the brink of bankruptcy; in France, uncertainty about economic activity is back at a high...

　　Affected by the interruption of Russian natural gas supply and the shutdown of traditional energy production, many European countries have experienced serious energy crises.

Sweden, which was a net exporter of electricity last year, has announced this year that it may experience "occasional blackouts" in winter.

The British government was exposed to conducting "combat exercises" to rehearse in advance the "possible worst-case scenario" of a seven-day power outage across the country.

　　Although many European countries have filled their natural gas storage tanks to more than 90%, they are still "unsure", and they often come up with strange tricks to save energy: Is it too cold?

Wear more sweaters, climb the stairs; not enough hot water?

Speed ​​up the shower.

Fuel for driving?

Go out for a ride and work from home.

On May 4, local time, volunteers from a charity project in the UK were handling food in a storage center.

In the UK, demand for food banks and community food centers has soared.

　　Under the crisis, soaring energy and food prices have pushed up inflation, bringing enormous pressure to people's lives.

A director of a British food bank has seen a growing number of people who come to pick up their food say they don't have the money to pay for gas and electricity, or have access to a microwave or kettle.

　　In order to prepare for the winter, many European families bought the "Eight-piece Chinese Winter Winter Set", which is energy-saving and useful, such as long johns, electric blankets, and hand warmers.

Many others plan to turn off the heating and use firewood, the "oldest fuel" for heating.

　　Recently, with the arrival of storms from the Arctic, the temperature in Europe has gradually dropped, which also means that Europe's heating demand will continue to increase. How will Europe's already fragile energy system respond?

The Ice of Great Power Relations

　　"The cold wave is coming..."

——Vice Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev

　　In the face of economic and energy difficulties, many countries have their own opinions, and dissatisfaction has gradually arisen, and relations have fallen into an icehouse.

　　Since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, the West has launched multiple rounds of sanctions against Russia, ranging from restricting Russian individuals and entities, to freezing Russian assets, promulgating export bans, and discussing energy price caps on Russia to "contain" Russia on all sides.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban bluntly said that this is "a shot in the lungs".

Data map: The military aid provided by the United States to Ukraine.

　　Under the complex situation, the "Beixi-1" natural gas pipeline, the main artery that transports natural gas from Russia to Europe, has undergone several downgassing and overhauls, the supply has been greatly reduced, and it was finally announced that it will be closed indefinitely.

Then, the "Beixi" incident shocked the world. The explosion under the deep sea caused unprecedented damage to the pipeline, which made Europe "give up" on "Beixi" and "frozen" Russia-Europe relations.

　　In addition, some European countries have unequivocally supported Ukraine, and even risked being involved in the crisis to provide military aid and military training. Suspicions abound between Russia and Europe, making it harder to melt the ice.

　　In the face of Europe, which is facing an energy crisis, the United States chose to take the opportunity to "get rich" and sell natural gas to Europe at 3 to 4 times the price.

French President Macron once publicly accused the United States of engaging in "double standards", and selling energy at such a high price is "not what a true friend should do."

　　When industrial groups in various countries were overwhelmed by energy costs and Europe encountered economic difficulties, the "Inflation Reduction Act" introduced by the United States "sneaked" Europe through competitive subsidies.

The European Union, as well as Germany, France and other countries have taken turns to shout out, issuing stern warnings that "may cause supply chain breaks" and "divide the West". Allies are not chilling.

　　The freezing of three feet did not happen in a day, and the difficult situation facing Europe did not happen in a day.

The cold winter of the climate will eventually end, but when will the triple ice melt?

Can it melt when next spring comes?