• Next weekend, LR members will vote to designate the new boss of the right.

  • Eric Ciotti, who came first in the first round this weekend with 42.73% of the vote, faces Bruno Retailleau, who obtained 34.45% of the vote.

  • If the deputy from Nice has long been a favorite, the ballot could well be tighter than expected.

“Everyone is happy, but no one is very happy”.

This sentence from a Les Républicains deputy sums up the state of mind of the two finalists for the presidency of the party.

Sunday, Eric Ciotti came first in the first round by collecting 42.73% of the vote, ahead of Bruno Retailleau, at 34.45%.

Seven points therefore separate the boss of the LR senators from the deputy of the Alpes-Maritimes, big favorite in the ballot, whom some dreamed of seeing the match bend on Sunday.

There will therefore be a second round, which promises to be much more undecided than expected, next weekend.

We tell you why.



An ideological proximity

Throughout the campaign, Eric Ciotti and Bruno Retailleau never stopped highlighting their differences in plans for the future of the country and the movement.

A "shock therapy" for the deputy of Nice, "a project of rupture" for the senator of Vendée.

But in reality, the two men defend a more or less similar line: very firm on security and immigration, liberal on the economic level.

“Despite a few nuances, there is a great closeness between them.

Overall, these two are on the same side of our internal chessboard, ”recognizes Philippe Gosselin, LR deputy for the Channel and support of the senator.

But this line well to the right, which had allowed Eric Ciotti to create the surprise last year in the first round of the primary, is this time defended by someone other than him.

Eric Ciotti facing the “glass ceiling”

With more than 42% of the votes, Eric Ciotti has a comfortable lead.

But in the entourage of his competitor, we take pleasure in recalling his defeat in the second round of the primary from the right.

“At the time, he was in the lead in the first round with 28,000 votes.

And you know how much it is this Sunday?

28,000 votes.

They are surely the same voters ”, ironically an executive of the Retailleau campaign.

“He doesn't have much voice reserve and will still come up against the glass ceiling,” he hopes.

If the ideological differences are not, as we have said, enormous, the ballot could then be played on the personality of the candidates.

Will the deputy from Nice, who has muffled his speech in recent months, be less "frightening" for the more moderate electorate?

"There is no glass ceiling, because it is not at all the same issue", sweeps Eric Pauget, his spokesperson.

“Last year, we nominated a presidential candidate.

There, he is the president of LR, and Ciotti is the one who prints the most in society ”.

The uncertainty of the Pradié electorate

The match promises to be all the more uncertain as the carryover of Aurélien Pradié's votes (22.29%) is difficult to predict.

The deputy of Lot, self-proclaimed candidate for "renewal", indicated that he would not give any voting instructions.

But among the two finalists, we are already trying to recover our electorate.

““Retailleau campaigned on the break, particularly vis-à-vis Nicolas Sarkozy, and on the need to rebuild the party.

We are not very far from the renewal that Pradié wants, ”assures the senator's team.

Xavier Bertrand, Pradié's support in the first round, indicated that he would also vote for the senator from Vendée.

“22% of our members wanted to highlight youth and renewal.

I believe that Ciotti can embody this modern right more than the traditional conservatism of Retailleau”, replies Eric Pauget.

The PNF's preliminary investigation

There remains an unknown in the equation.

The National Financial Prosecutor's Office (PNF) opened a preliminary investigation on November 22 after the publication of articles according to which the ex-wife of, would have cumulated.

The revelations, denied by the person concerned, could awaken the specter of the Fillon business, which still haunts the right.

With what impact on the ballot?

“I had various returns in my circo.

It could have weakened it a little, but it can also close ranks, it's hard to say, ”sweeps a pro-Retailleau deputy.

The name of the future boss of the right will be known next Sunday.

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  • Bruno Retailleau

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