CAIRO -
It seems that the storms of the Mediterranean will not subside soon.
Since the announcement of gas discoveries in the eastern Mediterranean, political and economic waves have been colliding between the countries of the region, which resulted in an escalating controversy regarding the demarcation of maritime borders, the latest of which was Egypt's announcement of the demarcation of its western maritime borders with Libya, which sparked a regional controversy.
This regional controversy reveals questions about its causes and repercussions on Egypt's geostrategic interests in the gas-rich eastern Mediterranean region, in addition to its repercussions on the tangled political files, especially those related to the Libyan file, and the pace of Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement.
A few days ago, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi issued a decision - published in the Official Gazette - regarding the demarcation of his country's western maritime borders in the Mediterranean, including in its first article that the borders of Egypt's territorial sea begin from the point of the Egyptian-Libyan land border, and it also stipulated that the United Nations be notified of the amendment.
The Egyptian step was opposed by the two governments of Libya (the national unity in Tripoli / appointed by Parliament), as the two Libyan governments called on Cairo not to take unilateral steps in demarcating the maritime borders, and they expressed - in separate statements - their willingness to negotiate bilaterally to serve common interests.
While Greece welcomed the move, Turkey contented itself with inviting Egypt and Libya to launch dialogue and negotiations as soon as possible to define the maritime borders of the two countries, in accordance with international law, and the Anadolu Agency quoted diplomatic sources as saying that “the side maritime borders that Egypt unilaterally identified with Libya with 9 geographical coordinates, do not overlap. with the continental shelf of Turkey in the eastern Mediterranean.
The decision and the regional clash with it came about two months after an agreement signed by Ankara and Tripoli for oil and gas exploration, which is complementary to the maritime border demarcation agreement between the two countries in late 2019.
Egypt and Greece rejected these agreements in light of their opposition to Turkish activity in the disputed maritime areas in the eastern Mediterranean, and in 2020 they signed a joint agreement to demarcate the maritime borders in the eastern Mediterranean.
In this regard, Al Jazeera Net seeks to answer questions posed to experts and analysts about Cairo's motives for the unilateral demarcation and its repercussions.
What are Egypt's motives, and why did it announce the demarcation unilaterally?
"Summit of Reason", two words that the expert in international relations and Egyptian national security, Major General Mohamed Abdel Wahed, started his speech about his country's motives for declaring the demarcation of the western maritime borders unilaterally.
Abdul Wahid attributed this to:
The most sensitive time in which the eastern Mediterranean is witnessing tension and a race for wealth.
Stopping the ambitions of any foreign country, and preserving Egypt's rights to prospecting within its regional borders, in accordance with international law.
The region is promising huge quantities of gas reserves in the world, of which only 10% has been exploited, in addition to indications confirming the existence of gas wells that fulfill Egypt's part of its ambitions.
Allowing international companies to legally carry out maritime activities without reservations or fears.
Taking the decision unilaterally is due to the deterioration of the situation in Libya, and the prolonged political division, which threatens Egyptian interests.
The demarcation is an extension of the land borders in the northwest up to the territorial borders of Egypt, without dealing with the economic borders, and it is a fair determination according to international law.
What is the next step after the demarcation decision, and will it witness international recognition?
Major General Abdel Wahed explains that, after addressing the United Nations to obtain international legitimacy for the demarcation, it is expected that excavations will be carried out completely freely within the regional borders.
He explained that Egypt has a long-term strategy that may reach 2040 to achieve goals, most of which are economic related to energy.
He pointed to the encouragement of international companies for new explorations to achieve Egypt's goals of drilling 45 wells in the next three years, most of which are in the Mediterranean.
Abdel Wahed believes that the decision will obtain international legitimacy, as it represents an extension of the land lines between Egypt and Libya, and is in accordance with international law.
incomplete step
Slightly agreeing with the previous argument, Egyptian academic and political analyst Mohamed Al-Zawawi believes that the demarcation may have come as an attempt to legitimize the operations of foreign companies in Egypt's exclusive economic zones, which cannot move without legal demarcation of borders.
However, Al-Zawawi described the demarcation announcement as a "incomplete step" as it is one-sided, and the fact that international laws stipulate that two or more countries participate in the border demarcation process.
Al-Zawawi added that the process remains subject to appeal at any time, especially from countries that are not signatories to the International Law of the Sea, citing Turkey's failure to recognize the entire mechanism of the law for border demarcation, and its demand to amend it, and its failure to recognize the demarcation processes between Egypt, Cyprus, Egypt and Greece so far.
What is its relationship to the thorny issues of demarcation in the eastern Mediterranean?
Commenting on this, the expert in the oil and gas industry and maritime transport, Ibrahim Fahmy, explains that the file of demarcating the maritime borders of Egypt takes its importance from the promising future of gas reserves in the economic maritime zones located in deep waters between the neighboring countries, whether contiguous, opposite or neighboring (Libya and Palestine). Turkey, Cyprus, Greece and Israel), which could represent an alternative tributary of Russian gas to Europe.
Fahmy added that the issue of demarcation in the eastern Mediterranean is thorny and complex for various reasons in which economic interests, geopolitical influence, and neighborhood relations overlap, noting that Egypt lies between two clear axes: the first is represented by Israel, Cyprus, and Greece, and has clear goals to seize the wrong demarcation of the maritime borders, which wastes the rights of Egypt, Libya, and Turkey.
The second, Turkey and Libya, which returned to Egypt an estimated 15,000 square kilometers of marine area, which Egypt was to leave in favor of Greece, in a way that is not consistent with the country’s supreme interest, he said.
Fahmy added that this space would have been used by the first axis to pass a marine pipeline that would reach the gas directly to the European markets, without the need to liquefy it, which raises the cost and time several times.
With regard to the unilateral demarcation of the western maritime borders of Egypt, Fahmy says that his goal is an unfair maritime basis for Libya, and to circumvent the maritime border demarcation agreement between Turkey and Libya, which is deposited with the United Nations by both parties.
The speaker believes that the legitimate rights of Palestine and Northern Cyprus in the Mediterranean gas, if the two countries become independent, will make the border demarcations between all the countries of the basin indefinite and subject to their cancellation by international arbitration, and therefore each country must defend its supreme interests and not the interest of other countries or countries.
What are Egypt's messages to the neighboring countries of the eastern Mediterranean?
Expert Abdel Wahed stresses that his country seeks to preserve its rights to the economy and energy, and at the same time it does not overlook the geopolitical aspects within the scope of the region, or the speed of events in recent years, stressing that Egypt was keen, while achieving its plans and goals in the energy file, not to infringe On the borders of the countries bordering the eastern Mediterranean or others.
He explains this by saying: This is evident through the demarcation of the maritime borders with Cyprus in 2013, with Saudi Arabia in 2016, and with Greece in 2020, the signing of an agreement with Israel in 2018 to export natural gas to Egypt, then liquefy it and re-export it to Europe, and the signing last summer of a tripartite agreement. With Israel and the European Union to export Israeli gas after it was liquefied in Egypt to Europe, which is desperately hungry for alternatives to Russian gas, and to intensify cooperation with Cyprus and Greece as gateways for gas to Europe, and to launch with countries in the region the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum, which is a regional energy market through which joint cooperation can be possible.
On the other hand, Al-Zawawi adds that Cairo is in dire need of foreign exchange at that stage, which is witnessing an unprecedented crisis as a result of foreign debts and their accrued interest.
He continues that the demarcation reflects Egypt's desire to try to accelerate the work of foreign energy companies to start exploration, in addition to moving forward alongside Greece, Cyprus and Israel, without reaching a common formula of understanding with the Libyan national government or Turkey, according to him.
Does it affect the Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement?
Major General Abdel Wahed excludes this, explaining that the two countries have come a long way in the process of imminent rapprochement, and even if some thorny and outstanding issues remain, they will be bypassed and postponed.
On the Libyan file, Major General Al-Masry stated that his country is keen on a political solution and supporting Libya's partners to reach electoral benefits, impose stability and expel mercenaries, especially since stability in Libya reflects positively on the situation in Egypt.
As for Al-Zawawi, he believes that this occasion could have represented an unprecedented opportunity in cooperation, improving relations and achieving a common interest, especially since the Turkish demarcation gives Egypt more nautical miles within its exclusive economic zone, he said.