A new Russian military strategy.. Acknowledgment of failure in Ukraine or a desire for decisiveness?

Moscow -

In light of the ongoing war with Ukraine for more than 300 days without any significant political progress, and in what appears to be preparation for a new phase of the war, the recent expanded meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin came with the leaders of the Ministry of Defense.

The meeting ended with taking a set of new measures that could be put in place in the context of establishing a new military strategy, which observers believe is the most dangerous since the outbreak of the war on February 24.

The decisions of the meeting clearly indicate a tendency to raise the level of military deterrence, and to anticipate any development in the direction of US military aid to Kiev, which could include an aid package, which may include supplying Ukrainian forces with Patriot missiles, which is likely to affect the conduct of military operations.

restructuring

Hence the emphasis on maintaining the balance of nuclear deterrence, through support for the land, air and sea nuclear forces, and the introduction of "Sarmat" intercontinental missiles and "Zircon" hypersonic missiles into military service, in addition to providing the Russian army with all kinds of modern weapons, and providing all combat units with aircraft. without pilot.

During the session, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu called for reforms within the army that take into account, among other things, the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to the east, gradually raising the age of compulsory recruitment from 18 to 21 years, and increasing the number of the armed forces to 1.5 million. and the creation of two new military districts in Moscow and Leningrad (there are 4 military sectors in Russia: Western, Central, Southern and Eastern).

It seems that the recent field developments, and the West's continued provision of financial and military support to Ukraine, in order to secure a kind of military balance for it with Russia, constituted sufficient factors to mobilize a Russian move, to prevent an imbalance in the balance of war.

A proxy war

There is almost a consensus among Russian military and political observers and experts that the new directions of the Kremlin indicate, beyond any doubt, that the confrontation with the West, through the Ukrainian gate, may extend for years.

The director of the Prediction Center, Denis Karkodinov, believes that with the beginning of the new year, the Russian army may launch a large-scale attack inside Ukraine, but this has nothing to do with Putin's recent visit to the joint headquarters of the military operation command, as the West believes, according to his words.

And he explains - in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net - that Putin's recent meeting with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, and the commander of operations in Ukraine, Sergei Surovkin, means that the Russian military leadership will not stop its operations in Ukraine, because the task has not yet been completed.

The Donbass, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions have not yet been completely "liberated" from the Ukrainians, and the Russian leadership also aims to take control of Odessa and Nikolaev, in order to isolate Ukraine from the Black Sea and, thus, cut off an important part of Western arms supplies.

As for the second goal - in Karkodinov's opinion - it is to build a land route to Transnistria, as well as to control the Kharkov and Dnepropetrovsk regions, as "Russian lands that must be restored."

A race against time

Karkodinov's words coincide with what the New York Times reported earlier, that the regions of Zaporozhye and Melitopol could become the next main target of the Ukrainian army's attack.

The newspaper believes that this "strike will allow the Ukrainian forces to open the gates of Crimea."

The Russian measures attach great importance to the time factor, for the Ukrainian forces, which may suffer with the weather conditions in the winter.

From here, strategic expert Yuri Drobinsky does not rule out the possibility of NATO's intervention in the conflict if the Ukrainian forces suffer a "serious defeat" or the Russian forces make a rapid advance towards Kyiv.

He explains that US intelligence reports that "there are enough of our forces there to defend, but not to launch a large-scale attack, but things are likely to change after Moscow's recent decisions regarding the army's new strategy."

In his opinion, the Russian forces must, in any case, destroy the infrastructure of Ukraine, making it impossible for the West to support Kyiv, as it is impossible to end this conflict through a diplomatic solution.

In addition, Russian observers do not see a link between raising the age of compulsory military service and field developments in Ukraine.

Among them is political analyst Stanislav Peschuk, who says that raising the age of conscription to 21 years "is necessary to attract mature people to the ranks of the army."

In his opinion, this will contribute to increasing the military potential of the human resources of the Russian forces, as they will go to the army more aware, mature, and receptive to the requirements of military service, after they have received education and specialization in civilian life.

He explains that to increase the age of conscription, it is necessary to amend the laws, expecting that the deputies will approve the proposal of the Minister of Defense in this regard next year.