Growing internal anger and outward protest fall short of what is needed
Calculated limits to outside support for protests in Iran
A demonstration to demand the rights of Iranian women in Berne, Switzerland.
EPA
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On October 21, 2022, the National Council of Resistance of Iran announced that the current protests taking place in Iranian cities against the background of the death of the girl, Mahsa Amini, have killed more than 400 and arrested more than 20,000 people so far.
For its part, the European Union announced, on October 17, imposing sanctions on 11 individuals and four Iranian entities, accusing them of participating in the repression of demonstrators.
Demonstrations continue
The protests in Iran have entered their seventh week in a row, and although they are not the first to confront the regime in Tehran, their continuation during this period, without the regime’s ability to quell them or weaken them, gives them unique characteristics that were not present in previous cases, and it is possible to identify the most prominent dimensions that they witnessed. Those protests during the recent period are as follows:
1- New groups joined the protests
The current protests witnessed an expansion of the popular groups participating in them, as the workers of the oil sector in refineries, such as Abadan, Kangan, the Bushehr Petrochemical Project and others, entered the current protests, and this matter carries a remarkable indication, related to the historical role played by this group in overthrowing the Shah’s regime, and the success of the 1979 revolution. .
Although the Iranian regime denied any connection between the oil workers’ strikes and the ongoing protests, and claimed that the reason was that they had not received their salaries for two months, reports indicated that, in recent days, they had threatened to join the protests if the regime did not stop the killings and arrests of demonstrators.
This group also bears double discontent with the regime, for reasons related to the problems it suffers from depriving them of their economic and social rights, as well as the dominance of the Revolutionary Guards over the oil sector, which explains the recurring strikes and sit-ins carried out by this group.
On the other hand, doctors in Iran participated in the current protests, as a number of them organized demonstrations in several cities, such as Tehran, Isfahan and others, raising slogans “From Shiraz to Kurdistan, Iran has become a cemetery”, in addition to the teachers’ participation in strikes and open sit-ins, in protest against The killing and arrest of a large number of schoolchildren during the current demonstrations.
2- Continuing the crackdown on protesters
The Iranian regime followed the method of suppressing the protests, which was manifested in the use of excessive force against the protesters, which resulted in the death toll reaching more than 400 people, in addition to the arrest of more than 20 people, in about 19 provinces, in various Iranian cities, And if they are concentrated in Sistan, Baluchistan, Mazandaran, Gilan, Kurdistan and Tehran, according to what the Iranian opposition has announced.
This is in addition to the judicial authorities prosecuting those arrested in the protests on flimsy charges related to “assembly and conspiracy against the country” and “disturbing public order”, in addition to issuing a list of charges against a number of them, including “moharebeh”, a charge that opens the door to a penalty. execution.
The authorities continue to restrict Iranians' use of the Internet.
3- Renewed clashes in Sistan and Baluchestan
The city of Zahedan, the center of the Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchestan, witnessed large-scale protests on October 21, in which hundreds participated, chanting anti-regime slogans. last September.
In response to the violence used by the authorities, Revolutionary Guards were targeted, which was repeated several times, the last of which was on October 25, when it was announced that two guards had been killed.
Despite the authorities’ attempt to justify that their security campaign in the city came in response to the armed Sunni “Jaish al-Adl” group, which is active in the area, attacking three police stations, the reality indicates that the regime’s real fear stems from the exploitation of the ongoing unrest, By Baloch rebel groups to create chaos and attack police stations.
4- Cross-border military escalation
The regime in Tehran seeks to divert attention from the current protests, and to convey messages, both outside and inside, of its readiness to use force.
Just as the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has repeatedly bombed sites of armed groups opposed to the regime in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, using drones and ballistic missiles, it has also conducted military maneuvers in Ardabil and East Azerbaijan provinces on the northern border with the Republic of Azerbaijan.
Although these maneuvers aim to deliver warning messages to the Azerbaijani side, not to change the political geography of the region, and isolate Iran from Armenia by controlling the Zangezur corridor located on the border between the last two countries, they are considered an attempt by Iran to prevent any cooperation between Azerbaijan and the minority Azeris in the north of the country, similar to what is happening between opposition groups in Iraqi Kurdistan and the Kurdish-populated areas in western Iran, which may reinforce the separatist tendencies of that minority.
symbolic external movements
Compared to previous movements in 2009, 2017, and 2019, this wave of protests received symbolic Western support, and this support manifested itself both at the official and unofficial levels.
This can be reviewed as follows:
1- Tightening pressure and sanctions on Tehran
The West and the European Union are intensifying their sanctions against the Iranian regime, for its use of repression against the protesters. In addition to imposing sanctions on the Iranian “moral police,” and senior security and military officials, since the beginning of the protests in mid-September 2022, it has also held talks with “Elon Musk.” The owner of SpaceX, with the aim of launching Starlink technology, as a potential solution to provide Internet to Iranians via satellite, after being restricted by the authorities, although it is not clear whether Starlink transmission dishes have been deployed inside Iran or not.
This is in addition to Canada imposing three successive packages of sanctions targeting officials responsible for suppressing protests in Iran, including the "morality police" and leaders of the Ministry of Interior and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, as Britain did the same.
2- Continuing protests abroad
The current protests in Iran have received wide support from Iranians abroad, in addition to sympathizers with the protests from citizens of those countries.
And it came to the demonstrators attacking the embassies and centers of Iran abroad.
The American capital, Washington, witnessed large demonstrations by Iranians residing in the United States, and Iranians of American origin, chanting slogans "Beware, we are united", in a remarkable and unprecedented sign of the unification of the demands of Iranians abroad, about the demand for the victory of the protests and the collapse of the regime.
On the other hand, the German capital, Berlin, witnessed the largest march in support of protests abroad, in which about 80,000 people participated, in addition to what other cities in Canada, Australia, and others witnessed.
3- A European call for the establishment of a mechanism to hold those responsible for repression to account
The European Union announced that it would submit a draft resolution to the United Nations to form an international investigation and accountability mechanism for violations by the Iranian authorities against the demonstrators, a mechanism that would impose legal and human rights sanctions against those responsible for the repression in Iran. This mechanism, so as not to set a precedent, is employed in subsequent cases.
New generation
It can be said that Iran is witnessing a state of escalating protests, which is mainly due to the emergence of a new generation of Iranians who do not believe in the values and principles of the 1979 revolution, which resulted in the current regime.
In light of the latter's ignoring of popular demands, which are now focused on improving living conditions, attaining social and political freedoms, and the authorities' reliance on the repressive method in dealing with protests, it is likely that they will continue and escalate in the coming period.
■ The Iranian regime used the method of suppressing the protests, which was manifested in the use of excessive force against the protesters.
■ The regime in Tehran seeks to divert attention from the current protests, and to convey messages, both outside and inside, of its readiness to use force.
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