In Kazakhstan, outgoing President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev gave a big win

Europe 1 with AFP 9:53 p.m., November 20, 2022

The outgoing president of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, was largely re-elected on Sunday, according to polls, at the head of the largest country in Central Asia, which lived through a dark year between bloody riots and ruthless clan struggle.

According to three exit polls, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev won between 82.2% and 85.52% of the vote in this former Soviet republic where 69.43% of the 12 million voters voted, after the first estimates of the Electoral Commission.

>> READ ALSO

- Riots in Kazakhstan: what consequences for the rest of the world?

The dolphin of Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is the vote "against all", credited with between 3.40% and 5.2% of the votes according to these polls.

Chaos in January 2022

"The people have clearly expressed their confidence in me and we must justify it," said Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

Rich in natural resources and located at the crossroads of important trade routes, Kazakhstan descended into chaos in January when protests against high prices escalated into riots, only to be brutally put down.

Balance sheet: 238 dead.

The country remains traumatized by this crisis and, a sign that tensions persist, the authorities announced on Thursday that they had arrested seven supporters of an opponent in exile accused of fomenting a "coup d'etat".

This early election was for Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, 69, a way to consolidate his power.

This trained diplomat has transformed this year into an implacable leader, firing on rioters in January, arresting relatives of his predecessor and mentor Nursultan Nazarbayev, then standing up to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

A "fair and open" campaign

This election is part of the long tradition of elections decided in advance in Kazakhstan, like previous presidential elections: 71% of the votes for Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in 2019 and 98% in 2015 for Nursultan Nazarbayev.

Despite this crushing score and the absence of competition, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev considered that this campaign had been "fair and open".

In Astana and Almaty, the two largest cities in the country, AFP saw several voters take pictures of themselves outside polling stations, many voters citing the "obligation" to show the photo to their employer on Monday.

Fifteen people demonstrated in Almaty to demand free elections and were all arrested by the police, AFP noted.

Opponents such as stooges

Despite the posters calling on voters to "make their choice" for the next seven years, the five opponents of Kassym-Jomart Tokayev acted as stooges.

Came to power in 2019 after the surprise resignation of the omnipotent Nazarbayev, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev officially undertook to cut the cord in favor of the January crisis, after having long been considered the henchman of his predecessor.

"The main thing is that there is no monopoly in power," Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said after voting.

But Nursultan Nazarbayev, at the head of Kazakhstan for three decades, was the first to congratulate him on his re-election, "indisputable proof of the unshakable faith of the people in (his) reforms (...) and praising his attitude "during the critical hours" for the country, with reference to January.

The candidate president had campaigned by carrying his project aimed at creating a "New Kazakhstan", more democratic and less unequal.

But economic difficulties persist, as do authoritarian reflexes.

And according to the International Monetary Fund, the social tensions, at the origin of the demonstrations of January, could reappear.

A sense of deja vu

Since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Kassym-Jomart Tokaev has been trying to strengthen ties with China, but also with Europe, as a counterweight to Russian influence.

In recent months, he has received visits from Russian, Turkish and Chinese heads of state, as well as senior European officials, and even Pope Francis.

And promises of democratic openness and economic reform are resonating with the electorate.

Like Amina Aïtjanova, a 46-year-old professor, who believes that President Tokaev has "managed the situation extremely well" after the events of January.

But this election supposed to open the era of "New Kazakhstan" gave a feeling of deja-vu, with a deserted political landscape, a facade of opposition and pressure from the authorities.

Enough to leave many disillusioned Kazakhs, like Alia Bokechova, a 19-year-old student in Astana.

"It's a waste of time, we already know who will win," she told AFP.

Before the election, international election observers from the OSCE regretted that their recommendations “relating to fundamental freedoms and the conditions of eligibility and registration of candidates” had “remained unaddressed”.