TEHRAN - It
is true that Iran used to put down protests during days and weeks over the past years, but the recent movement has entered its third month and its increasing pace in some border cities raises questions about future scenarios for the demonstrations that have come to be known as the "Mahsa movement."
And while the Iranian opposition abroad insists on describing the protest movement as a comprehensive revolution that was about to win had it not been for being let down by world powers, the official authorities in Tehran did not go beyond describing the gatherings as hundreds and riding its wave by the enemies of the Islamic Republic.
Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi, the head of the judiciary, Mohsen Ejei, and other officials had called the protesters more than once for dialogue, and the protesters described the call as a mere trick to trap them and thwart their movement.
Observers in Iran attribute the prolongation of the "Mahsa protests" to their main strength represented by their wide spread throughout the country, unlike their predecessors, which were centered in the capital, Tehran, and a number of major cities. time passing.
In order to anticipate possible scenarios for the future of the protests in Iran, Al-Jazeera Net surveyed the opinions of a number of Iranian experts and researchers, as they agreed on its main lines and were divided about the possibilities of its continuation in the current period.
Iranian guide Ali Khamenei said that America's fingerprints can be seen in most of the anti-Iranian events (Iranian press)
Possible scenarios
In turn, the academic researcher in future strategies and studies, Mahdi Motahrania, believes in his interview with Al-Jazeera Net that the future of the ongoing protest movement in Iran will not deviate from the following four scenarios:
The first scenario: the authority interacts with the people's right to protest and works to meet the demands of the protesters, by recognizing the need for change in order to improve the citizen's life and guarantee his rights in accordance with the requirements of the modern era, and for the authorities to believe that society cannot be isolated from the environment in which other peoples live. And the technologies you harness to make life easier.
The second scenario: resisting change and turning the demand protests into riots in preparation for suppressing them. However, the ruling authorities must know that they will not be able to completely eliminate the protest movement unless its popular demands are met, and at that time the protests will remain like embers under the ashes and will start at the earliest possible opportunity.
The third scenario: denying the existence of popular demands and refusing to recognize the protests, and thus adopting a policy of confrontation as a result of the resulting political blockage, which will lead to accumulations of demands and the complexity of the crisis that may explode at any moment with dire consequences yet.
The fourth scenario: Undermining the regime from within and increasing external pressures, due to its insistence on not recognizing the protests and their demands until it drains its energies and opens the door wide to increase external pressure on the country.
Motahrania concluded that the Islamic Republic clung to the second scenario during the past two months, as it resisted change and turned the protests into riots as a prelude to suppressing them.
However, the Iranian researcher does not hide his fear that the confrontation between the Islamic Republic and the protest movement will turn into the fourth scenario, which will only bring more external pressure on the country and will not help resolve the crisis.
outside interference
Former diplomat Fereydoun Majlesi, the Iranian academic Motahrania, shares his opinion that the developments of the current protests in Iran are heading towards a dangerous turn due to the authority's failure to recognize the existence of popular protests and demands, but he believes that the fourth scenario will lead to a repeat of the experience of foreign intervention in Libya in 2011.
Speaking to Al-Jazeera Net, Majlissi says that the "Mahsa protests" are not the first of their kind in the Islamic Republic that managed to quell its sisters during the past years, adding that because of Iran's foreign policies stemming from its revolutionary constants and Tehran's constant challenge to the major powers, external pressures reached their peak during the decades. In the past, he is afraid to officially announce foreign alliances to confront the Islamic regime in Iran.
The former Iranian diplomat stated that the "Mahsa protests" coincided with the nuclear negotiations reaching a dead end, and the announcement of new nuclear steps in response to the decision of the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency, which criticized Tehran for what he called its lack of cooperation with the agency, in addition to the file of Iranian drones at war. Russia over Ukraine.
My council attributed the main reason behind the increase in external pressure on Tehran to its continuous threat to eliminate Israel and its official declaration that it is working to achieve this threat day and night, adding that the countries opposing such a policy have formed an alliance to confront Tehran, and that the continuation of the protests for a longer period may open the door for the intervention of the coalition. A foreigner who sees an opportunity to pounce on the Islamic Republic's regime, he said.
Mahdi Azizi suggests that the scenario of the Iranian authorities interacting with the demands of the demonstrators (Al-Jazeera)
imminent end
On the other hand, the Iranian researcher in political affairs, Mahdi Azizi, believes that the recent protests have been exaggerated through systematic media intimidation in the operating rooms run by foreign parties, as he put it, adding that his country's government recognizes the citizen's right to protest and demand movement, and that the concerned authorities have begun to study Broad social reforms, and this is what Parliament Speaker Muhammad Baqir Qalibaf referred to more than once.
It is not possible to compare the ongoing protests and the green movement that followed the 2009 presidential elections in Iran, according to Azizi, who explained to Al-Jazeera Net that the security community differentiates between peaceful protesters and rioters who are working to aggravate the situation in the country, which led to prolonging the protests.
He described the first scenario represented by the Iranian authorities interacting with popular demands and working to meet them as the most likely among the future scenarios of the Mahsa movement, stressing that his country is keen to ensure security with the least number of soldiers and avoid the use of brute force, which has caused the security forces to be accused of leniency with rioters.
Azizi pointed out that the number of security forces killed during the past two months exceeds the number of victims among the protesters, which proves the keenness of the security forces not to shed the blood of the protesting citizens, as he put it.
He said that there are orders to use the iron fist against rioters and those disrupting national security, especially elements directed from abroad.
The Iranian researcher, Azizi, considered that a large segment of the protesters rejects the extremist slogans and riots promoted by the Persian-speaking foreign media, such as burning mosques and Qurans, adding that the chances of the fourth scenario and external interference in Iran are almost zero, "to know the enemies of the Islamic Republic with the cards that the latter possesses." to defend itself."
The recent protest movement began in Iran in mid-September, after the so-called "morality police" arrested the young woman, Mahsa Amini, 22, in Tehran for wearing "inappropriate clothes," according to the authorities. Amini died after 3 days in the hospital after she fainted.
Mahsa's family says that she was beaten that led to her death in custody, which was denied by the Iranian police, and confirmed that she died of a heart attack.