The world's population reaches 8 billion and the aging continues to accelerate. The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposes "optimizing the population development strategy"
Promote demographic dividend to talent dividend
Reporter Wu Jing Han Yadong
The United Nations announced that the world population will reach 8 billion on November 15, 2022.
According to the "World Population Prospects 2022" report recently released by the United Nations, the total global population will continue to grow in the next few decades, but the growth rate is expected to slow down.
According to the report, the global population is expected to increase to about 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050, peak at about 10.4 billion in the 2080s, and continue until 2100.
In addition, rising life expectancy, combined with falling fertility rates, will exacerbate the aging of the global population.
my country is a country with a large population in the world, and the population problem has always been an overall, long-term and strategic issue facing our country.
The report of the Twentieth National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed: "Optimize the population development strategy, establish a fertility support policy system, and reduce the cost of childbirth, childcare, and education. Implement a national strategy to actively respond to population aging, develop pension services and industries, optimize services for orphans and widowed elderly, and promote Realize that all elderly people can enjoy basic old-age care services.”
With the acceleration of population aging trend, will my country's labor supply be sufficient in the future?
How to promote the transition from demographic dividend to talent dividend?
The reporter interviewed Song Jian, a professor at Renmin University of China and deputy director of the Population and Development Research Center, and Niu Jianlin, a researcher at the Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
The average education level of the population has been steadily increased, and the construction of a healthy China has been promoted, so that people can live a long, good, and healthy life
Reporter: The quality of the population has steadily improved, and the level of education has increased significantly, which is an important feature of my country's population situation.
How does the development of education promote the improvement of population quality?
Niu Jianlin: In the past few decades, my country's education industry has developed rapidly, and the average education level of the population has steadily increased.
In the past ten years, my country has vigorously developed high school education, higher education and preschool education on the basis of comprehensive popularization of compulsory education and continuous consolidation.
At present, the national gross enrollment rates of high school and higher education are 91.4% and 57.8% respectively, an increase of 6.4 percentage points and 27.8 percentage points respectively compared with ten years ago.
The national gross enrollment rate of preschool education reached 88.1%, an increase of 23.6 percentage points over ten years ago.
The development of education has directly promoted the rapid improvement of the educational level of the population.
In 2020, the number of people with a college education per 100,000 people in my country will exceed 15,000, and the average years of education for the working-age population aged 16-59 will rise to 10.75 years, which is significantly higher than the results of the previous census.
These development achievements have laid an important foundation for the high-quality development of population, economy and society.
Reporter: The two major indicators to measure the quality of the population, in addition to the level of education, is the health status.
Can you talk about the observation of the health status of my country's population from the change of average life expectancy?
Niu Jianlin: When New China was founded, the average life expectancy in our country was only 35 years old.
Since then, my country's public health and medical service system has been continuously improved, and the people's physical fitness has been enhanced day by day.
Since 1990, the average life expectancy of the population in my country has increased at an average rate of nearly 3 years per decade.
By 2020, the average life expectancy of Chinese residents will be 77.93 years, slightly higher than the average level of middle and high-income countries in the world, and the gap with high-income countries will continue to narrow.
Compared with countries or regions at the same level of social and economic development, my country's current population health has obvious comparative advantages.
These achievements reflect the superiority of our social environment and system from the side.
The statistical results of population health indicators show that, taking the development goals set in the United Nations "2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development" as a reference, my country has completed a number of healthy development goals ahead of schedule.
However, it should be noted that there are still some challenges in the healthy development of my country's population.
Including the rise of adolescent mental health problems in recent years; various chronic diseases and sub-health risks threaten the health, well-being and quality of life of the population, and so on.
From the perspective of the whole life cycle, we must actively promote health protection and comprehensively improve the quality of our population.
Song Jian: The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to promote the construction of a healthy China.
Put the protection of people's health in the strategic position of priority development, and improve the people's health promotion policy.
At present, China's economy has shifted from a stage of high-speed growth to a stage of high-quality development, and China's population in the post-demographic transition period has also entered a new stage of high-quality development.
On the one hand, while continuously extending the average life expectancy, we are pursuing a higher quality of life.
The average healthy life expectancy indicator measures the average life expectancy in a healthy or non-disabled state. Through the implementation of the Healthy China strategy, the proportion of the average healthy life expectancy in the average life expectancy will be continuously increased, and the period of illness and disability will be shortened and compressed as much as possible. The time and proportion of the period, so that people not only live a long life, but also live a good and healthy life.
On the other hand, while continuously promoting the popularization of higher education, through the high-quality development of education, the quality of talents will be improved, and abundant labor resources will be transformed into human resources.
A comprehensive and objective view of the changing trend of my country's working-age population
Reporter: Compared with 2010, my country's working-age population aged 16-59 will decrease by more than 40 million in 2020, and the proportion of working-age population in the total population will also decrease.
How to rationally view the changing trend of the working-age population?
Song Jian: The working-age population is the main body of any social production and reproduction activities. The size and structural characteristics of the working-age population play a key role in population, social development, and economic growth.
In 2020, the working-age population aged 16-59 will be 880 million, with a large total and a relatively young average age.
Although my country's working-age population has begun to decline, it has decreased by more than 40 million compared with 920 million in the 2010 census, but it has increased by 70 million compared to 810 million in the 2000 census. The total labor force is still at historical high.
The proportion of working-age population in my country is also at a relatively high level.
Niu Jianlin: Take a comprehensive and objective view of the changing trend of the working-age population.
First, the decline in the working-age population is an inevitable consequence of the modern demographic transition.
In today's world, except for a few immigrant countries, most of the low-fertility countries that have completed the population transition have generally experienced or will soon experience the process of the working-age population from rising to falling.
Secondly, so far, my country's total working-age population still ranks first in the world. Compared with world economies of comparable economic size, my country's working-age population is far larger than the other.
Thirdly, because the decline in the size of the working-age population is accompanied by the aging of its age structure, the latter often has a more direct and profound impact on social production and reproduction.
To actively respond to changes in the working-age population, it is necessary to take into account the characteristics of changes in scale and structure, seize opportunities, actively promote the transformation of economic growth patterns and the optimization and upgrading of industrial structures, and effectively promote the long-term coordinated development of population changes and economic society.
Reporter: How to further improve the population quality, optimize the population structure, and realize the transformation from "demographic dividend" to "talent dividend"?
Niu Jianlin: The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that education, science and technology, and talents are the basic and strategic support for building a modern socialist country in an all-round way.
We must adhere to the priority development of education, self-reliance and self-improvement in science and technology, and the leadership and drive of talents, and accelerate the construction of a strong country in education, science and technology, and talents.
This points out the direction for us to further improve the population quality and realize the transformation from "demographic dividend" to "talent dividend".
Population quality and human capital are important foundations for talent dividends.
First of all, we must improve the quality of the population and accumulate human capital.
To this end, it is necessary to improve the health quality of the population, pay attention to the cultivation of workers' physical and mental quality and comprehensive quality; to strengthen school education and innovate vocational training; to cultivate innovative talents; to vigorously promote the spirit of model workers, labor spirit, and craftsman spirit, etc.
Secondly, it is necessary to create conditions and create an environment for talents to play their roles.
It is necessary to create favorable conditions and create a good environment, and strive to make the best use of people's talents.
It is necessary to improve the mechanism for the cultivation, introduction, and use of high-end talents and innovative talents, and focus on stimulating the creativity of scientific researchers, especially to stimulate the innovation and creativity of leading scientific and technological talents, strategic scientists, young scientists and other talent groups.
It is necessary to strengthen the combination of production, education and research, not only to cultivate more useful talents, but also to accelerate the transformation of scientific and technological achievements, and strive to form a virtuous circle of talent growth, technological innovation, and industrial development, so that my country's talent dividend will become more and more substantial.
In recent years, my country's "demographic dividend" is gradually changing into a "talent dividend".
The new advantage of "talent bonus" has gradually emerged, which is conducive to further promoting the transformation of economic development mode, upgrading of industrial structure, and improvement of total factor productivity.
Grasp the critical period to improve the quality of the population, transform the industrial structure, and actively respond to the aging population
Reporter: Population aging will be the basic national condition of our country for a long time to come. What kind of situation is my country's population aging facing?
Song Jian: At present, "decreasing birth rate and aging population" brings challenges to my country's economic and social development.
Fewer births and aging are complementary to each other. The "fewer births" brought about by the low fertility rate has exacerbated the aging of the population, and the aging of the childbearing age group is an important reason for the phenomenon of fewer births. The problem of "fewer births and aging" must be comprehensively addressed.
Population aging is the inevitable result of demographic transition.
On the one hand, the decline in mortality rate and the increase in average life expectancy have allowed more people to live to old age, and the number of elderly people has accumulated; on the other hand, the decline in fertility rate has increased the proportion of the elderly population in the total population.
The dual forces of death transition and fertility transition are driving the deepening of population aging.
China's population transition has two major characteristics: compression and advancement. The mortality rate and fertility rate have both declined rapidly in a relatively short period of time, which has a severe impact on the age structure. The population aging progresses rapidly, with large regional differences, and presents stage features.
At present, we should seize the critical period when the working-age population is relatively large and the labor resources are relatively abundant, and make adequate preparations for the arrival of a "severely aging" society by improving the quality of the population and transforming the industrial structure.
Reporter: What are the salient features of my country's population aging?
What effective measures have we taken to actively deal with population aging?
Niu Jianlin: Population aging is a normal state of population development faced by most countries in the world today.
According to the population data of various countries compiled by the World Bank, more than half of the countries and regions in the world have entered the aging society.
Compared with other countries, my country's population aging has distinct characteristics: first, the process of population aging in my country is ahead of the economic and social development process; Most of the aging countries in the world; Third, related to population migration and urbanization process, my country's population aging process presents the characteristics of urban-rural inversion and distinct regional imbalance.
At present, the aging degree of my country's rural population has surpassed that of urban areas, and the large-scale exodus of young people in underdeveloped areas has accelerated the process of population aging.
These characteristics further complicate the situation of population aging in my country and the challenges it faces.
The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposes to implement the national strategy of actively responding to population aging, develop pension services and industries, optimize services for widowed and lonely elderly, and promote the realization of basic pension services for all elderly people.
In order to actively respond to population aging, my country has introduced a series of targeted policy measures, development plans and system construction.
In the economic field, the policy of delaying the retirement age adapts to the reality of continuous improvement in population health and life expectancy, and is conducive to actively responding to population aging.
In the social field, the rapid development of my country's health and education has improved the accumulation of human capital, which will help cope with the impact of population aging on labor supply and economic development, and promote the improvement of people's livelihood and well-being under the situation of population aging.
my country's social security system has been continuously improved and perfected. The medical and old-age security system has achieved full coverage in urban and rural areas. The social service and support system for the elderly is also developing rapidly. played a positive role.
Optimizing the population development strategy and establishing a fertility support policy system
Reporter: Since the implementation of the "Guiding Opinions on Further Improving and Implementing Active Fertility Support Measures", what supporting measures have impressed you deeply?
Niu Jianlin: The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposes to optimize the population development strategy, establish a fertility support policy system, and reduce the cost of childbirth, childcare, and education.
In order to guide all localities and departments to implement fertility support policies, in August 2022, 17 departments including the National Health and Health Commission and the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Guiding Opinions on Further Improving and Implementing Active Fertility Support Measures". "Under the guidance of ", all localities and departments have carried out extensive exploration and practice around the new trend of marriage and childbearing, social services, parenting services and support, and educational support, and many supporting measures to promote active childbearing support have emerged.
For example, the National Medical Insurance Bureau stipulates that the cost of giving birth to three children for insured female employees shall be included in the payment scope of maternity insurance benefits; A childcare subsidy of 500 yuan is given to each child until the child is 3 years old.
These measures include not only services and support dedicated to meeting the specific needs of the public related to childbirth and removing barriers to marriage and childbearing, but also strategic measures focusing on long-term cultural guidance and shaping social values. Through the reconstruction of social atmosphere, new marriage and childbearing View shaping, to influence the practice of long-term marriage and childbearing behavior.
In the long run, these measures are expected not only to have positive effects on marriage and childbearing concepts, attitudes, and behaviors, but also to help create a harmonious and healthy family and social environment.
Song Jian: Actively responding to population aging has become a national strategy. The Medium and Long-term Plan for National Actively Responding to Population Aging and Opinions on Strengthening the Work on Aging in the New Era provide guidance for China's aging work in the new era. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period It is the beginning of the implementation of the national strategy of actively responding to population aging. Improving the policy system, strengthening elderly care services, improving the level of security, promoting system construction, and giving full play to the role of various forces, including the elderly themselves, are the focus of future work.
Since 2021, my country has implemented a three-child birth policy and supporting measures, and various localities have adopted specific measures tailored to local conditions.
At present, the key is the implementation of a package of supporting measures such as economic support, childcare services, and paid maternity leave, the reasonable sharing of childbearing costs and the construction of a childbearing-friendly social atmosphere, focusing on family needs, and balancing work and family for childbearing couples. The reshaping of concept of childbearing, the reduction of childbearing cost and the relief of childbearing pressure have boosted the willingness to have children and the level of childbearing to rise.
(China Discipline Inspection and Supervision News)