American analyst Scott Snyder: Taking advantage of geopolitical differences
North Korea escalates its military provocations to achieve several goals
Repeated US-South Korean military exercises provoke Pyongyang.
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In recent weeks, North Korea has entered its most intense period of missile testing ever, and American analyst Scott Snyder says that along with dozens of tests it conducted from September to November, including medium-range ballistic missiles and intercontinental ballistic missiles;
It is part of a long-term plan by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to boost his country's military capabilities.
Snyder adds that the goal of planning the extensive tests is to express North Korea's dissatisfaction with the series of military exercises conducted by the United States and South Korea since last September.
It is important to note the broader ambitions behind Pyongyang's intense activity in exploiting geopolitical tensions, Snyder, an expert at the US Council on Foreign Relations, said in a report published by the council.
Pyongyang could escalate its missile testing program with relative impunity in a geopolitical environment marked by deep differences between the United States, China, and Russia.
North Korea has cemented its alignment with both Moscow and Beijing by pledging closer strategic and tactical cooperation, providing Pyongyang with cover for more aggressive testing.
In the summer of 2022, China and Russia blocked a UN resolution imposing sanctions on North Korea over its missile tests over Japan, thwarting US-led efforts to extend sanctions against North Korea for the first time.
North Korea now realizes that there is a green light to continue conducting many types of missile tests, possibly even a nuclear test with relative impunity.
He added that under these circumstances, the United States would need to strengthen coordination with Japan and South Korea if it wanted to restrict North Korea's military development.
Snyder added that the missile tests by North Korea are also aimed at testing US commitments to South Korea.
strength test
Bold North Korea tested the full range of US and South Korean deterrence measures, from low-key domestic provocations to testing US extended deterrence pledges to defend South Korea from nuclear attack.
North Korea has defied the Northern Maritime Limit Line, a de facto maritime boundary with South Korea that Pyongyang does not recognize, with a ship incursion, artillery bombardment, air exercises and a short-range missile launch that came close to South Korea's Ulleung Island, triggering security alerts.
These tests, which were intended to be political and military tests for the administration of South Korean President Yoon Soon-yeol, were met with an effective response from the two allies, forcing the North Korean ship to retreat to its side from the Northern Maritime Limit Line, and this was a sign of reciprocal response to North Korea's establishment Firing artillery and missiles near South Korea.
Snyder explained that the missile tests also demonstrated Pyongyang's ability to take proactive measures at a time when South Korea moves to develop its deterrence capacity in response to North Korea's nuclear development.
Seoul has focused on missile defense, preemptive attacks, and a strategy it calls "comprehensive punishment and retaliation."
The Yeon-sun administration emphasized these capabilities as the linchpin of its policy of deterring nuclear-armed North Korea.
Guidance
In response to President Yun's public statements highlighting South Korea's preemptive capabilities, Pyongyang issued a directive on the preemptive use of nuclear weapons against South Korea, and tested short-range ballistic missiles capable of delivering a tactical nuclear weapon to its target.
The emerging competition over preemptive capabilities raises tensions between the two Koreas, and requires closer coordination between the United States and South Korea to ensure a unified response.
North Korea aims to enhance its nuclear attack capabilities, while rejecting denuclearization talks with the United States.
And Pyongyang's ongoing nuclear and missile tests bring it closer to underlining the United States' vulnerability to a North Korean nuclear attack.
doubts
Such a test also attempts to exploit South Korea's suspicions about the United States' willingness to defend Seoul against a nuclear-armed North Korea.
A nuclear test, which will be North Korea's first since September 2017, and its seventh, is likely to intensify such discussions, causing tensions between alliance partners that North Korea could exploit to achieve its strategic goals.
And if North Korea notices that it is losing control of the escalation it started, any return to diplomatic talks could provide a way to ease tensions, but under these circumstances the talks themselves are unlikely to make progress.
Snyder concluded his report by saying that North Korea's primary purpose in returning to talks would be to bring tensions back under control, not to engage in good faith in negotiations on denuclearization, which remains the common goal of South Korean and US policy toward North Korea.
Pyongyang could escalate its missile testing program with relative impunity in a geopolitical environment marked by deep differences between the United States, China, and Russia.
The goal of planning the extensive tests is to express North Korea's dissatisfaction with the series of military exercises that the United States and South Korea have been conducting since last September.
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