In recent weeks, the number of cases of covid-19 has increased in Sweden.

On Tuesday, the Public Health Authority released its 13th interim report to the government containing two possible scenarios for infection development. 

In both potential outcomes, the peak of infection occurs in early to mid-January and it is assumed that it is the mutated virus variants that will continue to dominate the spread of infection.

- Although there is uncertainty in the scenarios, one possible development is that the strong spread of infection increases for another few weeks before we reach a peak.

This means that there should be preparedness for a continued increased burden in health and social care as well as in society at large for increased sickness absence due to covid-19, says head of department Sara Byfors.

Care exposed

The scenarios differ based on different assumptions about contagion.

In the first scenario, the Public Health Agency assumes that the contagiousness of the virus continues at the same level as today.

In the second scenario, the contagiousness increases by 10 percent, in which case factors such as colder weather and increased indoor contacts are expected to drive the infection.

According to the Public Health Authority, the first scenario is the most likely.

That would mean a contagion similar to the one when the omikron variant spread about a year ago.

Even for healthcare, it could mean a burden similar to that in January and February.

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Photo: Storyblocks/SVT

- Regardless of the scenarios, since two weeks we have seen a sharp increase in the spread of infection, which has led to more people needing treatment for covid-19.

At the same time, the spread of the RS virus and influenza is extensive, which further increases the burden on the healthcare system, says Sara Byfors.