Between diplomacy and nuclear missiles... How will Russia respond if Washington ignores its "red lines" in Ukraine?

Moscow - In

a firm and decisive tone, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov came out to confirm that his country is waiting for a quick American response to its security proposals to limit the military influence of NATO in the former Soviet republics, led by Ukraine.

Ryabkov was not satisfied with that, but also threatened to deploy medium and short-range missiles in Europe, stressing that Moscow hopes that Washington has understood the need for an urgent response to proposals for security guarantees.

Although Ryabkov's statements reflect Russia's willingness to take a decisive stance in the event that the US administration ignores Russian warnings about NATO's expansion to the east, Washington is not moving at the same pace with Russia's haste by asserting that some Russian proposals are "unacceptable."

The United States and other Western countries have warned Russia that it would face dire consequences - including harsh economic sanctions - if it attacked Ukraine.

This called for "disappointment" expressed by the Russian Foreign Ministry, saying that the West is dealing with security guarantees as if Moscow had raised the "interest rate" for these proposals.

Ukraine accuses its neighbor Russia of massing up to 100,000 soldiers near its borders in preparation for attacking it by the end of next January, and there have been frequent Western statements about unusual Russian military build-up on the border with Ukraine.

However, Russia denied that it was planning to invade Ukraine, and described the reports of a possible invasion of Ukraine as false propaganda, considering the possibility of Kyiv joining NATO as crossing Russia's "red lines."

Since 2014, the Donbass region (eastern Ukraine) has been witnessing a military conflict between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian separatists.

Between diplomacy and confrontation

And between this and that, Lithuania, the former Soviet republic and current member of NATO, enters the crisis line. Its Defense Minister, Arvydas Anoushuskas, announces that his country is ready to support Ukraine by all means, including the provision of lethal weapons, explaining that "diplomacy succeeds when the victim has all the means to defend for its security and guarantee of sovereignty.

In parallel, the European Union suggested discussing Russia's proposals regarding security guarantees, within the existing formulas between the two sides.

The official representative of foreign policy in the Union, Peter Stano, said that the Helsinki Final Document and the Paris Charter proposed basic principles for building European security, and to this end a number of confidence-building mechanisms were developed, such as the Council of Russia and NATO, as well as the progress of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe mechanisms that remain essential in any Interact with Russia.

In an attempt to return the situation to square one, the European official stressed that "Russia must understand and respect the position of the European Union regarding the right of every sovereign country to freely choose its foreign policy and alliances."

Against the backdrop of silence - which Russia believes has been prolonged on the part of the United States - the question arises: How will Moscow respond if Washington refuses to discuss its security proposals?

Russian response

Igor Korotchenko, editor-in-chief of the Russian National Defense magazine, stressed that the West is delaying its response because it does not want any negotiations and does not want to give any security guarantees.

According to Korotchenko, the answer in this case is clear, Russia will respond with counter threats to the threats that will arise from the United States and NATO, and accordingly it will create the same problems for the security of America and NATO member states that they are trying to cause to Moscow.

In his answer, the Russian expert uses the phrase "action generates reaction." Hence, Russia's policy on this issue is very clearly defined, as it had previously warned that it would respond militarily to any changes in the security balance.

In his opinion, this means - from a tactical point of view - deploying and directing hypersonic missile systems against interceptor missile launch sites and foreign military bases that may appear in the post-Soviet space.

He also indicates that Moscow will rebuild its approach to the issues of confrontation and balance of power, in a way that neutralizes all potential threats, recalling a phrase that President Vladimir Putin said earlier, that in the event of war, the first strike will be carried out on decision-making centers.

This means that if the "aggression against Russia" takes place, the first blow will be directed at the United States, and then at NATO forces in Europe.

In purely military and political terms, Kurchenko believes that the Kremlin will respond to attempts to establish NATO bases on Ukrainian soil by creating a common security space with the Luhansk and Donetsk republics, and if necessary, it will recognize them as two independent entities in international law.

He concluded his speech by stressing that Moscow has more than one opportunity to respond, and if the negotiation process fails or is ignored, NATO will have to bear the consequences, which "will fall on its shoulders and cause it a headache."

Belarus versus Poland

As for the military expert, Victor Barantsev, he pointed out that the United States is trying to evade as much as possible from providing security guarantees to Russia, because it does not intend to deploy its nuclear weapons in Germany only, but also in Poland.

In his opinion, if Washington does not abandon this matter, Moscow will consider this as preparation for a nuclear war against it, in which case Russian nuclear missiles may appear in Belarus.

He went on to say that in addition to deploying nuclear missiles in Belarus, Russia will increase its number on its western borders, including the Kaliningrad region. the sound.

He concluded that by doing so, all NATO regions in Europe will be under surveillance, and Russian missiles will be ready, in extreme cases, to target the places where US weapons and military bases will be stationed.

It is worth noting that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko recently confirmed - on more than one occasion - his country's readiness to deploy Russian nuclear weapons on its territory, if NATO nuclear weapons appear in Poland.