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United States: an extremely polarized country for the midterm elections
A polling place in Harlingen, Texas preparing for the U.S. midterm elections, Oct. 28, 2022. © Denise Cathey/The Brownsville Herald via AP
Text by: Christophe Paget Follow
4 mins
A week before the midterm elections in the United States, according to the polls, the Democrats are struggling to keep the Senate and the House of Representatives.
The vote will take place under conditions of extreme polarization between Republicans and Democrats.
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The polarization in the United States culminated six years ago in the coming to power of Donald Trump.
Since then, the gap has widened further and some Americans are beginning to get tired of it.
As proof, the polls according to which they say they are dissatisfied with their policies braced on their positions.
But with the American system, it is difficult for a third party to emerge.
Voters therefore always vote Republican or Democrat, but rather in a negative way.
"
We are not so motivated to vote for our candidate
", explains Antoine Yoshinaka, professor of political science at the State University of New York, "
but we rather want to ensure that the other candidate is not elected.
So we vote against the opposite party rather than for our candidate.
»
The other consequence of this polarization is “
affective polarization
”
,
which is played out at the level of the emotions felt in relation to the opposing party.
For example, if you are Republican, explains Antoine Yoshinaka, “
you hate democrats: you find them dishonest, you find that they lack morality, etc.
So we are almost attacking the character of the people who support the opposing party, rather than the public policies
” they are proposing.
“Normalized” electoral violence
The consequence of these tensions is that more and more Americans believe, according to recent polls, that "
in certain circumstances or in all cases, violence is a legitimate response to political debate
", notes Antoine Yoshinaka.
A certain anxiety is rising in the population.
"
It seems that Americans are still living a lot in the aftermath of January 6, 2021
," analyzes Christophe Cloutier Roy, researcher at the Observatory on the United States of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair in Canada.
He speaks
of "a kind of normalization of tensions, of the idea that an election is accompanied by a risk of violence
", both on the side of the Democrats and the Republicans.
►Also listen: Witnesses to the News - United States: why are the midterm elections so important?
The specialist has traveled the United States in recent days, and says he feels “
this nervousness, this anguish, particularly when speaking to people who work for political parties.
They tell us, on the side of the Democrats, that we are afraid to see Donald Trump return to power in 2024, that we are still very anxious, compared to January 6, 2021
”
.
On the Republican side, “
the anguish comes rather from the fact of looking at their country which is changing under the management of the Democrats who control the two chambers of Congress and the White House, and where we are afraid of losing certain values.
»
Republicans playing on fears
And Republicans are playing on those fears by claiming that Democrats
are rigging the election
.
Assertions – otherwise devoid of any foundation – which could keep their voters away from the polls, but the Republican Party is counting on the opposite.
“
The Republican discourse to counter this possible apathy of their voters
is
to say: we will simply go and vote en masse,
analyzes Christophe Cloutier-Roy.
That way, the Democrats won't be able to find enough fake ballots – or whatever theory they're putting forward – to finally allow them to win.
»
And the specialist takes the example of the Secretary of State, responsible in several States for managing the organization of the polls: "
we really have a partisan transformation of these elections, where we say:
'elect me, and I will make sure there is no more theft like in 2020"
.
Obviously, several people pointed out the irony of saying: how can you say that the election was rigged in 2020, and now ask to be elected with the same process.
»
A large turnout expected
In fact, while midterm elections traditionally do not mobilize voters, polarization and fears do.
Antoine Yoshinaka recalls that "
the last time we were very polarized in the United States was at the beginning of the 20th century, an era when there were a lot of conflicts between the two parties and voter turnout was very high.
".
A phenomenon that we find today.
If in 2014, turnout had been very low – “
it was a bit of a shame for the first self-proclaimed democracy
”, recalls Lauric Henneton, teacher at Versailles Saint-Quentin University – in 2018, “
it was enough to to have Trump: record participation, practically at a presidential level
, ”recalls the specialist.
On November 8, 2022, we therefore expect a very high turnout "
because the Republicans are in a vengeful state of mind and the Democrats are ultra-mobilized by the fear of seeing the Republicans impose a certain number of their ideas on abortion, environmental issues, etc.
»
Finally, in the latest example of this polarization and these tensions, certain Republican candidates refused to say whether they would recognize the results of the November 8 elections.
►Also read: Press review of the Americas - midterm elections in the United States, inflation at the heart of the Democrats' campaign
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