Chinanews.com, December 8th, within two days, three military bases in Russia were attacked by drones, two of which may be the deepest attacks Russia has ever encountered.

　　Since the situation in Russia and Ukraine has deteriorated, from Kursk Oblast near the Russian-Ukrainian border to Ryazan Oblast near the capital Moscow, Russia has been attacked by drones from time to time.

　　How can Russia frequently neglect to let the other party succeed?

Why did Ukraine go deep into the Russian hinterland for air strikes?

Where will these attacks lead the situation?

How much did Russia lose?

　　The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that Ukraine dispatched drones to attack military airports in the Saratov and Ryazan regions of Russia on the 5th, killing 3 people and injuring 4 others.

　　These two military airports are extraordinary. They are the core air force bases of the Russian army, where the Tu-160 and Tu-95 strategic bombers of the Russian Air Force are deployed.

There are 14 missiles placed in front of a Russian Tu-95MS bomber.

Image source: Russian Ministry of Defense

　　The Tu-95 strategic bomber is a long-range bomber, which can complete ultra-long-range strikes on the entire territory of Ukraine without flying into Ukraine's airspace.

Recently, in order to destroy the power system of the entire territory of Ukraine, the Tu-95 bomber has undertaken the main task of the Russian army's air strikes on Ukraine, and has therefore become a "thorn in the eyes" of Ukraine.

　　Ukrainian officials say Engels airport in Saratov region has been a launching pad for Russian bombers involved in missile strikes targeting Ukraine's energy grid.

　　At the Engel base, a drone flew directly over the base, launched a suicide attack on the ground, and exploded quickly.

Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs Grachenko posted on social media, "A certain drone damaged two Tu-95s at Engels Airport."

　　The Diagilevo military base in Ryazan Prefecture exploded suddenly due to a drone attack, detonating a fuel tanker, causing damage to a Tu-22 "Backfire" bomber.

　　Kursk Airport, the third military base in Russia that was attacked on the 6th, has always been a base for Russian fighter jets, although it is considered to be of less strategic importance.

How did Ukraine do it?

　　Ukrainian media said that the Diagilevo military base that was attacked this time is more than 500 kilometers away from the Russian-Ukrainian border and only 160 kilometers away from the Russian capital Moscow.

Such a deep attack has shocked the world and raised questions from all sides: How did such a surprise attack happen?

　　The New York Times quoted a senior Ukrainian official as saying that the drones involved in the 5th attack were launched from within Ukraine, and at least one attack was carried out with the help of special forces close to (Russian) bases.

Data map: A Ukrainian military drone operator.

　　The U.S. military website "The Drive" sorted out the weapons that may have launched the attack. Since the Diaghilev military base in Ryazan State is far away from Ukraine, it may have been attacked by a Soviet Tu-141 jet drone, as the Russian Ministry of Defense said. attack.

　　This kind of old-fashioned reconnaissance aircraft with a range of more than 1,000 kilometers can carry bombs and other weapons after modification, and can carry out attacks in theory.

　　But attacks in other places may have come about in other ways.

A modified commercial UAV, the TB2 UAV produced in Turkey, and even a long-range attack UAV rumored to be developed by Ukraine are also included as possible.

　　The "The Drive" website believes that Ukraine has previously relied on suicide drones or short-range ballistic missiles with limited range, and can only launch attacks on Crimea or Russian military bases near the Russian-Ukrainian border.

But if you want to raid more distant targets, you need to rely on small infiltration forces.

　　There is also a view that Ukraine cannot penetrate the Russian air defense system alone to complete such a long-distance drone air strike, and there should be experts behind it.

　　The "Moscow Komsomolets" stated that these operations were aided by real-time satellite information, so they were able to strike when the plane was refueling and fully loaded with ammunition to trigger an explosion.

What did Russia miss?

　　Whether Ukraine acted alone or with assistance, the negligence of Russian air defense systems and intelligence services in responding to the attack cannot be ignored.

On June 18, 2022, Ukrainian soldiers opened fire on Russian positions using M777 howitzers provided by the United States.

　　Some analysts said that Ukraine or NATO used electronic warfare to suppress the Russian military’s radar. The possible laxity of the Russian military, or the lack of air defense forces in the rear due to the response to front-line attacks, all exposed to a certain extent that Russia’s air defense forces may have loopholes.

　　The "Moscow Komsomolets" quoted former Russian military chief Sergei Khatilev as analyzing that the attack may have been launched by sabotage and reconnaissance teams operating on Russian territory or adjacent territories.

　　The fact that Russian maps have been digitized has not attracted the attention of the Russian military and has strengthened its response.

Some foreign media quoted sources from the Ukrainian president's office as saying that British intelligence services may have participated in the attack on the Russian military's long-range aviation facility.

　　Alexei Leonkov, a Russian military expert and editor of the "Arsenal of the Motherland" magazine, said that without the help of the Anglo-Saxons, the Ukrainian armed forces could not launch such an attack. "The accuracy of the route depends on the accuracy of the coordinates. They (the Anglo-Saxons) digitized the map of Russia a long time ago."

What does Ukraine want to do?

　　To carry out such a deep strike deep into the heart of Russia, what else does Ukraine want to do besides targeting the strategic bombers at Russia's core base?

Data map: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

　　The "New York Times" stated that the two consecutive days of drone strikes were considered by the outside world to be another sign of Kyiv's determination to bring artillery fire closer to Moscow.

　　U.S. media analyzed that Ukraine’s attacks in Russia have changed the geographical location of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, revealed the loopholes in Moscow’s air defense system, and indicated that Ukraine is determined to make Russia pay a heavier price for the crisis.

　　According to the "South China Morning Post" report, senior Western officials said that the attack on the airport in the heart of Russia will cause a strong psychological blow, which means that Moscow will have to think more carefully about how to ensure the safety of its long-range bombers.

Could the Russia-Ukraine situation escalate?

　　However, the Russian mainland was attacked by Ukrainian drones, which may not be the "script" expected by the West.

　　Many of Ukraine's Western allies have been trying to avoid escalation and have been refusing to supply Kyiv with weapons capable of striking targets on Russian soil.

　　U.S. State Department spokesman Price said on the 6th that the United States does not encourage Ukraine to attack Russian targets outside its borders.

"We did not allow Ukraine to strike across the border."

　　The United States even secretly modified the weapons that aid Ukraine to prevent the Ukrainian military from launching missiles into Russian territory.

Data map: US President Biden.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Chen Mengtong

　　On the other hand, Russia's massive attack on Ukraine continues.

Following the drone attack, the Russian Ministry of Defense said it continued to launch large-scale strikes against Ukraine's infrastructure, with defense complexes, communications centers, energy and military units designated as targets.

　　The Russian "Independent" reported that the Russian Federation's policy on nuclear deterrence lists the conditions for deciding to use nuclear weapons, one of which is "the enemy's influence on key countries or military installations of the Russian Federation leading to the interruption of nuclear force response."

　　According to the Russian Interfax news agency, Tu-160 and Tu-95 are the air components of Russia's "nuclear trinity", which can use nuclear and conventional weapons to destroy important targets behind the enemy.

Therefore, Russian media quoted experts as saying that strikes against Russian strategic bomber bases can be regarded as a condition for nuclear strikes.

The Russia-Ukraine situation may further escalate.

　　The cold winter has arrived, but the situation in Russia and Ukraine has been unable to cool down for a long time, and the peace negotiations are indefinite.

How to spend this winter is a difficult problem for any party.

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