Can the arrival of winter benefit the Russians in Ukraine?

• As the Russians have withdrawn from Kherson, the onset of winter on the Ukrainian front will require adjustments for both sides.

• Change of military strategy, sending of adapted equipment, troop morale, etc.

  After several months of conflict, certain aspects of the conflict will be crucial to take advantage of this period.

• Jean de Gliniasty and Jean-Claude Allard, two researchers at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris), believe that the arrival of winter will not upset the balance of power.

For Russia, he is a kind of totem.

A lucky charm when times are tough.

A strategist who can pull the country out of the quagmire in times of war.

We can imagine him with a long white beard, like the old daily newspaper

.

But above all, it embodies a season.

General Winter joins the Russian ranks.

In the wake of this fictional character, a well-established belief: that winter allows the Russians to impose themselves militarily.

Two historical examples are believed to support this theory: the rout of Napoleon's grand army in 1812 and the failed Nazi invasion during World War II.

“What killed the great army was not the winter, it was the fact of going back in its footsteps.

She had to go back on her way to come back and there was nothing left to eat, explains Jean de Gliniasty, researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris) and author of the book

.

During the winter of 1941, the Russians suffered from the cold as much as the Germans.

What made the difference at the time was their patriotic conviction.

»

The cold, an enemy known to both sides

And if Vladimir Putin praised the "patriotism" of his troops, the 300,000 soldiers mobilized did not join the Ukrainian front with enthusiasm.

“Russia has completed its units with mobilized soldiers who are not necessarily very motivated, who have not had extensive training.

Even if they are used to the harsh climate of Russia, they could be destabilized after having exchanged with the soldiers already on the spot who will tell them about the galleys.

On the other hand, the Ukrainians are used to this climate and have equipment adapted to the conditions”, analyzes Jean-Claude Allard, associate researcher at Iris specializing in military issues.

First bad news for the Russians.

The Kremlin orders its military forces on Wednesday to leave Kherson, victim of a Ukrainian counter-offensive.

The city was one of the main Russian captures at the start of the conflict.

"A rapid advance at the start of the conflict and then a succession of setbacks inevitably affects the morale of the troops", specifies the former general.

And so on future fights.

Smoother movement of armored vehicles in winter

On the pitch, both sides will have to adapt to the drop in temperatures.

“Premium to those who will maneuver.

The armored vehicles will be able to circulate better with the solidity of the soil, and it will be more complicated to bury themselves”, comments the former diplomat Jean de Gliniasty.

The nerve of winter could also be logistics.

#Ukraine 11/2 (21) With the end of the mud and the arrival of winter, the firmer ground will allow new operations (and make it more difficult to bury oneself).

It is therefore urgent for the RUS to force the UKR to use up their reserves.

pic.twitter.com/0iWcYeQcu9

— cedric mas (@CedricMas) November 2, 2022

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And the Russians take the problem seriously, even though they have encountered difficulties in this area since the start of the Ukrainian invasion.

A coordination council was launched on October 21 to alleviate the "chaos" denounced by the mobilized troops.

our file on the war in ukraine

On the 259th day of the conflict, the arrival of General Hiver did not seem to be enough to move the lines in favor of Russia.

The only reason for "hope" for the Russians: the attitude of Ukraine's supporters.

Could Paris, London, Washington and the others end up being tired of the conflict, especially as the consequences of the war (price of gas, etc.) are beginning to be felt?

"It's hard to say," conclude the researchers.

If the civilian populations are cold, they will react.

But France did not supply much Russian gas.

Perhaps Germany, which is more dependent…”

If the conflict gets bogged down, the two camps will then have to face, in the spring, an obstacle, able to redistribute the cards: mud, as at the very beginning of the conflict.

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