All parties believe in the futility of the "military solution" to the dispute with Tehran
America leaves the door of diplomacy open to Iran's nuclear file
Iran linked the revival of the agreement to the closure of the “IAEA” investigations into the matter of traces of uranium discovered at three sites.
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For nearly two years, the United States has been trying to negotiate the revival of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, but it has failed. Nevertheless, Washington and its European allies refuse to close the door to diplomacy.
Their reasons reflect the danger of alternative methods, such as the unexpected consequences of launching a military strike on Iran, in addition to the belief that there is still plenty of time to change Tehran's course even if it is slowly progressing towards making fissile materials, which, according to officials, it has not been able to manufacture yet, and it is also So far, you haven't been able to make a nuclear bomb.
"I think we have no better option than the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to ensure that Iran does not develop nuclear weapons," European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said last week in Brussels after a meeting of bloc officials.
The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action calls for Tehran to curb its nuclear program in return for economic sanctions relief.
"We have to continue to engage as much as possible in trying to revive this agreement," Borrell added.
The quest to revive the agreement has become more difficult this year, as Iran launched a brutal crackdown on popular protests, and Tehran is said to have sent drones to help Russia in its war with Ukraine, and Tehran has accelerated the development of its nuclear program, all of which raised the political price of easing sanctions on Iran.
"Every day you see more and more observers saying this is the worst time to revive the deal, and we should just squeeze the wretched system out there," said Robert Einhorn, a nonproliferation expert at the Brookings Institution think tank.
"There is a kind of abandonment, even among the staunch supporters of reviving the agreement," he added.
They are emotionally contemplating paying the political price to revive it, but their minds are telling them that it will be really difficult.”
Red line
In 2018, former US President Donald Trump withdrew from the 2015 agreement that limited, in a key clause, Tehran's enrichment of uranium to a purity of 3.67%, much less than the 90% needed to manufacture a nuclear bomb.
Trump reimposed US sanctions on Iran, prompting Tehran to resume previously banned nuclear activities, and reviving US, European and Israeli fears that it might seek a nuclear bomb.
Iran denies it has such ambition.
Iran is currently enriching uranium to 60 percent purity, including at the Fordow facility, which is a site under a mountain, making it difficult to destroy through bombing.
Obtaining fissile material is the biggest hurdle to building a nuclear weapon, though there are other hurdles, particularly the technical challenge of designing a bomb.
A US intelligence report published in late 2007 assessed with high confidence that Iran was working to develop nuclear weapons until the fall of 2003 when it halted work on them.
Diplomats say they believe Iran has not started enriching uranium to 90 percent, which they say they see as a red line.
A Western diplomat said, "If Iran clearly resumes its military program and begins enriching uranium by 90%, the discussion will change completely in the United States, Europe and Israel," noting that the diplomatic track will remain open unless that happens.
And American politicians have become more resistant to the idea of a deal because of Iran's harsh crackdown on protests, which began after the death of 22-year-old Iranian-Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini in September while in the custody of the morality police.
US President Joe Biden's administration has intensified sanctions on Iran in recent months, targeting Chinese entities facilitating Iranian crude oil sales, and punishing Iranian officials for human rights violations.
A senior Biden administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that despite the stalled negotiations, Enrique Mora, the European diplomat coordinating the nuclear talks, "continues to talk to all sides."
"We will continue to press while keeping the door open to return to diplomacy," the US special envoy for the Iranian file, Robert Malley, told reporters in Paris last month, adding that if Iran crosses "a new threshold in its nuclear program, the response will be clearly different," but he did not elaborate. .
Iran linked the revival of the agreement to the closure of the International Atomic Energy Agency investigations into the matter of traces of uranium discovered at three sites.
The United States and its allies did not agree to this condition.
Diplomacy may continue
Several Western diplomats say they do not believe any military action against Iran is imminent, and point out that a strike might simply enhance any Iranian desire to obtain nuclear weapons and risk an Iranian response.
"I don't think ... that any party envisages a military option in the short term," the Western diplomat said.
The solution will not be military, and I do not hear many people calling for it.
A third diplomat said he believed it would be virtually impossible for Israel to bomb Iran without Western support.
The senior Biden administration official added that even if the 2015 nuclear deal cannot be revived, other diplomatic solutions may be possible.
He continued, “Whether, when and how the nuclear deal can be revived is a difficult question.
But even if the agreement dies at some point, this does not mean that diplomacy will be buried with it at the same time.
• American politicians have become more resistant to the idea of a deal because of Iran's harsh crackdown on protests, which began after the death of 22-year-old Iranian-Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini in September while in the custody of the morality police.
• US President Joe Biden's administration has intensified sanctions on Iran in recent months, targeting Chinese entities facilitating Iranian crude oil sales, and punishing Iranian officials for human rights violations.
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