China News Agency, Beijing, December 21st. Question: Will the Argentine economy be "stained" by winning the World Cup again after 36 years?
China News Agency reporter Liu Liang
As the Argentine team won the World Cup for the first time in 36 years, the mood of the Argentine people ushered in a surge, and the whole country was immersed in a sea of joy.
However, when the tide of joy recedes, there are still many economic challenges that need to be addressed urgently.
On December 19, local time, in Buenos Aires, the capital of Argentina, a large number of people celebrated outdoors for the team's victory in the World Cup.
The economy climbed out of the "abyss"?
Earlier this year, Argentina's three-year recession finally came to an end.
From 2018 to 2020, the Argentine economy shrank by 2.6%, 2% and 9.9%, respectively.
In 2020, when the epidemic was the most severe, Argentina, under tremendous economic pressure, declared that it was unable to repay the national debt and "fallen" due to the impact of the epidemic.
In 2021, Argentina's GDP will grow by 10.3% year-on-year, reversing the previous three years of consecutive negative economic growth.
The International Monetary Fund predicts that Argentina's economic growth rate in 2022 will drop compared with 2021, but it is expected to continue its positive growth, with an estimated growth rate of 4%, slightly higher than the regional average growth rate of 3.5%.
"Although the Argentine economy has improved on the surface, it is difficult to hide the economic difficulties." Yue Yunxia, director of the Economic Research Office of the Latin American Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social The problem of high unemployment and poverty rates has become increasingly prominent.
Argentina's latest inflation data for November was as high as 92.4% year-on-year, the highest increase in 30 years.
According to the Central Bank of Argentina, the annual inflation rate will be close to 100% in 2022.
Along with inflation, there is also the poverty rate, which has exceeded 36% in the first half of this year, and the extreme poverty rate has reached 8.8%.
In the early morning of December 19th, Beijing time, in the final of the 2022 Qatar World Cup, the Argentine team defeated the French team with a total score of 7:5 and won the Hercules Cup.
Will the Argentine economy be "stained" after winning the cup?
What does it mean for Argentina to win the World Cup again after 36 years?
A new study by the University of Surrey in the United Kingdom shows that the country that wins the World Cup can often obtain an additional 0.25 percentage points of economic growth in the two quarters after the game.
But in Yue Yunxia's view, the World Cup carries the glory and dreams of the Argentine people, and also records the country's rise and fall.
Argentina won the championship, the spiritual significance is greater than the substantive significance.
She pointed out that domestically, Argentina's current domestic political and economic challenges are intertwined, and winning the championship can boost and unite the morale of the domestic people in the short term.
As far as the region is concerned, Latin America is currently promoting integration. As a major country in Latin American integration, Argentina's victory will help improve its own image and build regional confidence. This will not only help promote regional integration, but also help solve Argentina's external difficulties.
But Yue Yunxia also emphasized that winning the World Cup is a short-term event after all, and it does not mean that Argentina's economic status quo will undergo fundamental changes.
In the long run, we need to return to economic development itself.
Three key factors influencing the Argentine economy
In response to Argentina's current economic problems, the International Monetary Fund has approved loans several times this year to enhance Argentina's debt sustainability, help Argentina cope with high inflation, and fill the gap in social and infrastructure funding.
The International Monetary Fund said that despite the progress made by the Argentine government, the macroeconomic situation in Argentina is still fragile, and the economic growth rate in Argentina is expected to fall to 2% next year.
Looking forward to the economic situation in Argentina next year, Yue Yunxia believes that there are three key factors:
One is international commodity prices.
If international bulk commodity prices can be relatively stable, this can curb the imported inflation facing Argentina to a certain extent, allowing the government to free up its hands to promote domestic economic development and increase the support of endogenous economic power.
The second is the trend of the global epidemic.
Although Latin American countries, including Argentina, have gradually emerged from the epidemic and returned to normalcy, in the short to medium term, the trend of the epidemic still has a significant impact on the recovery of the global economy and trade, which also means challenges to Argentina's economic growth environment next year.
The third is political factors.
Argentina will usher in a general election year next year. From a traditional perspective, domestic political instability may increase in the election year, and political uncertainty will also have a certain impact on the continuity of economic policies.
(use up)