The repression in Chad "did away the little hope aroused by the national dialogue"

In Chad, the national reconciliation dialogue has given way to bloody repression.

On Friday November 11, the prosecutor of N'Djamena claimed that more than 600 people were arrested and imprisoned in the country of the violent demonstrations of October 20.

Local NGOs and opposition groups claim that these "roundups" have been going on daily.

These gatherings, at the call of the opposition, to denounce the extension of the transition as well as the maintenance of Mahamat Idriss Déby at the head of Chad, had given rise to bloody clashes, the results of which remain uncertain to this day.

This week, the two main opposition leaders, Succès Masra and Max Loalngar, announced that they had asked the International Criminal Court (ICC) to open an investigation into "crimes against humanity".

To take stock of this socio-political crisis, France 24 spoke with Roland Marchal, researcher at Sciences Po, specialist in Chad. 

France 24

Roland Marchal

 : This repression comes at the end of two dialogues launched by the transitional authorities led by General Mahamat Idriss Déby, one with the opposition forces and civil society, the other with the politico-military groups.

These negotiations enabled the government to incorporate a number of forces hostile to the regime in exchange for positions, while maintaining overall control.

When the two most radical opposition groups, the Transformers and Wakit Tama, who remained outside the negotiations, organized demonstrations, the government wanted to show its determination and the repression turned into a bloodbath. 

The authorities have reported about fifty victims, but many people are still missing and it is very likely that the real toll is more than a hundred dead.

With these demonstrations, the opposition managed to bring to light the profoundly authoritarian nature of the regime.

While some in Chad accuse the demonstrators of having knowingly provoked the security forces by resorting to violence themselves, the repression is completely disproportionate to these activists who, at no time, represented a real threat. for power.

The following days, the authorities continued this repression by means of mass arrests in particular, to stifle any hint of opposition.

In view of this repression exercised by the authorities, should the Inclusive and Sovereign National Dialogue (DNIS) be considered a failure

The fierce repression has shattered the little hope that the national dialogue has raised.

We can consider that this one was not totally useless because it gave rise to reflection on essential themes for the future of Chad, in particular on the resolution of community problems, the organization of the State and the functioning of local administration.

Positions have indeed been offered to opposition forces without, however, affecting the centralization of power around the presidency. 

The most glaring example is the statement by new Prime Minister Saleh Kebzabo, himself a former opponent, who called the protesters "rebels" seeking to seize power by force, without even calling for an independent investigation.

On paper, the opening of ministerial posts is an important signal, but it is clear that the practice of power remains the same. 

Meanwhile, power in N'Djamena remains led by the presidency with security organs that have locked down Chadian politics for decades.

Under these conditions, a real alternation in the next elections seems impossible. 

In addition to the staggering cost of the national dialogue, the opening up to members of the opposition and the creation of new positions in the senior civil service represent an additional investment for the nation.

These consequent expenses are made in a difficult social context where the populations need a help of the State which shows itself largely failing.  

Friday, the Peace and Security Council of the African Union (AU), which had met to examine the case of Chad, finally did not decree sanctions following the extension of the transition.

How can this be explained when in Mali, Guinea or even Burkina, the putschist powers have been excluded from regional organisations

First of all, it should be remembered that this vote was on the initiative of the President of the African Union Commission, Moussa Faki, himself a Chadian and former Prime Minister of Idriss Déby.

He had, in April 2021, rather supported Mahamat Idriss Déby by obtaining that the African Union does not sanction the military junta in N'Djamena.

If some consider today that he is trying to position himself for the next elections, I think on the contrary that he is in his role.

By prolonging the transition and lifting the ban on his participation in the next elections, Mahamat Idriss Déby has violated his commitments.

Regarding the vote, the absence of sanctions undeniably weakens the African Union because it confirms that Chad enjoys preferential treatment compared to some of its neighbors in West Africa.

Admittedly, the AU Peace and Security Council is made up of 15 members with their own interests and obtaining a consensus is of course not easy.

But it is difficult not to suspect the influence of Paris in this vote.

France is undoubtedly not satisfied with what is happening in Chad, but it accepts it once again because the French army considers its military presence in the country to be essential.

She sees N'Djamena as a privileged partner despite the brutality of the regime and prefers to believe that the political situation will return to normal.

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