American pressure and threats did not work with Pyongyang
Pre-emptive diplomacy: the only way out of the crisis on the Korean peninsula
One of the cases of an intercontinental ballistic missile launch in North Korea after the failure of deterrence against it.
Reuters
US naval exercises off North Korea to put pressure on it.
Getty
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An entire year has seen an exchange of military provocations between North Korea and the US-South Korean alliance, and tensions have steadily increased.
Finally, North Korea's missile launches and US-South Korean military exercises have brought tensions on the Korean Peninsula to an entirely new and dangerous level.
Washington and Seoul held their largest-ever military exercises, and a North Korean ballistic missile landed off the coast of South Korea for the first time.
Immediately Seoul responded by firing an unprecedented number of missiles off the coast of North Korea.
In the midst of the continuous escalation, North Korea is preparing for its tenth nuclear test since the beginning of this year and some believe that it is ready to do so at any time of times.
In response, Washington and Seoul intensified their military exercises and deployments around the Korean Peninsula as a show of strong resolve and warning.
Each side is flexing its military muscles in a cycle of mutual provocations that carry unbearable risks.
Dangerous face
These threats are likely to lead to severe crises, and greatly increase the risk of armed conflict on the Korean peninsula.
In order to reduce tensions and avoid the worst crises, Washington and Seoul must end this spiral of dangerous confrontation, and take all necessary measures to re-engage Pyongyang in diplomacy and dialogue.
Park adds that one cannot rule out the possibility that the unprecedented level of deterrence shown by the US-South Korean side could influence Pyongyang's calculus and discourage further escalation.
The underlying goal is to demonstrate a high level of determination against the North Korean threat and compel Pyongyang to de-escalate.
But this reactionary policy can backfire.
Throughout history, US-South Korean campaigns to pressure military warnings for North Korea to reverse its aggression have often resulted in more hostility rather than deterrence, thus worsening the spiral of escalation.
This traditional pattern of escalation on the Korean peninsula has been observed many times before.
two main factors
In the latter analysis, Park says, it has often been proven that diplomacy, along with military restraint, are key factors in de-escalating tensions on the Korean peninsula.
The radical shift from confrontation to peaceful engagement in 2018 was the result of a series of summits involving South Korea, North Korea, and the United States, and reciprocal measures of military restraint;
The US-South Korean side suspended military exercises indefinitely, while the North Korean side decided on a moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile tests, and dismantled a major nuclear site.
These efforts have effectively reduced tensions and hostility, and created more opportunities for dialogue and negotiations.
reduce tension
At the moment, it appears that the United States and South Korea have no better option for dealing with North Korea than proactive diplomacy.
Although it will be necessary to take certain countermeasures against North Korea's possible next seventh nuclear test, the United States and South Korea will eventually have to find a way to de-escalate the rising tension and re-engage Pyongyang in the dialogue.
This may require a major policy shift from the ongoing maximum pressure campaign to proactive diplomacy.
This is particularly the case when the pressure strategy is likely to encounter limitations, as a result of Beijing's potential continued opposition to any additional economic sanctions against North Korea.
deteriorating relationship
In Park's view, unlike before 2018, relations between the United States and China have deteriorated significantly, China's skepticism about South Korea's role in the US regional strategy is deepening, and the prospect is increasingly slim that Beijing will assist such efforts to punish Korea. North and pressure on it at the expense of its good political relations with Pyongyang.
In 2013 and 2017, Chinese support, more economic and financial pressure on Pyongyang, and approval of UN Security Council resolutions, played an important role in forcing North Korea to de-escalate tensions.
In fact, poor relations with China will continue to constrain Washington and Seoul's ability to confront the North Korean nuclear threat.
This is the geopolitical reality of the Korean Peninsula.
Park said that although Beijing has always opposed further sanctions on North Korea in recent years, and is very likely to continue to do so, it has repeatedly expressed its willingness to support regional diplomacy for the North Korean regime.
In fact, China can play a serious role in facilitating dialogue and negotiations with North Korea, as demonstrated by its contribution to the six-party talks.
James Park is a researcher and fellow in the East Asia Program at the Quincy Institute of America
reduce tensions
James Park, a US researcher and fellow in the East Asia Program at the US Quincy Institute, said that proactive diplomacy is a solution to de-escalate military tensions and enhance regional cooperation to involve North Korea in it.
This may require more gestures and credible measures related to diplomacy and reassurance from the US-South Korean side.
Meanwhile, Washington and Seoul will have to consult more actively with Beijing on possible measures they can agree on and implement together to bring Pyongyang back to dialogue.
Amid the ongoing escalation, North Korea is preparing for its tenth nuclear test since the beginning of this year, and some believe it is ready to do so at any time.
In order to reduce tensions and avoid the worst crises, Washington and Seoul must end this spiral of dangerous confrontation, and take all necessary measures to re-engage Pyongyang in diplomacy and dialogue.
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