Article in Foreign Affairs: Will the war in Ukraine end with Russia's defeat?

An article in the American Foreign Affairs magazine predicted that the war in Ukraine would end with Russia's defeat because of its army's weakness in thinking and poor organization, in addition to the great support from the West for the regime in Kyiv.

Liana Fix - a researcher on European affairs at the Council on American Foreign Relations, and Michael Kimmig, a history professor at the Catholic University of America - wrote in a joint

for the magazine that Russian President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine was intended to be his greatest achievement, and evidence of the progress his country has reached. Since the collapse of the Soviet Empire in 1991.

The annexation of Ukraine was supposed to be a first step in rebuilding the Russian Empire.

Putin intended - according to the article - to show that the United States is a paper tiger, and to prove that Russia, along with China, are heading to play a leading role in a new multipolar international system.

However, things did not turn out that way.

Kyiv withstood the invasion, and its army turned into a "jumping force," thanks in part to a close partnership with the United States and Western allies.

A system that does not learn from its mistakes

In contrast - the article says - the Russian army showed weakness in strategic thinking and organization, just as the political system behind it proved that it does not learn from its mistakes.

The course of the conflict contributed to refuting early and widespread predictions that Ukraine would fall quickly, although setbacks in the situation remain a possibility that cannot be ruled out, in the opinion of the authors.

However, Russia appears to be heading for defeat, and what form this defeat will take is not certain.

3 scenarios

The Foreign Affairs article outlined 3 basic scenarios for the outcome of the war, each with different implications for policymakers in the West and Ukraine.

The first scenario - which is the least likely - is that Russia will admit defeat by accepting a negotiated settlement according to Ukraine's terms.

Many changes are required for this scenario to materialize, given that any semblance of diplomatic dialogue between Russia, Ukraine and the West has faded.

The second scenario of Russia's defeat carries with it a failure in the midst of the escalation of the conflict.

The Kremlin will seek, "disdainfully and contemptuously," to prolong the war in Ukraine, by launching a campaign of sabotage that is not sanctioned by the countries supporting Kiev.

At worst, Russia may resort to a nuclear attack on Ukraine.

Then the war will head towards a direct military confrontation between NATO and Russia, based on the authors' expectations.

In this scenario, Russia would turn into a "rogue state," a transitional phase that has already begun, which would strengthen the West's conviction that Russia poses a unique and unacceptable threat.

Is NATO involved in the war?

The article goes on to say that if Russia crosses the "nuclear threshold", this may prompt NATO to participate in the war by conventional means, which will lead to an acceleration of Russia's defeat on the ground.

As for the last scenario, it is the defeat of Russia through the collapse of the regime, where the decisive battles will take place not in Ukraine, but in the corridors of the Kremlin or in the streets of Moscow.

Putin has tightened his grip on power, and his intransigence in continuing to fight a “losing” war has caused his regime to stand on “shaky” ground, according to the article’s authors, who believe that the Russians will continue to follow their “idiot czar” until a certain point before they turn on him. If the war caused their impoverishment and misery.

The defeat of Russia will provide many opportunities and temptations, among which is the expectation of the disappearance of defeated Russia from Europe.

But defeated Russia - the authors go on - will one day impose itself again, and will seek to achieve its interests on its own terms.

The article advises the West to be ready, "politically and intellectually," for both Russia's defeat and its comeback.