To analyse

North Korea: "Going into a conflict is nobody's will"

In this photo provided by the South Korean Ministry of Defense, two US Air Force B-1B bombers accompanied by fighter jets flying over the South Korean peninsula during the 'Vigilant Storm' exercise, in South Korea South, this Saturday, November 5, 2022. AP

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3 mins

Pyongyang fired four new short-range missiles this Saturday, November 5, towards the Yellow Sea, according to Seoul.

Shortly before, the South Korean army had announced the participation this Saturday afternoon of the American supersonic heavy bomber B-1B in the “Vigilant Storm” exercises.

Analysis of the situation with Jean-Vincent Brisset, associate researcher at Iris.

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Seoul and Washington conducted extensive joint aerial exercises in South Korea on Saturday, deploying two B-1Bs, supersonic bombers from the US Air Force, as well as " 

 ”, according to a press release from the South Korean general staff.

These so-called “vigilant storm” maneuvers, which began on Monday, October 31, angered North Korea.

After a record series of missile launches in the middle of the week, Pyongyang on Saturday launched four short-range missiles towards the Yellow Sea.

It is again the army of South Korea which informs, saying to have detected these launches, according to a press release, “ 

(Korean name of the Yellow Sea, editor’s note)

 a.m.

These shootings illustrate the new episode of a spectacular rise in tensions on the Korean peninsula this week.

In what context does this new show of force fit and is there a real risk of confrontation?

Response from

, associate researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris), interviewed by

, from the international editorial staff of RFI.

Most of the annoyances between North Korea and the rest of the world are blackmail and test annoyances.

And there, we are in something extremely interesting, because the Biden administration is entangled with its absolute support for Ukraine, with its desire at the same time to strike China, which is designated as the great adversary and against which maneuvers and provocations on the part of the United States are increasing at the present time.

There are the midterms that will almost certainly weaken the Biden administration.

Under these conditions, it is in the logic of North Korea to try to see if we can not try a little more, to see how it will react.

There was a blessed time for North Korea, it was during the Obama administration where,

in the name of strategic patience, North Korea was allowed to do whatever it wanted from the point of view of missile and nuclear tests.

So, I think there is little reason to imagine that there is a conflict;

there could be big incidents, but I don't think we can go into a conflict, it's nobody's will.

North Korea knows very well that it has a nuisance capacity, but that it does not have a combat capacity.

is nobody's will.

North Korea knows very well that it has a nuisance capacity, but that it does not have a combat capacity.

is nobody's will.

North Korea knows very well that it has a nuisance capacity, but that it does not have a combat capacity.

Pyongyang called the “Vigilant Storm” exercise an “ 

 ”.

The regime threatened Seoul and Washington to “ 

”.

This series of maneuvers is the largest ever jointly organized by South Korea and the United States.

Initially scheduled until Friday, the exercises have been extended until Saturday after North Korea has increased its missile launches in recent days.

The B-1B is described by the United States Air Force as the " 

 ."

Its deployment is seen by Pyongyang as a significant threat.

Aerial maneuvers are of particular concern to the Kim regime.

►Read again: The two Koreas engage in a show of force in the air

North Korean fire: European reaction

The European Union on Saturday November 5 condemned the significant increase in “ 

 ” missile firings operated by North Korea, deemed “ 

 ”.

A " 

 " on the part of Pyongyang, according to a statement by the head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, who sees in it " 

 " of the intentions of the North Korean regime "

”.

" 

 ,” he added, according to a statement. 

" 

", considers European diplomacy, which believes that North Korea's actions " 

 ,” under the NPT.

The EU reaffirms its solidarity with Japan and South Korea, and again calls on North Korea for dialogue.

With agencies

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• North Korea

• South Korea

• United States

• Defense