Xi and Modi met more than any other two leaders, but their relationship was cool

Resolving the Sino-Indian border dispute faces many obstacles

  • Shi and Modi .. a volatile relationship.

    archival

  • India is keeping pace with China in developing military infrastructure in the disputed region.

    For "Times of India".

    archival

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On November 15, Chinese President Xi Jinping met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a few minutes at a gala dinner during the G20 summit.

The meeting was a public break of the stalemate, after three years without any high-level contacts between the two sides.

The Indian political researcher at the Griffith Asia Institute at Australian Griffith University, Dr. Atul Kumar, says in a report published by the American magazine "National Interest", that although Xi and Modi did not participate in any meeting on the sidelines of the G-20 summit, the brief conversation between them took place. He gave the impression that intense bilateral negotiations were taking place behind the scenes to resolve the military stalemate between India and China.

Relations between India and China have witnessed severe suffering during the past three years, as the Indian armed forces and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army have been in a state of confrontation in the Ladakh region since April 2020. The situation is still unstable, as the two sides are rapidly developing their military infrastructure at the Line of Actual Control, However, China and India are negotiating at the same time, at the military and diplomatic levels, to reduce hostilities and resolve the confrontation peacefully.

Capacity development with negotiations

Hence, it can be said that the development of internal military capabilities goes hand in hand with bilateral negotiations in parallel tracks.

The conversation between Xi and Modi during the G20 summit is evidence of this intensive process, which aims to reduce hostility and develop a new modus operandi between the two countries.

Kumar says that Modi met Xi 18 times between 2014 and 2019, which is the largest number of meetings by any Indian leader in the bilateral history of the two countries, and that Modi went to China five times to attend various summits and concluded agreements that facilitated trade and political relations.

However, these interactions had significance in the long run, as in 2020, the Chinese People's Liberation Forces occupied seven disputed areas on the Indian side of the Line of Actual Control.

The occupation of the Chinese People's Liberation Army resulted in several bilateral agreements for peace and quiet on the border, but they have become meaningless.

Modi thus faced harsh domestic criticism for meeting with Xi occasionally, while not understanding his true intentions.

Since then, Xi and Modi have avoided meeting each other in public. The two met during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Uzbekistan, but ignored each other in public.

However, there are indications that they had a meeting behind the scenes.

The incursion by the Chinese People's Liberation Army into the Line of Actual Control area severely damaged Sino-Indian relations, and led to the "Galwan Valley" clash in June 2020 and India's counter-deployment operations in the Kaliyash mountain region.

The two countries came close to fighting an actual war in August 2020, however, calm prevailed, and bilateral negotiations through diplomatic and military channels prevented the forces from clashing.

Partial disengagement

So far, China and India have held 16 meetings to discuss the situation of confrontation, and there is a possibility of holding another meeting.

The negotiations resulted in a partial disengagement of the forces of the two sides from five points of confrontation, with the withdrawal of the Chinese and Indian forces at an equal distance to provide a specific buffer zone, and then the line of actual control turned into a “buffer zone belt”, which explicitly prohibits the armies of the two countries from sending patrols to these specific areas. However, continued non-human observation is expected.

It seems that these buffer zones are an appropriate arrangement to provide distance between the Chinese and Indian forces, and will provide sufficient time to warn against any incursions, and India is still considered to benefit less, because most of the buffer zones are located in the territory of the Line of Actual Control, which it considers to belong to it.

In any case, if the Indian forces cannot enter these areas, the Chinese forces also cannot enter them, and there is an urgent need for a negotiated modus operandi, to facilitate the entry of local herdsmen to their traditional pastures located in these buffer areas, and to ban their entry would be detrimental of their financial condition.

space

Kumar believes that the buffer zones of the Line of Actual Control provided space between the Chinese and Indian forces.

However, both sides' rapid border infrastructure projects raise the risk of future war, China has already achieved its goal of preventing Indian forces from developing infrastructure in disputed areas, and the Chinese People's Liberation Army wants to consolidate its gains and negotiate from a position of strength.

Here, China prefers to achieve its goal under the roof of war, and it has consciously avoided reaching the edge with India, yet its forces or deployments have not diminished.

Despite the partial disengagement, forces are still deployed near all points of conflict, and over the past month the Chinese People's Liberation Army has introduced three additional infantry brigades to the eastern sector of the Line of Actual Control, to maintain pressure on India throughout the winter.

The Chinese forces have always enjoyed better communication and logistical facilities on the plateau, and their superiority in infrastructure has enhanced their confidence regarding engagement with Indian forces anywhere on the Line of Actual Control, but this feeling will gradually recede as India keeps pace with Chinese infrastructure developments, as the experience of the Indian army has led Extensive high-flying, advanced weaponry, and periodic military exercises with the United States and its allies have further enhanced India's confidence in its capabilities, and thus the military balance on the Line of Actual Control has become difficult to predict.

This motivated diplomats on both sides to search for peaceful options.

The process of breaking the impasse between Xi and Modi at the G-20 summit showed that there are frantic diplomatic efforts taking place behind the scenes, yet no quick solution to the situation of confrontation can be expected, as the two countries are simultaneously engaged in confrontation and negotiations.

 Modi met Xi 18 times between 2014 and 2019, the most of any Indian leader in the two countries' bilateral history.

The incursion by the Chinese People's Liberation Army into the Line of Actual Control severely damaged Sino-Indian relations, and led to the "Galwan Valley" clash in June 2020, and to India's counter-deployment operations in the Kaliyash mountain region.

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