Andriy Yermak, head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, said he was confident in the conduct of a military operation to "return" Crimea.

He said this in an interview with Politico.

In turn, Deputy Head of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Vladimir Gavrilov, in an interview with Sky News, said that the “return” of Crimea by Ukraine is “only a matter of time.”

“And of course, we would like to do it as soon as possible,” Gavrilov said.

- For example, we can start an offensive on the Crimea by the end of December.

It's possible.

It is possible that this will happen."

In turn, the President of Ukraine Zelensky during the Bloomberg New Economy Forum on November 17 said that there would be no peace in Ukraine until Kyiv returned all its territories.

“Only the introduction of a ceasefire is not enough here,” Zelensky stressed, speaking via video link.

“Until we liberate all of our territory, we will not bring peace.”

Then he added that “the end of the war” would supposedly be put by “the de-occupation of Crimea and Donbass.”

  • Andrey Ermak

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  • © Metin Aktas/Anadolu Agency

Crimea claims

Recall that Crimea was reunited with Russia in March 2014 following a referendum that took place on the peninsula after a coup in Ukraine, during which nationalists came to power in the country.

According to the voting results, the vast majority of Crimeans - 96.77% - supported joining the Russian Federation.

Despite these results, Kyiv still considers Crimea its territory, which Moscow allegedly occupied.

The position of the Ukrainian leadership is also supported by Western countries.

At the same time, Ukrainian officials regularly make statements about their intention to “return” the peninsula.

So, in June, Zelensky’s representative in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Tamila Tasheva, who lives in Kyiv, said that Ukraine’s approaches to the return of Crimea after February 24 have changed and now Kyiv will achieve this by military means.

And the Russians who moved to its territory after reunification with Russia will be expelled from the territory of the peninsula.

According to her, Kyiv's key position is a return to the 1991 borders, including Crimea and Donbass.

Tasheva also said that some leaders of states are trying to persuade the Ukrainian authorities to compromise on this issue, but Kyiv will not agree to them.

In September, adviser to the head of Zelensky’s office, Mikhail Podolyak, on his social networks urged residents of the “occupied territories”, including the Crimean peninsula, to prepare for the “upcoming de-occupation” of the regions, suggesting that they equip shelters and stock up on enough water.

In addition, according to Podolyak, Ukraine allegedly began to develop evacuation routes for the population from Crimea.

The head of the Crimean parliament, Vladimir Konstantinov, called the statement by Zelensky's adviser absurd and called on the Kyiv authorities to prepare evacuation routes for themselves.

  • Mikhail Podolyak

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  • © Metin Aktas/Anadolu Agency

The Russian authorities have repeatedly stated that the belonging of Crimea to the Russian Federation is not negotiable, and any threats against the peninsula will be stopped.

In particular, this position was again voiced in September by the press secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov.

“Crimea is an integral part of the Russian Federation, so any claims to Russian territory will receive a proper response,” Peskov said.

At the same time, in the West, the attitude towards such plans of Kyiv is ambiguous.

Thus, the White House believes that Ukraine should decide for itself whether it is worth it to attempt a forceful seizure of Crimea.

At the same time, Washington refuses to clarify whether the United States is ready to support such intentions of Kyiv.

In turn, the former commander of the US Army in Europe, retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges suggested that Kyiv is indeed capable of launching an offensive against Crimea in the coming months.

However, a number of Western experts and the media expressed doubts about the ability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to carry out an operation to seize Crimea.

Thus, an article in the American edition of The Hill notes that Crimea is connected to the mainland by a strip of land only about 8 km wide, where any ground campaign of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be blocked by Russian troops.

And for a landing attack, Ukraine does not have helicopters and other technical means.

For these reasons, conducting such operations on protected coastlines is fraught with the risk of catastrophic failure, the authors of the material say.

A similar conclusion was reached by military experts who were interviewed by the American portal Defense One.

In their opinion, a Ukrainian invasion of Crimea would require an amphibious operation from the air and sea.

However, Kyiv does not have sufficient resources for this, analysts say.

In turn, the French newspaper Le Figaro in October published an article stating that European countries urging Ukraine to take Crimea by force were out of touch with reality.

According to French journalists, an attempt to attack the Armed Forces of Ukraine will turn into a failure, because the inhabitants of the peninsula feel Russian and will defend themselves.

In addition, an attack on the Crimea would cause a reaction from the entire population of Russia, writes Le Figaro. 

“Crimea is very well protected”

Kyiv's regular statements about its intention to carry out an attack on Crimea are most likely made for propaganda purposes and are designed for an internal audience, analysts believe.

“Such statements are made to cheer up the Ukrainian population.

They talk about big plans, the intention to move forward - no one has canceled information work and propaganda.

And Ukraine is doing this quite actively, ”political analyst Alexander Dudchak said in an interview with RT.

  • Flags of Russia and Crimea

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  • © Dmitry Makeev

In turn, Andrei Koshkin, a member of the Academy of Military Sciences of the Russian Federation, emphasizes that today Kyiv’s plans to conduct a military operation against Crimea look unrealistic, since Kyiv does not have the necessary resources for this.

“This is the most difficult military operation.

And the Armed Forces of Ukraine, even with the help of the West, cannot carry it out in its current state.

It takes a lot of resources, including human resources, to carry it out.

We need high-tech weapons systems.

It is necessary to use air, land and sea.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are not capable of this today, ”the analyst said in an interview with RT.

A similar opinion is shared by Oleg Nemensky, an expert at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies.

According to him, any attempt by Ukraine to attack the Crimea will turn into an inevitable failure for Kyiv.

“At present, such an operation seems almost a fantasy.

Crimea is very well protected by the Russian fleet and army, ”the expert said in a conversation with RT.

At the same time, Oleg Nemensky clarified that the Russian Federation should not ignore such threats, since "Kyiv has never abandoned plans to return Crimea by military means."

In turn, Alexander Dudchak pointed out that Western support only strengthens such intentions of Kyiv.

“Kyiv has human resources.

Ukraine sends more and more batches of mobilized people to the war zone.

In principle, they can destroy their people in this way for a very long time.

More than 2 million can be sent to the front line.

And the West is actively helping them with weapons and is not going to leave Ukraine alone,” the expert says.

Under these conditions, analysts consider it logical to strengthen the defense of Crimea, which is being carried out by the Russian Federation, since the military must foresee any scenarios.  

“We must always prepare for defense.

Any measures to protect the territories are justified, because quite large military operations are taking place very close by, ”says Nemensky.

A similar opinion is shared by Alexander Dudchak.

“Russia is reacting in a natural way, given the realities of today.

Work is being done on bugs, the control system is being improved, new types of weapons are being developed.

So such measures to strengthen the defense are absolutely adequate, ”concluded the analyst.