A major economic indicator that indicates business confidence in the manufacturing industry in the United States was released, and in November, it fell below 50, the dividing line between boom and recession, for the first time in two and a half years.

On the 1st, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), which surveys the manufacturing industry across the United States, announced the Business Confidence Index based on a survey of corporate purchasing managers.



That puts the index just 49 points last month, down 1.2 points from the previous month.



It is the first time in two and a half years since May 2020, when the spread of the new coronavirus infection was spreading, that it has fallen below 50, which is the dividing line between boom and recession, and the slowdown in the global economy and the rise in US interest rates are cooling the economy. is the shape shown.



On the other hand, the price index of personal consumption expenditure in October released by the US Department of Commerce on this day increased by 6% compared to the same month of the previous year.



Excluding volatile energy and food, the index rose 5%.



Both consumer spending growth rates were slightly lower than in the previous month, but remained high.



In a speech on the 30th, Chairman Powell of the FRB = Federal Reserve Board, which is the central bank of the United States, suggested that the rate hike would be reduced at the meeting this month at the earliest. It emphasizes the idea of ​​continuing tightening.



The focus will be on how the Fed will present its outlook for future interest rate levels at its monetary policy meeting, which will be held for two days from the 13th of this month.

Yen appreciation in NY foreign exchange market

In the foreign exchange market in New York on the 1st, there was a movement to sell the dollar and buy the yen due to the view that the US economy would slow down, and the yen exchange rate temporarily rose to the lower 135 yen level to the dollar.



On this day, a representative economic indicator that shows the business confidence of the manufacturing industry in the United States was announced, and in November, it fell below 50, which marks the dividing line between boom and recession, for the first time in two and a half years.



This was lower than the market expected, and long-term interest rates in the United States fell as there was a growing view that the economy would slow down further and that the FRB would slow down the pace of its significant interest rate hikes.



As a result, there was a movement to sell the dollar and buy the yen, with the interest rate differential between Japan and the United States shrinking.



A market insider said, "Following Chairman Powell's remarks on the 30th, there is a growing awareness of the slowdown in the pace of interest rate hikes. However, depending on the content of the employment statistics to be announced on the 2nd, the yen may weaken again. There is a possibility of touching,” he said.