Finland's and Sweden's application for membership had barely been submitted to NATO when Turkey was already setting its conditions.
"These countries do not have a clear and transparent position against terrorist organizations", attacked the Turkish president in May 2022, just hours after the request was submitted.
In Recep Tayyip Erdogan's crosshairs, the approximately 100,000 Kurdish refugees hosted by Sweden, some linked to groups classified as "terrorist organizations" by Turkey, such as the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the People's Protection (YPG).
The Turkish president thus began by demanding that Sweden and Finland toughen their anti-terrorism legislation and lift the arms embargo they had imposed on Turkey since 2019, in retaliation for an offensive launched by the country. against the Kurdish YPG group, while fighting the Islamic State organization in northern Syria.
But these first concessions were not enough: after the signing of a memorandum of understanding in June, in which Finland and Sweden accepted the main lines of Turkish demands, Ankara outbid.
A long list of "terrorists" has been transmitted to the two Scandinavian countries, in order to demand the extradition of Kurdish refugees who have been enjoying asylum in Sweden and Finland for years, even decades.
>> To read also: "NATO: who are the 'terrorists' claimed by Turkey from Finland and Sweden?"
Between Turkish blackmail and Russian threat
The demands then multiplied: the resignation of a Swedish minister who participated in a pro-PKK party ten years ago was demanded by Turkey.
The Swedish ambassador was also summoned after a television program mocked Erdogan.
Last week, the blackmail went up a notch.
Violating Swedish standards for respecting freedom of expression, Turkey has asked the country to investigate a rally organized in Stockholm by a group deemed close to the PKK, during which anti-Erdogan slogans were said to have been uttered .
Ankara went so far as to require participants to be identified.
Growing demands, which put Sweden in a delicate situation.
Threatened by its large Russian neighbour, the small kingdom of ten million inhabitants must try to wink at Turkey in order to join NATO.
In fact, the agreement of the thirty members of the Atlantic Alliance is needed to integrate a new member and, for the moment, only Turkey is blocking it.
Because if Hungary has not given the green light either, its Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, has promised that this will be the case at the beginning of 2023.
Sweden must therefore strive to please Ankara without contradicting its democratic values and its laws.
A balancing act.
Stockholm thus agreed in August to deliver one of the men appearing on the "terrorist" list, while ensuring that the extradition fell under an ordinary legal procedure, and was in no way linked to blackmail exercised by Turkey.
"Self-destructive behavior"
But criticism is raining down on the government, which is accused of bending over backwards to please President Erdogan.
"Kristersson must stop humiliating himself in the face of Turkey", wrote the editorialist Alex Schulman in the Swedish daily Dagens Nyheter at the beginning of November, when the newly elected Prime Minister had just devoted his first State visit outside the EU to the Turkey.
"Suddenly, selling arms to Turkey no longer poses a problem for us, denounces the journalist. We no longer have any difficulty in considering as such the groups labeled 'terrorists' by Turkey... but it was worth it! Kristersson received a long hug from Erdogan, who said 'Welcome to NATO, my friend!'"
A sarcastic summary, since the Swedish Prime Minister's trip ended in failure: Ulf Kristersson returned to Sweden without any promise of a Turkish agreement.
“Are we really going to continue with this self-destructive behavior?”, protests the editorialist in his article.
"At some point, shouldn't our government be asked to defend our country and our values?"
An electoral strategy?
His anger is all the more understandable since, despite Sweden's efforts, it is possible that Turkey's blockade will last several months.
"Turkey has many reasons to brandish the veto card", explains Aras Lindh, an analyst at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, who underlines Turkey's unprecedented influence over Sweden in an article published in November.
“Suddenly the country finds itself in a favorable negotiating position.”
This blackmail also allows Recep Tayyip Erdogan to gain points for the presidential election, scheduled in Turkey next June.
“Turkey is badly managed economically, continues Aras Lindh. Blocking Sweden’s entry into NATO allows Erdogan to shift the debate, by centering it in particular on the laxity of European countries which leave terrorists free. presents himself as a strong leader, who is not afraid to stand up to them."
An analysis shared by Aron Lund, Middle East specialist at the Swedish Defense Research Agency (FOI): "Erdogan portrays himself as such a strong and important leader that the United States, Russia and many countries Europeans have to come to terms with him. The Secretary General of NATO even went to Turkey [early November, editor's note] to beg Erdogan to allow Sweden to join NATO. It's very good for his communication. "
Progress in the negotiations
But Turkey has a lot to gain by approving the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO, notes Aron Lund.
"Militarily, it would be important for Turkey to have Sweden and Finland in NATO, because their entry would considerably lengthen the land border between Russia and NATO. [This entry] would shift the focal point of this border, and the ensuing NATO-Russia tensions, much, much further north, away from Turkey."
According to the specialist, Erdogan will therefore undoubtedly end up agreeing to Sweden's entry into NATO "in the run-up to the June elections, or just after they have taken place", provided that Sweden "seeks to keep Erdogan in a good mood".
The Swedish concessions also seem to be starting to pay off: the Swedish Foreign Minister thus affirmed on Wednesday that "progress" had been made in his negotiations with Turkey.
"We had a positive meeting yesterday, and I felt that there was progress, he welcomed before going to a NATO meeting. We are moving forward."
A statement shared by Turkish diplomacy, which congratulated the "goodwill" of the Swedish government, adding however to expect more... "concrete measures".
This article has been translated and adapted from its original English version by Lou Roméo.
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