This is the lowest turnout recorded since the revolution that overthrew the dictatorship in 2011: only 11.22% of Tunisians registered on the electoral lists slipped a ballot into the ballot box during the first round of legislative elections, announced , Monday, December 19, the electoral authority in Tunisia.
This massive abstention crowns a lackluster campaign boycotted by the opposition parties, which accuse President Kaïs Saïed of having turned Parliament into a puppet assembly, since the adoption this summer of a new constitution drastically reducing the prerogatives of deputies.
"These legislative elections represented a paradox because they aimed to sign the act of marginalization of Parliament. The voters understood that it was useless to elect deputies who will only have minor powers", summarizes Vincent Geisser, researcher at the Institute for Research and Studies on the Arab and Muslim World (Iremam).
In addition to the boycott of a large part of the political class, the absence of discussion of ideas, the lack of candidacies and the multiplication of profiles unknown to the general public have ended up diverting voters from the ballot.
In several constituencies, Tunisians were only able to vote for a single candidate, the only one having succeeded in fulfilling the drastic conditions imposed by the new electoral law in order to stand.
"General resignation"
This low turnout represents a resounding failure for President Kaïs Saïed, who intended to validate the political and institutional trajectory started since his coup of July 25, 2021. "This represents a very big disappointment because Kaïs Saïed was counting on the will of the people," academic Abdellatif Hannachi told AFP.
"He campaigned on the grounds that he was popular but the results don't back it up."
>> To read: From the coup de force of Kaïs Saïed to the legislative elections, how Tunisia got bogged down in the crisis
“Even if Kaïs Saïed disappointed the voters, this record abstention does not mean that there is a radical opposition which would have formed against the president”, nuance the political scientist Vincent Geisser.
“This disavowal with regard to the electoral process is rather the sign of a general resignation, of a disgust, of a popular disenchantment with regard to politics”, estimates the researcher at the CNRS.
For his part, Kaïs Saïed refuses to see it as a personal disavowal.
The President of the Republic prefers to minimize these poor results, assuring, in a press release published Monday evening, that "the participation rate is not measured only on a single round but on the two rounds".
A locked power
A way of sweeping aside the critics, who see in this low participation a questioning of the legitimacy of the power in place.
The leader of the main coalition of opponents in Tunisia - the National Salvation Front -, Ahmed Néjib Chebbi, has called on President Kaïs Saïed to "leave immediately".
Calls for resignation barely audible in Tunisia, where a weak and dispersed opposition struggles to present itself as a credible alternative.
"There is a political vacuum that has been created in Tunisia both on the opposition side and in the presidential camp, which has neither party nor movement to relay its messages to public opinion", notes Vincent Geiser.
>> To see: In Tunisia, the freedom of the press in danger?
Moreover, the opposition's room for maneuver is extremely limited in legal terms.
The new Assembly will not be able to impeach the President and it will be almost impossible for it to censure the government.
"We are facing a legal impasse because the new constitution [...] provides very few mechanisms to challenge presidential legitimacy," sums up Lilia Blaise, France 24's correspondent in Tunisia.
"The actors who will play a role in the coming months will therefore be outside the political field. Faced with this general discredit, we can envisage a return to the security apparatus, either to restore democracy or, on the contrary, to strengthen this authoritarian process. “, advances Vincent Geisser.
A weakened position vis-à-vis the IMF
Beyond questions of domestic policy, the period of uncertainty that is opening has also had the effect of weakening the Tunisian government engaged in crucial negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Heavily indebted, the country relies heavily on money from the Washington-based organization to provide a breath of fresh air to its public finances.
However, the IMF announced last week the postponement of an agreement on a new loan of two billion dollars.
A blow for a Tunisia mired in a serious economic crisis and whose population has suffered for months from shortages of milk, flour or sugar, record inflation of 10% and fuel prices which have increased five times. in one year.
"These elections have reinforced Western concerns about the course chosen by President Saïed, both on the political and democratic level and on the economic level", explains Vincent Geisser.
"The Western partners have the impression that he governs by rhetoric by appointing people responsible for the socio-economic situation but without having a real program."
After this first round of legislative elections, however, the international community remains cautious and pragmatic given the regional situation.
The United States encourages greater political inclusion, while French diplomacy "takes note" of the low turnout, recalling in passing "the need to undertake, without delay, the reforms necessary for the stability and future prosperity of the country".
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