Things will not be easy for him
Trump is at his weakest politically in many years
De Santis, Trump's main rival.
A.F.B
Trump's popularity is declining among many of his supporters. Getty Images
Trump may not be able to win the support of the divided opposition in the 2024 round
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Former US President Donald Trump decided that he would run for the US presidency a second time, and announced a few days ago that he was trying to become the second after former President Grover Cleveland to be elected twice, but not consecutively.
Trump's move comes at a time when his political situation has reached its weakest point since his 2015-2016 presidential campaign.
But he remains a force to be reckoned with in Republican circles, and the news that the Justice Department has hired a special counsel to oversee investigations into Trump only added to the crowd about Trump's influence among Republicans.
Regardless, it is clear that his authority within the party has weakened following the 2022 midterm congressional elections.
Media indifference
The easiest way to show that Trump's standing is not what it used to be, is to look at the reaction to his announcement of his candidacy for the 2024 presidential elections. Many Republican elected officials, and conservative figures in the media, did not seem to care much.
As a result of Trump's announcement of his candidacy for the 2024 presidency, he was granted that support by a few elected officials in Congress.
This is reminiscent of his first nomination in 2015-2016, when Trump could not muster much support from members of Congress.
The difference this time, of course, is that Trump is the former leader of the party, as most Republican members of Congress endorsed him in 2020 instead of being a political newbie as he was seven years ago.
But many members of Congress now appear to support Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and some support Trump as well.
This is important because it means that the support of party officials has historically been linked to the success of the presidential primaries.
It should be noted here that the lack of support did not stop Trump in 2016, and it will not stop him this time either.
first attempt
Trump's first attempt appears to have been an aberration.
He was facing more than a dozen competitors, among whom the support of the conservative political class was distributed.
This is particularly a problem in Republican primaries, which tend to be winner-takes-all or most, unlike Democratic primaries, which give delegates proportionate rights.
Trump needed less than half the Republican Party vote to gather a lot of delegates quickly in 2016.
And Trump may not be able to win the support of the same divided opposition in the 2024 cycle. So far, the obvious challenger to Trump is only De Santes.
The governor of Florida has emerged as perhaps the most important development in the Republican field for 2024. Trump is still ahead in a number of US polls, but De Santis is doing better in early polls than any other candidate, other than Trump, during the 2016 primary.
De Santis has been beating Trump in Florida in almost every poll.
And during a poll conducted by CNN during the 2022 midterm congressional elections, more Republicans wanted de Santos to run for the 2024 elections than those who supported Trump.
Of course, De Santis' advantages in Florida can be seen for several reasons, in addition to the fact that the state has plenty of Republican delegates, who could probably approach him in a "winner-takes-all" fashion.
The two men are equal in Florida
The first of these is that Florida is Trump's home as well, and it is the only place where the two men are equal, when it comes to getting to know each other.
De Santis' progress is a sign that when Republicans around the country get to know him, they will turn to him (and De Santis will be more popular than Trump nationwide among Republicans who know both men).
The second reason is that Trump won Florida in the 2016 primary against Florida-born Congressman Marco Rubio.
Arguably, the fact that De Santis is now ahead of Trump in Florida in the polls may be an indication that Trump is in a weaker position than he was in 2016. But Trump's problems are bigger than just party officials and the polls.
Trump was able to defy conventional wisdom in 2016 because he received so much media attention.
And he managed to beat the competitors.
Things will not be easy
But this time, things will not be easy.
And I mentioned earlier that De Santis previously showed great skill in attracting media attention when he appeared on “Fox News” station, and if Trump can win the primaries, he must win the general election.
Which will not be easy, and this is what the 2022 congressional midterm elections showed.
Last week, I noted that Trump's presence was one of the main reasons the Democrats had such an impressive run in the midterm elections.
By appearing frequently in the media and behaving like a president still in power parallel to the incumbent, Trump helped negate what was usually considered a significant advantage for the opposition party in the midterm congressional elections with an unpopular president in the White House.
Trump would have been of great use to his party had he been popular.
And during any presidential election in which Trump's name is already on the ballot paper, you can imagine that his unpopularity will be a more negative factor in his election.
We know now from history that it will not be easy for Trump to win.
While the presidents in power (such as President Joe Biden) are in a passive position during the midterm congressional elections, they benefit from being in power.
The percentage of presidents in power being elected exceeds 60% when they nominate themselves for another electoral term.
The bottom line is that Trump faces a tough contest in 2024, whether it be in the Republican primaries or the general election.
Certainly he could win a second term, but the odds now seem against him.
Harry Anton is an American journalist
Cancellation of a judicial decision to appoint an expert to review documents seized at Trump's home
On Thursday, a US appeals court overturned a previous judicial decision stipulating the appointment of an independent expert to review documents seized by federal police at Donald Trump's home in Florida, which constitutes a new setback for the former president.
Federal appeals court judges in Atlanta unanimously overturned a Florida judge's order appointing the expert, which had temporarily prevented federal investigators from using the documents in their criminal investigation.
On August 8, the FBI raided Donald Trump's residence in Florida, and seized boxes containing thousands of confidential documents that the former Republican president did not return when he left the White House despite repeated requests.
Some of these documents are classified under defense secrecy.
Federal investigators suspect that the former president violated US espionage law, which strictly regulates the possession of classified documents.
Donald Trump confirmed that these documents were declassified.
And the Court of Appeals ruled Thursday that the search and seizure of documents on the eighth of August was not illegal, and that the judge in the Florida court does not have the power to limit the access to those documents by the Ministry of Justice, which is leading the investigation.
If Trump can win the primaries, he has to win the general elections, which will not be easy, and this is what the 2022 congressional midterm elections showed.
Trump faces a tough contest in 2024, be it in the Republican primaries or the general election. Certainly he could win a second term, but the odds now seem against him.
De Santis' progress is a sign that when Republicans across the country get to know him, they will turn to him.
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